Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 MKE is going with the blend of the models. Here is the AFD from MKE: PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS HIGHER. DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE EAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO AROUND 40 MID DAY WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY COOL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EAST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. HAVE UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CVA WITH MAIN VORT MAX TARGETING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. GFS HAS MADE STEADY PROGRESS NORTH WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...CLOSER TO ECMWF THOUGH STILL A BIT SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS RAIN TO START IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A MIX TO THE NORTH...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTHEAST THIRD BASED ON THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS LOW MOVES INTO NW IL/SW WI. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. BLENDED TRACK OF SURFACE LOW TAKES IT ACROSS NRN IL AND FAR SRN/SE WI...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN 12Z GFS...WITH 12Z CANADIAN THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF SRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AND A RAIN SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHED AROUND 18Z...THEN BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLDER AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND LOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HEADLINE EVENT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRACK OF SFC LOW/MID LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL PLAY A HUGE FACTOR IN THE THERMAL SET UP FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS. NORTHERN 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA STILL HAVING BEST CHANCE OF HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'm sure a met could provide a better answer but look at the trough...it's pretty amplified and trying to go negative tilt. Surface lows tend to get pulled farther north in that situation. Also seems like most models have about a 1028 mb high pressure to the north/nne, not exactly the dominating 1040 and 1050 we've seen earlier this year so its not as effective at suppressing systems as those stronger highs were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 MKE is going with the blend of the models. Here is the AFD from MKE: PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS HIGHER. DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE EAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WHILE WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL WARM TO AROUND 40 MID DAY WITH SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE. TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY COOL AFTER 18Z TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EAST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW. HAVE UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CVA WITH MAIN VORT MAX TARGETING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. GFS HAS MADE STEADY PROGRESS NORTH WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...CLOSER TO ECMWF THOUGH STILL A BIT SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A MODEL BLEND THAT BRINGS RAIN TO START IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A MIX TO THE NORTH...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTHEAST THIRD BASED ON THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH A CHANGE BACK TO ALL RAIN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS LOW MOVES INTO NW IL/SW WI. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. BLENDED TRACK OF SURFACE LOW TAKES IT ACROSS NRN IL AND FAR SRN/SE WI...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN 12Z GFS...WITH 12Z CANADIAN THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF SRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AND A RAIN SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHED AROUND 18Z...THEN BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COLDER AIR SPREADING IN BEHIND LOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HEADLINE EVENT...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO TRACK OF SFC LOW/MID LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL PLAY A HUGE FACTOR IN THE THERMAL SET UP FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS. NORTHERN 1/4 OF FORECAST AREA STILL HAVING BEST CHANCE OF HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. I saw that, and that's definitely what you have to go with atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 Also seems like most models have about a 1028 mb high pressure to the north/nne, not exactly the dominating 1040 and 1050 we've seen earlier this year so its not as effective at suppressing systems as those stronger highs were. The interesting thing about that statement is, if the stronger high idea were to reappear the system would not only have a better chance of shifting SE (correct me if I'm wrong) but, even with a weaker low, would have a stronger gradient due to the stronger high. Thus, even if the system were further south or weaker, it still could have the same snow/wind impacts it would with a further NW track. Let me know if I'm off base with this thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Almost scary agreement with the surface low track on the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 this thing has big potential for a thin but very heavy snow band on the northwest side, I just don't see it trending south with such good agreement from the models with the track of the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Pretty stout comma head/deformation zone on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Pretty stout comma head/deformation zone on the 18z NAM. NAM would end up being absurd for my area, I agree with the DMX office, GFS and NAM amounts seem overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This storm is a straight up Panhandle Hooker. It has been quite a long time since the Plains has seen a legit one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 This storm is a straight up Panhandle Hooker. It has been quite a long time since the Plains has seen a legit one. any new thoughts on track or anything? btw, how did the balloon launch go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Storm is a straight up don't waste your time worrying if you will get snow in SE WI. because you're not.. GFS will soon be in line with Euro and then it's over for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Pretty stout comma head/deformation zone on the 18z NAM. ya it sucks alot of that is rain, but oh well. getting closer to chasing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 18z GFS has the low on the WI/IL border at hr 99. Euro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 18z GFS has the low on the WI/IL border at hr 99. Euro FTW Lets wait a day or two before proclaiming any model as a "winner". