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Sunday April 10th severe outbreak


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The SPC still has the moderate risk for day 1. So you're saying that's a bad forecast?

:huh: no? The MDT day 1 is certainly warranted. And I can't say that's a bad forecast. I can only say that I would disagree with the Day 3 MDT b/c at that time (and we still have some of these issues now), possibility of moisture mixing out, LCL's, very strong EML preventing pre-frontal convection, veered winds at the surface were potential fly in the ointments... it's just that I had more uncertainty about this event than usual which is why strong wording from SPC/NWSFOs/posters here have surprised me.

Overall, it's nothing... really. Sorry for bringing it up.

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Kinda been thinking WI was more the hot spot for this set up and still seems to be the case. Down here in Eastern Iowa we are to far removed from the best dynamics and had to rely on storms being more discrete which the models have all but taken away. In any case I'm heading out to WI now to see the family and have a nice time, unfortunately I'm going to be close to the hot bed of activity I think so if I can I will try and get some good pics. Internet reception with the mobile cards up there is spotty where I'll be at so wish me luck.

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It shouldn't be all that surprising that the models backed off on this ....look at past winter storms that were weaker than earlier indicated this season as examples. Nothing we haven't see before. Besides, enjoy the 80F weather. Though it is quite a downer after reading the LOT AFD yesterday (though, he did offer a fair warning of what could easily go wrong, and well, unfortunately, that seems to be the direction.)

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The apparent removal of a pre frontal trough as a focus for convection seems to be the killer as far as a major tornado outbreak goes, which is what many of us were expecting given the model data up to last night's NAM.. Now we have to rely on fronts and forcing to break the cap. Yet I find it ironic with a moderate risk 15 % hatched tor prob over WI and a public outlook many of us are still disappointed.

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Our team staying in SO IL. We have been targeting W NW IL for days, but has continued shifting to a WI event. Confirmed this morning. We not expecting much overnight here but will be ready and take what we get. B4 bed last night, had a feeling the energy of system was still trending to far out of range. Good job everyone that chased and reported last night. Great photos and vids!

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Though it is quite a downer after reading the LOT AFD yesterday (though, he did offer a fair warning of what could easily go wrong, and well, unfortunately, that seems to be the direction.)

I completely agree. Hoping to wake up this morning to a high risk. We certainly have a high risk for a major bust, which was not exactly what I had in mind. Oh well, I will take the patented "wait and see" attitude. Time to hit the links for a quick 9 this morning!

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The apparent removal of a pre frontal trough as a focus for convection seems to be the killer as far as a major tornado outbreak goes, which is what many of us were expecting given the model data up to last night's NAM.. Now we have to rely on fronts and forcing to break the cap. Yet I find it ironic with a moderate risk 15 % hatched tor prob over WI and a public outlook many of us are still disappointed.

lol good point. I think WI is primed for a major outbreak. Areas further south are going to have a more difficult time getting a high-end outbreak.

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It's 50 right now, with an expected high of 82. That will be quite the warmup if we actually reach the 80s. Have also been downgraded to slight risk, and only a 50% chance of storms, a bit disappointing. Anyone know what the 0-6 bulk wind shear is expected to be in SE Wisconsin now? It was forecasted to be 60 knots at the end of yesterday, but I'm sure it's gone down.

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Dense fog here and 46. Warm front fail.

I think you failed.:axe: You put up the yesterday's 12z NAM Tornado Index, which had all of Southern Wisconsin in the 8-10 range (the highest), and not less than an hour or two later, the new NAM came in crappily and dry. Being mildly superstitious, I can't help but wonder. That aside, the warm front should be making its way across our CWA, and when it does, warm air will quickly protrude.

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I think you failed.:axe: You put up the yesterday's 12z NAM Tornado Index, which had all of Southern Wisconsin in the 8-10 range (the highest), and not less than an hour or two later, the new NAM came in crappily and dry. Being mildly superstitious, I can't help but wonder. That aside, the warm front should be making its way across our CWA, and when it does, warm air will quickly protrude.

Secondary low development by MKE. This warm front is fighting a power bigger than it. Give me seasonable temps this time of the year with sunshine and I'm happy. These warm front scenarios are always disappointing for both storms and warmth.

namncsfcwbg.gif

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Secondary low development by MKE. This warm front is fighting a power bigger than it. Give me seasonable temps this time of the year with sunshine and I'm happy. These warm front scenarios are always disappointing for both storms and warmth.

namncsfcwbg.gif

Wouldn't it be a good thing if it got stuck just north of us? SPC indicated the best chance of tornadic development would be near the warm/now stationary front.

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I think you failed.:axe: You put up the yesterday's 12z NAM Tornado Index, which had all of Southern Wisconsin in the 8-10 range (the highest), and not less than an hour or two later, the new NAM came in crappily and dry. Being mildly superstitious, I can't help but wonder. That aside, the warm front should be making its way across our CWA, and when it does, warm air will quickly protrude.

:facepalm:

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as in recent days outbreaks there will be suprises..for example a moderate was needed for the KY/NC/SC yesterday for hail...

watch the dryline over OK/into KS and later MO...

it has that "look" to it on visible

rifgt now it looks like showers above the inversion layer over IA....will have to wait a few more hours to nail down all the meso stuff that the mdoels do porrly on

the warm front may hang up further south for example

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some pretty sig. damage reports coming from manistee mi this morning:

SOME BUILDINGS COMPLETELY DESTROYED, INCLUDING A 120 X 60

FOOT POLE BARN THAT WAS LIFTED OFF ITS FOUNDATION AND

DESTROYED. ROOFS LIFTED AND BLOWN OFF HOUSES AND

BUILDINGS IN DOWNTOWN MANISTEE. ANOTHER COMMERCIAL

BUILDING WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER BLOWN OUT. DAMAGE PATH

IS ABOUT 1 MILE WIDE AND EXTENDS FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN

SHORELINE TO THE EAST SIDE OF MANISTEE LAKE. TIME OF

EVENT ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

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Wouldn't it be a good thing if it got stuck just north of us? SPC indicated the best chance of tornadic development would be near the warm/now stationary front.

I was going to ask the same question. What are the chances the SPC will shift the moderate risk further south at the 1630z update if the warm front is not making the expected progress north?

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