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Feb 5-6 2010 - Snowmageddon


Ian
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

932 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS

EVENING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST

TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BUILD BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO INCLUDE HARFORD

AND BALTIMORE COUNTIES. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS

THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO

TIGHTEN. STARTING TO NOTICE 30 TO 35 KT COME ACROSS THE CENTRAL

CHESAPEAKE BAY.

ALSO UPDATED GRIDS A BIT TO TOUCH UP THE SNOW TOTALS...MAINLY FOR

THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS. HAVE RECEIVED

SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS OF A FOOT OR MORE IN WESTERN MD

AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE. HAVE UPPED THESE TOTALS A

BIT...BETWEEN 30 AND 35 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME SLEET CONTINUES

TO MIX IN WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS ACROSS TO

LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HAVE TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS DOWN VERY SMALL

AMOUNTS. DO BELIEVE THEY WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

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Isn't it a bit early for this thread? :whistle:

If not then I have quite a bit of stuff to post.

Technically but not really. I saved those two things on the 1st and 2nd. ;) It needs more than 2 days of remembrance anyway.

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Snow reports.

...WASHINGTON DC...

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY 27.5

ANACOSTIA 1 S 21.0

WASHINGTON 1 NNE 20.0

WASHINGTON 18.2

...MARYLAND...

ELKRIDGE 2 W 38.3

FROSTBURG 36.0

FRIENDSVILLE 35.5

CROFTON 2 NNE 34.0

COLUMBIA 2 N 33.8

LAUREL 3 E 32.9

CLARKSBURG 2 NE 32.0

ECKHART MINES 32.0

HAMPTON 1 W 31.0

HANCOCK 3 ENE 30.5

MONTGOMERY VILLAGE 30.0

GERMANTOWN 2 ESE 29.5

OELLA 1 E 29.5

FREDERICK 1 ESE 29.0

DAMASCUS 2 WSW 28.0

LONACONING 28.0

PIMLICO 28.0

GWYNN OAK 1 S 26.0

COLLEGE PARK 1 NNE 25.0

BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AIRPORT 24.8

WESTERNPORT 24.0

ROCKVILLE 1 SSW 23.5

ROYAL OAK 23.5

ANNAPOLIS 1 NW 21.5

ELKTON 21.0

WWB CAMP SPRINGS 19.5

...VIRGINIA...

HOWELLSVILLE 1 ENE 37.0

LEESBURG 34.5

BLUEMONT 3 SSW 34.0

DULLES INTERNATIONAL 32.4

ARMEL 3 WSW 31.5

WILDE ACRES 1 N 31.0

BERRYVILLE 30.5

BALLSTON 1 SW 28.0

CHANTILLY 2 NE 28.0

GAINESVILL 27.0

STEPHENS CITY 3 NW 26.0

WHITACRE 1 ESE 25.0

MARSHALL 24.0

WINCHESTER 2 S 24.0

ALEXANDRIA 1 SSW 23.2

OPAL 23.0

ASHBURN 1 NE 22.1

LOCUST GROVE 2 WSW 20.0

REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT 17.8

FREDERICKSBURG 14.0

...WEST VIRGINIA...

LEHEW 2 WNW 34.0

BAYARD 33.0

ROMNEY 3 E 33.0

SMITH CROSSBOADS 1 W 33.0

MIDDLEWAY 31.0

VANVILLE 1 SSW 30.0

KEYSER 2 SW 29.2

RIDGELEY 1 WSW 28.3

MARTINSBURG 2 E 27.9

BUNKER HILL 1 WNW 25.0

MOUNT STORM 18.0

HIGH VIEW 17.0

MCCOOLE 3 ESE 16.5

ROWLESBURG 14.0

WHITE SULPHUR 14.0

HEADSVILLE 13.5

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

955 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-WVZ052-053-060415-WASHINGTON

MD-CARROLL MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-FREDERICK MD-HOWARD

MD-MONTGOMERY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-PRINCE GEORGES MD-LOUDOUN

VA-JEFFERSON WV-BERKELEY WV-HARFORD MD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-949 PM

EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TO AFFECT WASHINGTON...CARROLL...NORTHERN

BALTIMORE...FREDERICK...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...ANNE ARUNDEL...PRINCE

GEORGES...LOUDOUN...JEFFERSON...BERKELEY...HARFORD AND SOUTHERN

BALTIMORE COUNTIES...

