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12/3-12/6 MW/GL snow event?


Thundersnow12

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Something for everybody on the 12z GFS ensembles with this system.

Yep. Now that the models all crap on S. MI, nearly half of the 12z GFS ensemble members give us a nice accumulating snow with the event. As ive been saying for weeks...gonna be a loooooonggg winter with these models, look how emotional many get on a 6-hourly basis. We have 4.5 more months of snowstorms to track lol!

One positive, at least wrt the old model biases, day 5 was the infamous day where the models would lose a storm they had been showing for a while, then bring it back in the next 24-36 hours.

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MODELS MOVE ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION

AROUND SATURDAY. THE 12Z EUROPEAN IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER SLOWER AND

HAS MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE GFS AND GEM HAVE

TRENDED FASTER AND WEAKER. HPC CURRENTLY LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE

DRY END. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON STRENGTH...SO WILL CONTINUE

LOW CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED LOW

CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT BASED ON EUROPEAN.

Looks like a whole lotta nothing coming my way. :(

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Looking good for your first measurable snowfall. Have to start somewhere I guess. smile.gif

I don't want to go too far yet as there's obviously a legit risk that this could slide too far north, but I'm liking our chances for our 2nd measurable snow out of this. We should see these solutions start to stabilize in the next couple days so we can get a better grasp on the best areas and such.

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I don't want to go too far yet as there's obviously a legit risk that this could slide too far north, but I'm liking our chances for our 2nd measurable snow out of this. We should see these solutions start to stabilize in the next couple days so we can get a better grasp on the best areas and such.

I'm hedging my bets, in that these systems seem to typically slide north eventually. But of course that's not a lock always...but I'd feel a little more comfortable if I were sitting on the northern fringes right now. We'll see.

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MKX

AS POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY REGION WEAKENS LATE IN THE

WEEK...MORE ZONAL TO WNW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHES INTO PAC NW ON FRI AND ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND

WRN GTLAKES OVER WEEKEND.

HI RES ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH

OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH OVER PAST DAY IT HAS TRENDED TO MORE OPEN

WAVE AT 5H. HOWEVER ECMWF STILL CARRIES 85H CIRCULATION ALONG

THERMAL RIBBON ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO CENTRAL IL. ALTHOUGH GFS HAS

AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF FARTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW

IMPRESSIVE LAYER FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS

PASSING ACROSS SRN WI LATER FRI NGT INTO SAT. LATEST GFS MORE IN

LINE WITH ECMWF AND FASTER SCENARIO AS WELL. HENCE WL BE EDGING UP

POPS SLIGHTLY...AND IF TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS WL LIKELY BE

BUMPING UP WORDING FOR FRI NGT INTO SAT.

DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE

SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF -SN TO SRN WI AT SOME POINT FROM FRI NIGHT

INTO SAT NGT. ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM FN

VECTORS AND PERIOD OF OMEGA IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND

MIXING RATIOS AROUND 2-3 G/KG...POSSIBLE FOR 3 TO 5 INCH STRIP OF

SNOWFALL IN HEAVIEST AXIS CLIPPING PARTS OF SRN WI BY SAT AFTN.

WOULD EXPC RATIOS TO BE 13 TO 1 OR HIGHER.

LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF WEATHER SYSTEM MAY GENERATE

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SAT NGT AS DELTA-T INCREASES

TO 14 DEGREES. LAKE INDUCED CAPE APPROACHING 200 J FOR SEVERAL

HOURS BEFORE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NORTH BY SUN MRNG. OTHERWISE

SEVERAL REINFORCING SURGES OF COLDER AIR WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED

COLD CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME

AS FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE.

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