weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 We may be dealing with winter weather right now but this will soon be a distant memory as temperatures are going to be slowly moderating over the course of the next several days. By Monday the next storm system begins working towards our region. A fairly deep digging upper-level trough will be working through the western US and then through the central Plains over the next few days. With this we will see a developing area of low pressure which will intensify as it works through the Plains and into the upper mid-West. With the area of low pressure to our west the return flow out ahead of it will work to lift a warm front northward towards and through our region. Some medium range computer models are indicating the warm front will RAPIDLY lift northward as the entire region gets into the warm sector. The continued rapid intensification of the low pressure coupled with a very strong LLJ should both help with the fast northward acceleration of the warm front. The best of the warmth will be across the region on Tuesday as 925mb temps will be approaching +15C and 850mb temps will be approaching +12C. With excellent mixing and full sunshine this would yield to temps in the low to mid 70's! Given how there will be a cold front to our west and the potential for some cloud cover we may not really see full sunshine so temperatures will be hindered a bit. It does appear though much of the region could see temps shoot well into the 60's. Mid level temperatures are going to be quite cold with 500mb temperatures around -15C! 700mb temperatures are foretasted to be right around +4C. This will yield to a fairly steep lapse rate environment which should yield to some weak surface instability. Wind fields aloft at this time also look rather impressive, especially with the mid level and upper level jets. Model forecasts right now indicate a mid level jet at 500mb of between 90-110 knots potentially placing part of the region in the right entrance region and 50-80 knots at 700mb! The forecast upper level jet is between 110-1130 knots!!! Also potentially placing parts of the region in the right entrance region as well. Now only may the dynamics be very strong and help with lift but the strong cold front coupled with the upper level trough moving through along with the steep lapse rates could all come together to set the stage for a line of thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front. While good instability will be lacking the atmosphere should be weakly unstable. The storms will run on the support of the dynamics and lift. Due to the strong wind fields aloft these thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong to perhaps damaging winds. It's also interesting to note that forecast soundings are hinting at the potential for an inverted-v look...this could be interesting as this could enhance the threat for some strong winds. Given how cold we will be aloft in the mid levels of the atmosphere and due to the potential for some steep lapse rates some small hail can't be ruled out either. The BETTER shot for convection with actual threat for severe weather will exist further off to our west (out across PA and parts of NY) and further to our south (down across the mid-Atlantic). In these locations there stands a better chance at some stronger instability. Still several days out but looks like the ingredients are there right now to produce the potential for some convection. Still a little too early for some good severe wx but thunderstorms with strong wind gusts can be fun too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 We may be dealing with winter weather right now but this will soon be a distant memory as temperatures are going to be slowly moderating over the course of the next several days. By Monday the next storm system begins working towards our region. A fairly deep digging upper-level trough will be working through the western US and then through the central Plains over the next few days. With this we will see a developing area of low pressure which will intensify as it works through the Plains and into the upper mid-West. With the area of low pressure to our west the return flow out ahead of it will work to lift a warm front northward towards and through our region. Some medium range computer models are indicating the warm front will RAPIDLY lift northward as the entire region gets into the warm sector. The continued rapid intensification of the low pressure coupled with a very strong LLJ should both help with the fast northward acceleration of the warm front. The best of the warmth will be across the region on Tuesday as 925mb temps will be approaching +15C and 850mb temps will be approaching +12C. With excellent mixing and full sunshine this would yield to temps in the low to mid 70's! Given how there will be a cold front to our west and the potential for some cloud cover we may not really see full sunshine so temperatures will be hindered a bit. It does appear though much of the region could see temps shoot well into the 60's. Mid level temperatures are going to be quite cold with 500mb temperatures around -15C! 700mb temperatures are foretasted to be right around +4C. This will yield to a fairly steep lapse rate environment which should yield to some weak surface instability. Wind fields aloft at this time also look rather impressive, especially with the mid level and upper level jets. Model forecasts right now indicate a mid level jet at 500mb of between 90-110 knots potentially placing part of the region in the right entrance region and 50-80 knots at 700mb! The forecast upper level jet is between 110-1130 knots!!! Also potentially placing parts of the region in the right entrance region as well. Now only may the dynamics be very strong and help with lift but the strong cold front coupled with the upper level trough moving through along with the steep lapse rates could all come together to set the stage for a line of thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front. While good instability will be lacking the atmosphere should be weakly unstable. The storms will run on the support of the dynamics and lift. Due to the strong wind fields aloft these thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong to perhaps damaging winds. It's also interesting to note that forecast soundings are hinting at the potential for an inverted-v look...this could be interesting as this could enhance the threat for some strong winds. Given how cold we will be aloft in the mid levels of the atmosphere and due to the