Poimen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, per the NAM we are 20 miles from partly cloudy skies but we are 50 miles from 2-3" snowfall. Yeah, it could go either way really. I am just trying to stay somewhat conservative in my approach right now- but hoping for more. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Yeah, it could go either way really. I am just trying to stay somewhat conservative in my approach right now- but hoping for more. We'll see. Plus this is the only model showing any precip, GFS/EURO/GEM/UKIE were all dry, I thought. Correction: Ukie and GEM show a .1" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Right off the bat 12z GFS is stronger with our s/w out in the west then the 6z run, it also looks a littler further south west...of course it's only out to 6 so total crap shoot trying to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 out to 12 and IMO pretty big change at 500mb. Looks stronger and further south west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 out to 12 and IMO pretty big change at 500mb. Looks stronger and further south west. It is further SW a bit and the shortwave in MN is further to the north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It is further SW a bit and the shortwave in MN is further to the north as well. Looks like it's still going weak pretty fast out to 21...but this should be an improvement over the past couple of runs I would have to guess. Baby steps....these small changes were the same way that ULL destroyed the OV and NE and totally missed us. Maybe we get a reversal of fortunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @27 on the surface def. improvement with moisture...looks a lot more like the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 At hr 24 compared to 0z GFS the 12z GFS is a tad further SW with our shortwave. Also the 552 isobars ran straight thru TN on the 0z run is now up to the TN/KY line. So if you have the trough to the west further south while the the isobars (like the 552 in TN) edging further north it means a better opportunity to tap more moisture. We will see if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Looks like it's still going weak pretty fast out to 21...but this should be an improvement over the past couple of runs I would have to guess. Baby steps....these small changes were the same way that ULL destroyed the OV and NE and totally missed us. Maybe we get a reversal of fortunes. IIRC the Christmas storm kept getting a little stronger a little longer through the day-before runs as well. sort of like the models were saying "Well, it isn't dead yet...let's keep it around for one more run." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Via James Spann... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Our s/w appears to finally getting too weak @33 but it's a trend in the right direction staying stronger longer. This will probably look a lot like the 12z NAM as far as qpf goes if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 IIRC the Christmas storm kept getting a little stronger a little longer through the day-before runs as well. sort of like the models were saying "Well, it isn't dead yet...let's keep it around for one more run." And FFC kept getting weaker and weaker with it. I like the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 At hr 39 GFS has QPF in NW GA and almost all of AL. Granted it isn't much but a whole lot more than the previous 3 runs....combined. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 At least this run has light qpf going into WNC and GA baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 @42 the 500mb maps look night and day compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 At least this run has light qpf going into WNC and GA baby steps. It's more than it's had for 2 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Very good trend on the gfs.... long way to go but much better than the past several days. Still a minor event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Via James Spann... I'll take 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'll take 2 inches. So many jokes. All I want is an inch to put me into double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So many jokes. All I want is an inch to put me into double digits. You may have just told the best one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So many jokes. All I want is an inch to put me into double digits. Good thing I didn't say, "I need 6 inches" For real though, I like the trends some of our best snows are the ones that sneak up and over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's the deal. Everyone wrote the GFS off (including the HPC) because it was... well, very wrong. Now, it's starting to come around also. Time and trends are in our favor I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Good thing I didn't say, "I need 6 inches" For real though, I like the trends some of our best snows are the ones that sneak up and over perform. I need 11" to put me at 20" for the season. 12z GFS is still ultimately a fail in many respects, but it's a vast improvement over its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Encouraging trends from the GFS and NAM this morning. Hopefully in future runs we can see the changes translate down to the surface a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Plus this is the only model showing any precip, GFS/EURO/GEM/UKIE were all dry, I thought. Correction: Ukie and GEM show a .1" too. Even here I have my reservations, as these events which are indicated to be light in nature have high bust potential, usually in the negative sense. Very thin ground when output is for less than 0.25", which can sometimes indicate coverage is more sporadic in the grid, where one place ends up with maybe a couple inches and the next town over is left dry. Would much rather be firmly intrenched in the in at-least 0.25" ballpark, and with the Euro coming in with 0.06", not good. We are in the range where small changes can change things quick, and the 12z GFS is a step in the right direction. If the weaker trends continued, this would have almost certainly vanished into not much, if anything. Hopefully that has leveled off and reserved, and we start seeing it come back in wetter. The GFS ens mean has been the wettest output here as of late, with the 0.5" shade almost clipping SE Pitt County. Looking at the individual members, overwhelming majority are better than the OP for ENC, with several showing a somewhat widespread 0.5" event. Needless to say, less than avg confidence going foreword, and will basically come down to a nowcast with MHX pinning hopes on a WWA to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I was wondering if those higher QPFs toward the coast came with boundary issues as well? I'd love for y'all to rack up one more nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Here's the deal. Everyone wrote the GFS off (including the HPC) because it was... well, very wrong. Now, it's starting to come around also. Time and trends are in our favor I believe. I know for a time it was washing out both storms quite similarly, and yet that piddling little line of showers yesterday gave me .3. If that had been snow, I'd have seen some flakes It is 36.5 here so I'm not over impressed with the cold, but that isn't too bad considering it is near noon. I think there is snow in the future. And now I'm interested in the 15th. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So here is my forecast. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/light-snow-likely-across-the-southeast-and-the-triangle-wednesday-thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Even here I have my reservations, as these events which are indicated to be light in nature have high bust potential, usually in the negative sense. Very thin ground when output is for less than 0.25", which can sometimes indicate coverage is more sporadic in the grid, where one place ends up with maybe a couple inches and the next town over is left dry. Would much rather be firmly intrenched in the in at-least 0.25" ballpark, and with the Euro coming in with 0.06", not good. We are in the range where small changes can change things quick, and the 12z GFS is a step in the right direction. If the weaker trends continued, this would have almost certainly vanished into not much, if anything. Hopefully that has leveled off and reserved, and we start seeing it come back in wetter. The GFS ens mean has been the wettest output here as of late, with the 0.5" shade almost clipping SE Pitt County. Looking at the individual members, overwhelming majority are better than the OP for ENC, with several showing a somewhat widespread 0.5" event. Needless to say, less than avg confidence going foreword, and will basically come down to a nowcast with MHX pinning hopes on a WWA to verify. excellent points all around. I really think downeast NC is going to end up with the prize (whatever that may be relative to the rest of us). You have to like the trend in the modeling to rapidly develop the moisture and lift along the coastal plain late tomorrow night as the best dynamics shift to the east. The GFS was relatively close to the NAM in that regard. Right now I'm wishing I was back in my old stomping grounds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 So here is my forecast. http://www.examiner....nesday-thursday A very balanced and reasonable forecast, Allan. Even though I'm not happy with it, it makes sense. I just hope you have to change your forecast later this afternoon or early tomorrow morning to include more areas in the blue or pink areas of snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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