hm8 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Day 2 to Day 3 Outlooks skip past SEMI....DTX AFD sounds a bit more promising THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPING UNCERTAINTIES STAND...BUT WILL SAY THE NAM THERMAL PROFILE IS GREATLY PREFERRED OVER THE GFS (PECULIARITIES IN SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS). AS LONG AS CIN IS ABLE TO ERODE BY THE AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASED TO A HIGH CHANCE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNFAVORABLE ISSUES WITH THE SATURDAY SETUP...THAT BEING THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ALOFT (RESIDE WILL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES) AND IT IS POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE COULD FALL APART ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST GUESS ON INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE BRINGS A GOOD BET FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 Day 2 to Day 3 Outlooks skip past SEMI....DTX AFD sounds a bit more promising THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPING UNCERTAINTIES STAND...BUT WILL SAY THE NAM THERMAL PROFILE IS GREATLY PREFERRED OVER THE GFS (PECULIARITIES IN SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS). AS LONG AS CIN IS ABLE TO ERODE BY THE AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASED TO A HIGH CHANCE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNFAVORABLE ISSUES WITH THE SATURDAY SETUP...THAT BEING THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ALOFT (RESIDE WILL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES) AND IT IS POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE COULD FALL APART ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST GUESS ON INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE BRINGS A GOOD BET FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. Saturday looks pretty good to me...going to be on the south edge of the good shear and the north edge of the cap. Just need a trigger...instability is plentiful so things should go severe if the weak cap can be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 if something decides to pop on the eastern side of the instability gradient.. first time of the year getting RUC forecasted CAPE values over 10,000 j/kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 HRRR isn't showing much of anything in the risk zone today. Then again, it did show discrete supercells firing in W ND last night. Lots of sunshine right now in southern Manitoba. We'll see if the weak convection this morning was able to put down any low level boundaries to aid in development late this afternoon. If things can fire, there is a lot of energy to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Nice looks vis sat loop right now, you can really see who anything that does form will take a hard right turn with a nice instability feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 let's make it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I'd like to believe it could happen. It really is a no-lose situation for someone who is intrigued by extreme summer weather: either we get some convection, or we get likely record breaking heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 HRRR showing some pretty nice bender action, multiple rounds of storms firing over the easter lake and pushing SSW into northeast Illinois. Hard to buy into but would be cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Wow, that's just ridiculous juice... Also, if hodograph size increases somehow tomorrow, we could have something significant for Central MN to Northern MN/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I swear, this is the kind of luck I'm bringing to Milwaukee when I'm here. Last week was by far the most interesting severe weather week of the year, and guess where I was? Maine. Now we're back to storms just missing us in all directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Saturday looks pretty good to me...going to be on the south edge of the good shear and the north edge of the cap. Just need a trigger...instability is plentiful so things should go severe if the weak cap can be overcome. This upcoming setup is similar to the June 4th setup for us, and we know how well that one played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Going to be a great night for relaxing at the beach with a smart phone sick light show in the making Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Going to be a great night for relaxing at the beach with a smart phone sick light show in the making lake breeze now well inland and almost to PWK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 This upcoming setup is similar to the June 4th setup for us, and we know how well that one played out. I was thinking the same thing, but I still feel the cap was pretty close to breaking on June 4th (had a lot of TCU around 3 p.m. that day) so I guess we can give it another go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Decent line moving SSE across southern Lake Michigan. Lake/Porter counties should be getting it during the 8:30-9:00 timeframe. Edit: nvm...looks like I had some old data on LOT. Line will be coming in very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 pretty good severe warned storm east of ENW offshore heading SSW and its attempting to backbuild smaller cells. Also, its east of pretty much any instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Nice cell/line with 74dbz up to nearly 30kft with the cell just east of Racine not too long ago. Likely some nice sized hail with it out over the lake. Racine just gusted to 66mph. It's moving south-southwest, which may bring it into the city in about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I had to do a double take when i saw the radar in motion...i thought I was seeing a Lake effect snow event at first glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Alek should be pumped. