snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 >90% 850/700mb RH fields run from SE MN to SW OH at 120 on the EURO. I'm guessing that's where any snow is at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Fart stronger low pressures. Still looks like a decent event.. 2-4 maybe 5" lolli's from LAF back up to MSP.. Not too good for me and $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Nice...a step in the right direction for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NW trend ftw. GFS and EURO are worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NW trend ftw. GFS and EURO are worlds apart. Last night GFS was north today it dissolves system, Euro south and then maybe a slight trend north today. Model madness.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NW trend ftw. GFS and EURO are worlds apart. I know which one I'd rather have on my side more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Wait until the NAM gets involved soon. Then we'll have 4 clueless models. How fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NW trend ftw. GFS and EURO are worlds apart. Kwik Trip 3/$1.19 for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I know which one I'd rather have on my side more often than not. NOGAPS right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NOGAPS right? Yeah, right. Seriously though, this one probably needs more time. It's a little early to get overly confident in any specific model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Something for everybody on the 12z GFS ensembles with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Something for everybody on the 12z GFS ensembles with this system. Yeah, I saw that.. Of course it's the GFS, just wait 6 hours and see what it has then.. Kind of like those mystic 8 balls.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Something for everybody on the 12z GFS ensembles with this system. lol not a shock there, just goes to show you how even in its own ensembles it can't agree something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Kwik Trip 3/$1.19 for you I prefer 99 Cent Nacho and $4.99 Pizza specials.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Something for everybody on the 12z GFS ensembles with this system. Yep. Now that the models all crap on S. MI, nearly half of the 12z GFS ensemble members give us a nice accumulating snow with the event. As ive been saying for weeks...gonna be a loooooonggg winter with these models, look how emotional many get on a 6-hourly basis. We have 4.5 more months of snowstorms to track lol! One positive, at least wrt the old model biases, day 5 was the infamous day where the models would lose a storm they had been showing for a while, then bring it back in the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NOGAPS right? No, the FIM obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 MODELS MOVE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND SATURDAY. THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER SLOWER AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND WEAKER. HPC CURRENTLY LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE DRY END. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT BASED ON EUROPEAN. Looks like a whole lotta nothing coming my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Looks like a whole lotta nothing coming my way. I'd wait before jumping to that conclusion. Still some (a lot) uncertainty as indicated in the IND AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Am anxiously awaiting the first good snow cover of the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 An early look at my 1/3" from the SREF members, decent but not crazy spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 An early look at my 1/3" from the SREF members, decent but not crazy spread. alot of those would be a nice hit for us, good to see some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 18z GFS with a decent hit for southern/central MN into southwest WI and into BowMe-land...and the Chicago crew gets a little love too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 MKE mentioned a little love from lake MI possible on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 MKE mentioned a little love from lake MI possible on the back side. Looks like it could last into early Sunday am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 There is nothing like being in the exact bulleye on the 18z GFS 3+ days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 MKE mentioned a little love from lake MI possible on the back side. Looking good for your first measurable snowfall. Have to start somewhere I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 18z GFS with a decent hit for southern/central MN into southwest WI and into BowMe-land...and the Chicago crew gets a little love too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Looking good for your first measurable snowfall. Have to start somewhere I guess. I don't want to go too far yet as there's obviously a legit risk that this could slide too far north, but I'm liking our chances for our 2nd measurable snow out of this. We should see these solutions start to stabilize in the next couple days so we can get a better grasp on the best areas and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I don't want to go too far yet as there's obviously a legit risk that this could slide too far north, but I'm liking our chances for our 2nd measurable snow out of this. We should see these solutions start to stabilize in the next couple days so we can get a better grasp on the best areas and such. I'm hedging my bets, in that these systems seem to typically slide north eventually. But of course that's not a lock always...but I'd feel a little more comfortable if I were sitting on the northern fringes right now. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 MKX AS POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REGION WEAKENS LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE ZONAL TO WNW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES INTO PAC NW ON FRI AND ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND WRN GTLAKES OVER WEEKEND. HI RES ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH OVER PAST DAY IT HAS TRENDED TO MORE OPEN WAVE AT 5H. HOWEVER ECMWF STILL CARRIES 85H CIRCULATION ALONG THERMAL RIBBON ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO CENTRAL IL. ALTHOUGH GFS HAS AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF FARTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IMPRESSIVE LAYER FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS PASSING ACROSS SRN WI LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT. LATEST GFS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND FASTER SCENARIO AS WELL. HENCE WL BE EDGING UP POPS SLIGHTLY...AND IF TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS WL LIKELY BE BUMPING UP WORDING FOR FRI NGT INTO SAT. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF -SN TO SRN WI AT SOME POINT FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NGT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM FN VECTORS AND PERIOD OF OMEGA IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND MIXING RATIOS AROUND 2-3 G/KG...POSSIBLE FOR 3 TO 5 INCH STRIP OF SNOWFALL IN HEAVIEST AXIS CLIPPING PARTS OF SRN WI BY SAT AFTN. WOULD EXPC RATIOS TO BE 13 TO 1 OR HIGHER. LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF WEATHER SYSTEM MAY GENERATE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SAT NGT AS DELTA-T INCREASES TO 14 DEGREES. LAKE INDUCED CAPE APPROACHING 200 J FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NORTH BY SUN MRNG. OTHERWISE SEVERAL REINFORCING SURGES OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME AS FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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