LizardMafia Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'm about to go all in on this thing. Maybe should temper the NAM to some extent but even so, our chances for shovelable snow are going up. 12z GFS snowfall.. Not as much as the 12z NAM (of course) but still good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Im not gonna go all in yet, still has to get fully sampled. but dont ya'll forget who started this thread and to send me gifts when you get your good snow haha Of course being measured is prudent. However, can't deny the favorable trends in general. Now we just have to see if they hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'll take one North trend with a side of lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 12z GFS snowfall.. Not as much as the 12z NAM (of course) but still good.. It's a start. Remember the GFS had some runs where it was giving us squat. I think a big question is if/whether this starts to weaken with snow amounts as it gets to Indiana. The NAM says no but other models say yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I hope the storm stays on track and the LAF guys get in on a 3-6 inch clipper, what a nice event that would be. So many times in this time frame these systems have had STL in the Bulls-eye to end up snowing in Chicago. It is almost a given. I hope this time the track stays consistent and a north trend doesn't ensue. I have no idea how much one little system to another matters, but the first little clipper that is progged to go come threw tomorrow has moved all over the place. At least it offers only light snow and flurries so it's nothing to fret over. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 Caplan and I talking now about our last BIG clipper on roids....1/21-1/22/05 http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2005&month=1&day=21&hour=20&minute=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichMedic Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I'll take one North trend with a side of lake enhancement. That'd work for me too. And hi guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You guys down south (Chicago/Indiana) are looking awesome. it looks awful over here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Hey KokomoWX.. Your looking good! I feel good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The NAM really is on steroids. It's spitting out over .9 qpf at LAF of what would be a cement snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 1, 2010 Author Share Posted December 1, 2010 The NAM really is on steroids. It's spitting out over .9 qpf at LAF of what would be a cement snow. Ya it really is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 From Tombo: out to 48 hrs, shortwave looks a little stronger on the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 You guys down south (Chicago/Indiana) are looking awesome. it looks awful over here though. I guess awesome can be used to describe a 1-4" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 From Tombo: out to 48 hrs, shortwave looks a little stronger on the 12z euro Looks fairly similar...this run might try to tick a hair south of 00z but hard to say for sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 12z Euro cut back a bit on QPF but still a solid band of .25-.5 with some specks a little higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 The reason the NAM is going steroidal on QPF further southeast is because it allows the system to tap some modified low-level gulf moisture and it shows considerably better dynamical forcing (due to its more amplified shortwave). Not a tremendous feed, but it's definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I guess awesome can be used to describe a 1-4" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Bummer cut way back in areas especially here to $. No surprise and why I would have loved to lock in last nights run. Clipper suck cheese balls here anyways most of the time so my expectations are low to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yeah, it looks like about .25 QPF here on the euro, right? All it will take though is a slight north trend. Still 60+ hours out so there is still time. 72 HR GEM: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_072.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Yeah, it looks like about .25 QPF here on the euro, right? All it will take though is a slight north trend. Still 60+ hours out so there is still time. 72 HR GEM: http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_072.jpg prob closer to .15 than .25" Last night you had about .30"-.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I haven't really been paying much attention to this clipper, but if it hits here, I would expect it to do better than expected. For some reason, they always do. This is the one kind of storm that we can always count on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Well, After looking through the models and such it definitely looks like somebody in Southern MN could fair pretty well with this....In past storms like this the heaviest banding usually sets up right near the MN River Valley...but one cannot base their forecast off that..These clippers are either hit or miss for so many areas time after time. Kinda OT, but to see that you guys down south haven't even had much, besides a few light snow showers kinda amazes me...We have already had the snowmobiles out a few times this year, and I actually was out ice fishing last weekend on about 5 inches of ice. At KMKT- 12z NAM puts out just under .75 of precip..maybe a bit overdone. GFS puts out about .58 of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 12z GFS has 0.37" of liquid at MSN, which is a good 6" of snow when you consider the very low temperatures that will accompany it. The NAM is basically in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 12z GFS has about 0.3 qpf here. When it first came out, I thought it was less then .25. Obviously not. Temps are around 25-26 also throughout most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 After looking at the 12z runs, my preliminary guess is a band of 3-6" streaking southeast through Indiana including LAF. The 850 mb low is progged to pass somewhere around northern/central Indiana depending on the model and the heaviest snow should occur north of that as is usually the case. We might be riding a fine line here and my guess is that totals could drop off fairly quickly with south/westward extent. I think there's a good chance for a heavier band of 6 to locally 9 or 10" in heavier banded features especially northwest of the area given model qpf consensus around/over .5 there (and factoring in greater than 10:1 ratios) and this could extend through Indiana if the NAM is correct, but that remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 12z shoes between 6 and 8 inches here... I'll be shoveling Saturday morning from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 I haven't really been paying much attention to this clipper, but if it hits here, I would expect it to do better than expected. For some reason, they always do. This is the one kind of storm that we can always count on. Euro only gives us .06" I'm hoping for the slight north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Awesome maps...thanks for sharing. Your maps put mine to shame. If you want, you can post those or any other maps in this thread: http://www.americanw...-snowfall-maps/ Just took a look. I like the more regional aspect to your map and you have many more data points. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Usually with moisture-starved clippers we halve the QPF to make our forecast. However, looking at water vapor and the pacific origins of this system GFS/ECMWF QPF progs may not be too far off. This system has my attention... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 1, 2010 Share Posted December 1, 2010 Madison WI checkin in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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