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...GREATER CHICAGO METRO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 010107Z - 010130Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR NERN IL AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN IND /GREATER CHICAGO METRO/. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING WWD ACROSS SERN WI AND NERN IL. 00Z GRB RAOB SHOWED AMPLE ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /2400 J/KG MUCAPE/ ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A STOUT PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO NLY IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS--INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. RADAR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE STORMS OVER SRN LAKE MICH DEVIATING TO A WEST OF SOUTH COMPONENT...FAVORING THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS INTO THE GREATER CHICAGO METRO OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. KRAC RECENTLY MEASURED A 57 KT WIND GUST. LARGE TO PERHAPS VERY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AREAS OF THE CHICAGO METRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 815 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS PARTS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM 815 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. TH OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 577...WW 578... DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS OVER SRN LM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR NOT ONLY VERY LARGE HAIL BUT DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Sickkkk light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Sickkkk light show Enjoy, should be a good show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 MKE radar showing what may be a couplet just NE of WAUKEGAN as the RFD part skims the lakeshore BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 821 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ZION TO BEACH PARK TO 11 MILES EAST OF BEACH PARK... AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... GURNEE...GRANDWOOD PARK AND WAUKEGAN AROUND 830 PM CDT. GAGES LAKE...THIRD LAKE...GRAYSLAKE AND PARK CITY AROUND 835 PM CDT. LIBERTYVILLE...MUNDELEIN...LAKE FOREST AND HIGHLAND PARK AROUND 840 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 This reminds me of 8/15/07, the major supercell event over NE Lake/Porter Counties and points SE into Marshall County, with intense supercells riding off the lake from sunset and later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Apparently Matt Petkovic had a tornado near Kenosha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 MKE radar showing what may be a couplet just NE of WAUKEGAN as the RFD part skims the lakeshore BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 821 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ZION TO BEACH PARK TO 11 MILES EAST OF BEACH PARK... AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... GURNEE...GRANDWOOD PARK AND WAUKEGAN AROUND 830 PM CDT. GAGES LAKE...THIRD LAKE...GRAYSLAKE AND PARK CITY AROUND 835 PM CDT. LIBERTYVILLE...MUNDELEIN...LAKE FOREST AND HIGHLAND PARK AROUND 840 PM CDT. Now a very intense couplet offshore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo9 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Watch issued for the area, storms heading southbound down the lake.. .. This is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 826 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0820 PM WATER SPOUT 9 ESE WINTHROP HARBOR 42.44N 87.67W 06/30/2011 LMZ777 IL TRAINED SPOTTER WATER SPOUT SPOTTED EAST OF ZION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 0800 PM TSTM WND GST KENOSHA 42.58N 87.82W 06/30/2011 E75 MPH KENOSHA WI TRAINED SPOTTER SEVERE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER POLES SNAPPED. TIME ESTIMATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobChgo9 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 826 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0820 PM WATER SPOUT 9 ESE WINTHROP HARBOR 42.44N 87.67W 06/30/2011 LMZ777 IL TRAINED SPOTTER WATER SPOUT SPOTTED EAST OF ZION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ILC097-010145- /O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0106.110701T0121Z-110701T0145Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 821 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ZION TO BEACH PARK TO 11 MILES EAST OF BEACH PARK... AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... GURNEE...GRANDWOOD PARK AND WAUKEGAN AROUND 830 PM CDT. GAGES LAKE...THIRD LAKE...GRAYSLAKE AND PARK CITY AROUND 835 PM CDT. LIBERTYVILLE...MUNDELEIN...LAKE FOREST AND HIGHLAND PARK AROUND 840 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE LAKE BLUFF...HIGHWOOD AND METTAWA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR WITHOUT ANY RAIN. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER OR RAIN BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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