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Storm is a straight up don't waste your time worrying if you will get snow in SE WI. because you're not.. GFS will soon be in line with Euro and then it's over for here. You'll get snow...just a question of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Lets wait a day or two before proclaiming any model as a "winner".. I'd agree but its scary how consistent the models have been on the track, yes the system is still out in the pacific but I think north and west of us will be the winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 just what i wanted for my b-day a nice 8-12" snow storm (march 9th) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Loving the damming arctic high in Quebec. Not too many times a track through Lk Michigan means frozen precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Loving the damming arctic high in Quebec. Not too many times a track through Lk Michigan means frozen precip here. Kinna like how SE MI lucked out in the feb 20th event while harry was boned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I'd agree but its scary how consistent the models have been on the track, yes the system is still out in the pacific but I think north and west of us will be the winners. The track is probably close to what will happen but still gotta wait a few days to see the trends on thermal profiles especially for borderline areas like MKE. Another thing to watch for will be what happens when the low occludes, some places might get a changeover to some snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Kinna like how SE MI lucked out in the feb 20th event while harry was boned. Boned me sideways too. Damming high too far south that time. Cold and dry. It's a delicate balance, especially this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 any new thoughts on track or anything? btw, how did the balloon launch go? Well I am still not upper air certified--not close unfortunately. I did get to launch the balloon today with a lot of oversight by the OPL. First sounding I have taken part in and launched: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11030512_OBS/LBF.gif I will say launching a balloon is a lot more involved then one may think--the manuals involved with it are rather expansive and lengthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 You'll get snow...just a question of how much. Yeah not likely... Talking anything of importance.. Hey - if you guys want to wait around and think this thing will become more favorable for us in the south more power to ya. I've seen all I have to to know this isn't going to end well and after feb. 20th I'll be dammed if I'm duped again into thinking its possible to get a small shift south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 off the 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 off the 15z SREF I would assume the SREFS are on the SE side of guidance. The mean has the best snow band into NW or NC Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Looking at 18z GFS bufkit, it's all rain for MKE. About .5 QPF snow for MSN and then .5 ice and .1 rain. For LSE it's .8 or so QPF all snow for the main storm, with .15-.2 qpf for the WAA (all snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 15z SREF HR 87 Mean Low Pressure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Bowme, soon severe season starts. Babes take their clothes off and you can bake at Bradford Beach all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Yeah not likely... Talking anything of importance.. Hey - if you guys want to wait around and think this thing will become more favorable for us in the south more power to ya. I've seen all I have to to know this isn't going to end well and after feb. 20th I'll be dammed if I'm duped again into thinking its possible to get a small shift south. Can we pull it off? Sure. But is that the likely outcome? Probably not. We have a god awful Pacific ( for those farther se ) for starters. In winter we can fight it at times but this time of year? Ha. We need a little help via Canada and that crappy azz Pacific is locking it up. Leaves us with two options. 1. A system that closes off completely that can stay on a more easterly course along or near i70 a bit farther south for here and a little bit north of you. 2. A system coming into Texas alot farther to the south that turns NNE when reaching the MS river or just east of there and or a Gulf low AND more importantly it HAS to be strengthening and thus not another one of these POS garbage lows that are weakening/weak like we have currently. Sorry but these weakening systems are not it. It is amazing how many of these we see too every winter. far too many shoot their load too quick. One of the things i do miss about living by the coast as the ocean kinda helps avoid that crap. Just have to fight the rn/sn line more often but it atleast usually pays off with a nice biggie every so many years unlike this place which can go decades without a decent payoff. lol Basically we need alot to happen. Like you i am not even thinking about hoping for something that has a very slim chance of happening. This is not our winter and i don't see that changing now. I'll still watch it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Can we pull it off? Sure. But is that the likely outcome? Probably not. We have a god awful Pacific ( for those farther se ) for starters. In winter we can fight it at times but this time of year? Ha. We need a little help via Canada and that crappy azz Pacific is locking it up. Leaves us with two options. 1. A system that closes off completely that can stay on a more easterly course along or near i70 a bit farther south for here and a little bit north of you. 2. A system coming into Texas alot farther to the south that turns NNE when reaching the MS river or just east of there and or a Gulf low AND more importantly it HAS to be strengthening and thus not another one of these POS garbage lows that are weakening/weak like we have currently. Sorry but these weakening systems are not it. It is amazing how many of these we see too every winter. far too many shoot their load too quick. One of the things i do miss about living by the coast as the ocean kinda helps avoid that crap. Just have to fight the rn/sn line more often but it atleast usually pays off with a nice biggie every so many years unlike this place which can go decades without a decent payoff. lol Basically we need alot to happen. Like you i am not even thinking about hoping for something that has a very slim chance of happening. This is not our winter and i don't see that changing now. I'll still watch it though. We'll get one before the year ends. One at hour 200 looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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