AT 949 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A HEAVY

SNOW BAND ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF MARTINSBURG

TO MARTIN STATE AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW

INCLUDE JACKSONVILLE...ROCKY RIDGE...LOCH RAVEN...THURMONT...

PATAPSCO...GLEN ARM...CARROLLTON...WESTMINSTER...UPPERCO AND BEL AIR.

HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER

HOUR...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW A QUARTER MILE.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1029 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER

STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SFC LOW MOVG NEWD FROM HAMPTON ROADS AREA THIS MRNG WHILE ITS

ASSOCIATED UPR LOW SET TO MOVE ACRS RGN TDA. SNOW BANDS OF MDT

INTENSITY ARE DVLPG IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NERN BALTIMORE

SUBURBS TO NEAR KIAD...WHILE A SECOND BAND IS APPARENT FROM NEAR

KBWI TO NEAR KCJR.

MDT SNOW WILL CONT THRU EARLY AFTN WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES

XPCD UNDER THE BANDS. IN WRN SECTIONS... SNOW WILL BE GENLY

LIGHTER...WITH 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS XPCD. HAVE AMENDED STORM

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO REFLECT MRNG OBS AND XPCD PCPN FCST. THESE

TOTALS WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY INCRG SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS COLD

AIR IS DRAWN SWD INTO FCST AREA. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HV TWEAKED THE SNOW TOTALS BACK FURTHER. I'D HEARD ON TV LAST EVE

TALK OF HITTING THE NUMBERS OF THE FAMED DC KNICKERBOCKER STORM -

BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. ON THE OTHER HAND BOTH DC AND

BALT BROKE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FRI...BOTH RECORDS OVER 110 YRS

OLD...SO THIS CAN STILL BE CALLED A RECORD BRKG STORM.

ON RDR THERE'S A VERY DEFINITIVE BACK EDGE SHOWING UP ACROSS

CENTRAL VA. HOWEVER FOR SNOW LOVERS I DON'T THINK THIS MEANS AN

END TO THE SNOW. 850 AND 500 MB ANLYS BOTH SHOW DEEPENING UPR LOW

OVR MID MS VALLEY WL BE TRACKING ACROSS SRN VA TDA. HVIER PCPN MAY

MOVE OUT TO SEA BY MID MRNG HOWEVER APRCHG UPR LOW WL LV MUCH OF

THE CWA IN LGT/MDT SNOWFALL INTO AT LEAST MID AFTN. XPCT PCPN TO

CHG BACK OVER TO SNOW IN ST. MARY'S TOO.

I'M GOING TO LV THE BLZRD WRNG INTACT GIVEN STRONG WINDS TDA THAT

WL CREATE BLSN WHICH COULD CONT TO DIMINISH VSBY TO 1/4 MILE DURG

THE DAY.

HIGHS TDA FM M20S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO L30S E OF I-95.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1002 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2010

DCZ001-MDZ007-011-013-014-062315-

/O.CON.KLWX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100207T0300Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HARFORD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-

ANNE ARUNDEL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS

1002 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS

EVENING...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS

EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODERATE SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES TODAY WITH TOTAL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES.

* TIMING...MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD

THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BECOME

LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF

MILE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 30 DEGREES THIS

MORNING AND WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THROUGH

THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...VISIBILITIES

WILL BE AT OR BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN MODERATE SNOW...

WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY.