potential for some steep lapse rates some small hail can't be ruled out either. The BETTER shot for convection with actual threat for severe weather will exist further off to our west (out across PA and parts of NY) and further to our south (down across the mid-Atlantic). In these locations there stands a better chance at some stronger instability. Still several days out but looks like the ingredients are there right now to produce the potential for some convection. Still a little too early for some good severe wx but thunderstorms with strong wind gusts can be fun too! good post. Also look for a pretty nasty outbreak d5-6 across the SE, like the SPC has mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Rofl its literally april 1st in new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 good post. Also look for a pretty nasty outbreak d5-6 across the SE, like the SPC has mentioned There is going to be some sick severe in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 There is going to be some sick severe weenies in me in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'm looking forward to severe season!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'm looking forward to severe season!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Wiz I will be in Western PA Monday/Tuesday I will send pics of awesome shelf clouds to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Rofl its literally april 1st in new england Some of the best events happen in April or May across the interior (PA, NYS/W MA, etc). East of there, pushing your luck obviously. Hopefully we'll see a rogue event to surprise this year. No different than hoping for a hurricane strike, unfortunately. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Wiz I will be in Western PA Monday/Tuesday I will send pics of awesome shelf clouds to you Feel free to take him with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'll try and post a few weenie maps, especially if we can get some nighttime elevated stuff. Have some overlays with K-Index etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 I'm looking forward to severe season!!! Wiz I will be in Western PA Monday/Tuesday I will send pics of awesome shelf clouds to you Nice! Hopefully you see something. I'll try and post a few weenie maps, especially if we can get some nighttime elevated stuff. Have some overlays with K-Index etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 tenatively booking a flight to Tulsa or Little Rock Apr 16th through 20th. Maybe will catch something decent down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Wanna chase later this spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Wanna chase later this spring? Absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Absolutely! I'm serious, I'm getting a new car tomorrow we can take that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 I'm serious, I'm getting a new car tomorrow we can take that haha Nice dude! We'll definitely have to do some chasing. My friend from NH usually comes down for the first two weeks of June and we do some local chasing...we'll have to get together sometime then as well. I just really hope we don't get severe wx threats on days I have baseball That always pisses me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Nice dude! We'll definitely have to do some chasing. My friend from NH usually comes down for the first two weeks of June and we do some local chasing...we'll have to get together sometime then as well. I just really hope we don't get severe wx threats on days I have baseball That always pisses me off. Im talkin' Tornado Alley baby, the real deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Im talkin' Tornado Alley baby, the real deal! Really? Oh man, I am not totally sure if I can get the money for that this year but we DEFINITELY should do this for next spring. We can perhaps find one or two other people interested as well and if everyone split for gas and other costs we could make it work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Well this blows...timing of the cold front could be an issue on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 How is your avatar the size of a portrait?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 How is your avatar the size of a portrait?? Probably purchased the upgrade package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 How is your avatar the size of a portrait?? Go big or go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 I'm serious, I'm getting a new car tomorrow we can take that haha Count me in... no lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 I wouldn't really rank this as a "threat" - per se. There are problems here: 1) Warm frontal position is problematic at SNE's latitude. Particulars in the PP argue that more ageostrophic flow may retard the latitude of the boundary. 2) Warm front tries to get N of the Pike overnight. Nocturnal warm fropas are tough to come by in July, let alone April. 3) System as a whole translates pretty fast, such that by 12z Tuesday CAA is kicking into western zone with fast moving cold fropa. Most of Monday should be socked in with pre-warm frontal sludge. Monday night, again ... wouldn't shock me if warm front hangs up somewhere just S of HFD-PVD. For these timings, this system as a whole doesn't benefit from diabatic therms at all. The best bet here appears to be elevated convection, which is nice as homage to the ensuing season. At least there's that. I am noticing that @850mb there is a solid 30kt flow from the SW. 22kts is a typical index finger velocity found to be sufficient to overcome SNE's topographical idiosyncrasies, but again, the nocturnal nature fights that/offsets that, and we don't spend enough time under that flow aloft. But, it should be sufficient to advect some MLCAPE across the area...(but that's speculative; I haven't checked BUFKIT ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Yeah perhaps some elevated convection possible but it looks like the timing is really going to screw us here, mainly with temperatures more than convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Surprise Wizzy isn't pumped for the euro. It has the coldfront moving through mid aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 3, 2011 Author Share Posted April 3, 2011 Surprise Wizzy isn't pumped for the euro. It has the coldfront moving through mid aftn. Oh nice! I didn't look at the 0z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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