daddylonglegs Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 This could plop us into the top 10 for snowiest winters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Don't lock it in yet frank. Although there is really no way a south shift is gonna take us out of the big snow now. Only thing now would be a crapfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Looks like as the low moves NE, the less snow and more rain. Still hoping for a last minute south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 sioux falls afd mentions it could go even farther nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 GFS does some kooky things with the ul trough after the first storm occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yup, I knew the EURO was going to be right, so meh. Get rid of this snow and get ready for some baseball. It could be but we're still 4 days out. This early kudos kind of stuff is what annoys some people here. As said, I think the only shot here...and it's remote...would be with any second low that develops but the most likely scenario right now seems to be that any second low passes too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 It could be but we're still 4 days out. This early kudos kind of stuff is what annoys some people here. As said, I think the only shot here...and it's remote...would be with any second low that develops but the most likely scenario right now seems to be that any second low passes too far east. Given how extremely negative tilt that trough went, I was surprised the GFS didn't develop that secondary sfc low further west. Might not have mattered though wrt to snow though as it really scours out the arctic air once the trough becomes detached from the main ul steering winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Given how extremely negative tilt that trough went, I was surprised the GFS didn't develop that secondary sfc low further west. Might not have mattered though wrt to snow though as it really scours out the arctic air once the trough becomes detached from the main ul steering winds. Yeah...it will be interesting to see if tonight's GGEM is anything like the 12z run. If we're gonna see any model struggles with this event it will probably be with that second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 ggem coming n at 84...extreme sw ia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 ggem at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 ggem at 96 Fairly compact system (deformation snows). Sure there will be some decent storm but nothing too widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 What did the Ukmet show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Comparing the GFS and GGEM at 108 hours, the trough is sharper/more amplified on the GGEM. Just guessing but I'd say it will probably be further west with any secondary development but not sure how far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 What did the Ukmet show? ukie out to 72hrs...L in se KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Comparing the GFS and GGEM at 108 hours, the trough is sharper/more amplified on the GGEM. Just guessing but I'd say it will probably be further west with any secondary development but not sure how far. Looks a touch west of the GFS with the sfc low. Don't know how far back the precip extends beyond 120 as only the b/w maps are out, but looking at the thickness configuration, probably the same lack of cold air problems regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 ukie out to 72hrs...L in se KS Sounds SE of the other models; will probably be my last hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Sounds SE of the other models; will probably be my last hope. it is..takes the chicago track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just coming into picture for this storm on the around the 8th. Seeing some early snowfall forecast for the 8th with Omaha, Lincoln, Hayes, and Grand Island with around 8-9" or snowfall possible. Snowfall rates showing around 1.1 to 1.2" per hour for a 4-5 hour block on the 8th for these areas. Attached some snowfall projections for that area. http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 EURO: HR 84: 1006 LOW near STL. HR 90: 1002 LOW N/C. IL HR 96: 998 LOW S. tip of LM Interesting how it got that way. Thoughts hooiser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Just coming into picture for this storm on the around the 8th. Seeing some early snowfall forecast for the 8th with Omaha, Lincoln, Hayes, and Grand Island with around 8-9" or snowfall possible. Snowfall rates showing around 1.1 to 1.2" per hour for a 4-5 hour block on the 8th for these areas. Attached some snowfall projections for that area. http://smartwxmodel.net/snow.pdf looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 ggem at 96 This storm reminds me of the storm we had a couple of weeks ago in Mi, when S/E Michigan got around 10", while the western side of the state got freezing rain and rain. The whole setup, with the low far to the west and the waa not making it that far north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 EURO: HR 84: 1006 LOW near STL. HR 90: 1002 LOW N/C. IL HR 96: 998 LOW S. tip of LM Interesting how it got that way. Thoughts hooiser? Well, what do you think? Still in the ballgame with the Ukie holding steady and the Euro's shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 You are still mostly rain on the EURO. LOW goes pretty much from St. Louis to Chicago to N. Michigan. Draws up a lot of warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 You are still mostly rain on the EURO. LOW goes pretty much from St. Louis to Chicago to N. Michigan. Draws up a lot of warm air. I had a feeling you might say that. With projected highs in the low 40s it seems some colder air will have to really fill in to have a chance at decent snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 You are still mostly rain on the EURO. LOW goes pretty much from St. Louis to Chicago to N. Michigan. Draws up a lot of warm air. does anyone get decent snow from the euro? looks warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I don't know about the 2M temps, but the only place that stays cold enough for snow (850 temps) would be North-Central WI, towards GB and that area. They look to get about .75-1 inch qpf of snow. And Neb. area looks to be snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 does anyone get decent snow from the euro? looks warm to me. its close for me and folks in omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 I don't know about the 2M temps, but the only place that stays cold enough for snow (850 temps) would be North-Central WI, towards GB and that area. They look to get about .75-1 inch qpf of snow. crazy, 12z the ggem was furthest south and euro furthest north now it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yup. GFS/GEM all go farther north towards EURO then the EURO says it wants to go towards the UKIE, and takes a track near Chicago. How are temps on the UKIE? Cold enough for snow for most areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 6, 2011 Share Posted March 6, 2011 Yup. GFS/GEM all go farther north towards EURO then the EURO says it wants to go towards the UKIE, and takes a track near Chicago. How are temps on the UKIE? Cold enough for snow for most areas? i only got temps out to 72 on the ukie...little colder than what the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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