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i wonder how many people found accuwx last yr and thought they were amazing i95 snowstorm forecasters

A few days before Feb 5th, one of my teachers told us that there could be a 2nd storm the week after, .and that she found out by watching a "very funny weather guy on accuweather." Five minutes later Henry Margusity's long range outlook video was on the projector. yikes.png

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Winter storm watch in effect from Friday morning through saturday evening,

The NWS in sterling Virginia has issued a winter storm watch, which is in effect from Friday morning through Saturday evening.

Precipitation type, snow.

Accumulations, this storm is likely to produce 12 or more inches of snow in the watch area, with a good chance for localized amounts over 20 inches.

Timing, snow is expected to begin late morning Friday, continuing through Saturday evening.

Temperatures, highs in the lower to mid 30s Friday. Friday night and Saturday, temperatures will be 25 to 30 degrees.

Winds, east 5 to 10 mph Friday and Friday night, becoming north 10 to 20 mph Saturday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions,

This storm has the potential to be similar to the December 19th storm. Plan for substantial disruptions to travel Friday afternoon through the weekend.

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I've got many of the LWX forecasts and forecast discussions throughout the event, HPC snowfall probability charts, NAM and GFS forecasts at 500, 700, 850, and surface from Friday, 5 February (12Z cycle), and final snowfall reports after the storm...all saved. And, of course a ton of photos! I'll look through them and see if I can post a couple later on sometime. The only unfortunate thing (photograpy-wise!) is that a lot of the snow fell at night, and my camera isn't the greatest for nighttime photography, so most of the pictures are from just before sunset and from the following day. But I did get a few late in the evening, at least.

The whole storm was amazing, as was the anticipation and getting ready for it. It was well forecast well in advance, with high certainty about what was going to happen. I remember leaving work early, just as the first light snow started to fall...headed out to Blockbuster (Lackluster!) video to pick up a couple of movies for the weekend, grabbed a small personal Pizza Hut pizza for lunch, and got some fire wood in case the power went out (fortunately it didn't!). Oh, and also picked up a 6-pack of BECK'S beer, on purpose, in honor of the impending storm (thinking of the mythical "BECS" type snowstorm!).:thumbsup:

Snow initially fell lightly for a couple or so hours but didn't really accumulate at the start. But it did start in earnest and began accumulating around 3PM on Friday the 5th. We had some snow left over from the Groundhog's Day event a couple of days prior (which got lost in the shuffle before the big event). I ended up with 23.5" where I'm at in Silver Spring, MD. Took many Jebwalks through the evening and the following day. Heard some thunder-snow during the evening/night, definitely saw flashes of lightning in the sky. And, heard many transformers blowing too. When I got up the next morning, it was a spectacular scene...and we still had a decent amount of the storm left to go!

The only thing that was a little odd was that early Saturday (6th), Sterling seemed to back off some on the snow amounts I recall, and mentioned as much in their forecast discussion at the time...only to up them again by mid-morning. That, and somehow, despite the entire area getting a general 20-30", DCA came in with "only" 17.8, and I remember some discussion about that report on the Eastern WX board. I seem to recall seeing at least a couple of reports within the District itself that were well over 20". Regardless, a great storm all-around!

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Wish I was on this board last year when all this went down, so I can't wait to see some of these maps you guys put up. What a great week of weather with this storm and the next one the following mid-week. I have a couple pics a video from the mid-week storm from my 9th floor apt and the snow blowing heavy and vertical which I'll post when that thread gets started. I went out 11 straight nights to the bars during these storms from being off from work/teleworking and everynight the bars were packed and everyone was in such a good mood.

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Wish I was on this board last year when all this went down, so I can't wait to see some of these maps you guys put up. What a great week of weather with this storm and the next one the following mid-week. I have a couple pics a video from the mid-week storm from my 9th floor apt and the snow blowing heavy and vertical which I'll post when that thread gets started. I went out 11 straight nights to the bars during these storms from being off from work/teleworking and everynight the bars were packed and everyone was in such a good mood.

The whole 12-day period from 30 January through 10 February was incredible in terms of winter weather, and something I've never experienced before. And this is coming from someone who grew up in northeast OH, where lots of snow and cold winters are common.

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By 138 hours all but one GEFS member was forecasting a major storm.

post-70-0-23519800-1296741494.gif

By 102 hours every member had a major snowstorm

post-70-0-67010200-1296741566.gif

90% of the GEFS ensemble members started showing double digit snows.

post-70-0-09640600-1296741710.png

BY 120 hrs the eruo had brought a 500 low just to our south and made it a big storm.

post-70-0-03963200-1296741787.gif

post-70-0-65632500-1296741906.png

By 72 hr the nam looked great and kept getting wetter each run. I have some of those maps but there are too many to show. I wish I had my thread from eastern on it as the day before it started as I changed the headline to read widespread 20 inch amounts likely. I sounded like JB. I got downright giddy.

I also remember that the D+8 superensembles kept spitting out 5 6 inch or greater storms most being KU storms and at 48 hrs the CIPS analogs picked 1983 as its top one.

It was one of the best forecast storms I can ever remember. Maybe the best.

If you are real geeky. Her's a location where NAm forecasts are archived. You can look at its forecasts for the event. Basically pretty darn good.

http://charlie.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/namModelArchive.cgi

you can also get the gfs

http://charlie.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/gfsModelArchive.cgi

]

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34 inches in Crofton which was the closest snowfall report to my location in Odenton, truly epic and amazing.

My funny story to share is my husband and I going to the grocery store Thursday night. We didn't need the basics (we had gone earlier in the week before the news got serious about the threat) but we did want junk food and booze for the weekend. So here we are with our little cart filling up on cookies, chips/dip, fatty breakfast sandwhiches, ice cream, frozen pizza and appitizer meals while everyone else is clearing out the store of bread, milk, TP, eggs, fruits/veggies and meat. We are standing in line, our cart just a little over half full looking around at people with overflowing carts or even multiple carts just FILLED with endless amounts of the basics, like the world was coming to an end. We were given dirty looks, people were even making comments under their breath about how we were not going to survive the weekend on just junk food. It was incredible.

The woman who rang us up at the register smiled and thanked us for not going crazy and giving her a small break from the endless amounts of purchases she had been ringing up for hours. We smiled and laughed as we walked out with our 60$ purchase of junk food while everyone else fought over the last gallon of milk. Cracks me up to this day how insane people got due to the storm. Only to see people back out again on Tuesday buying MORE food for Wednesdays storm. :lol:

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34 inches in Crofton which was the closest snowfall report to my location in Odenton, truly epic and amazing.

My funny story to share is my husband and I going to the grocery store Thursday night. We didn't need the basics (we had gone earlier in the week before the news got serious about the threat) but we did want junk food and booze for the weekend. So here we are with our little cart filling up on cookies, chips/dip, fatty breakfast sandwhiches, ice cream, frozen pizza and appitizer meals while everyone else is clearing out the store of bread, milk, TP, eggs, fruits/veggies and meat. We are standing in line, our cart just a little over half full looking around at people with overflowing carts or even multiple carts just FILLED with endless amounts of the basics, like the world was coming to an end. We were given dirty looks, people were even making comments under their breath about how we were not going to survive the weekend on just junk food. It was incredible.

The woman who rang us up at the register smiled and thanked us for not going crazy and giving her a small break from the endless amounts of purchases she had been ringing up for hours. We smiled and laughed as we walked out with our 60$ purchase of junk food while everyone else fought over the last gallon of milk. Cracks me up to this day how insane people got due to the storm. Only to see people back out again on Tuesday buying MORE food for Wednesdays storm. :lol:

:drunk: Ha, good story! I wish I saved the pictures I took on my phone of the Wegmans in Fairfax a few days before the storm. The bread aisles were completely cleared out.

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:drunk: Ha, good story! I wish I saved the pictures I took on my phone of the Wegmans in Fairfax a few days before the storm. The bread aisles were completely cleared out.

Toilet paper and milk, FTW!!:lol:

I'd like to see what kind of a spike in sales all the local supermarkets had during the week of those two storms!

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