dryslot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think Charlie based his forcast total from the latest HPC map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The GFS has been rock steady with this IMO. That model has been very, very consistent and the 18z continues that. I feel very comfortable with a forecast for Stowe of .75-1.00" QPF and 10-14" of snow. Middlebury's going to get crushed, I could see going 14-18" for that part of the Champlain Valley, looks like over an inch of liquid with great ratios. You're probably a little bit too far north to see the highest amounts, as this is more of a CNE storm. Definitely could see some lollipops of 20+ from the Capital District through NW Mass and into elevated areas of S NH and S VT. It would be pretty incredible if Middlebury got over a foot from this storm, that would make two events around the 12" mark for the year after two 20" events last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A little update from BTV.... Check out the Killington area....... 21.8" Goin' skiing this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 He must be expecting ratios in the 12-15:1 range, The most qpf any models is putting out was the NAM, I think 10-15" is reasonable here with some higher amounts and that includes what falls tomorow.. I agree with you. I'm standing here reading all these 18-24 forecasts (Noyes) and wondering WTH? I think qpf is a bit over 1" so with decent ratios I'm guessing around 15" for storm total - my range is 11-17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I agree with you. I'm standing here reading all these 18-24 forecasts (Noyes) and wondering WTH? I think qpf is a bit over 1" so with decent ratios I'm guessing around 15" for storm total - my range is 11-17. Yeah, I don't know, I just don't see the qpf needed to warrant those numbers even at 15:1 if we could maintain that based on the Nam, 1.00" is 15", Right now i just don't see it here, This is my 1st call 10-15" from about Waterville to Gray, Unless we trend north with the precip on the models tonight, I think we end up in there somewhere, Probably on the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, I don't know, I just don't see the qpf needed to warrant those numbers even at 15:1 if we could maintain that based on the Nam, 1.00" is 15", Right now i just don't see it here, This is my 1st call 10-15" from about Waterville to Gray, Unless we trend north with the precip on the models tonight, I think we end up in there somewhere, Probably on the high end. Cupo says 2-4 tomorrow, 10-14 Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Up now--cold & dark. 2F after dipping below zero again last night. My recording thermometer shows a low of -7F so it dropped a degree yesterday morning after obs time. Looking at the radar, round one looks to be knocking on the door. Round 2 tomorrow and heads-up apparently for Saturday night into Sunday too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Cupo says 2-4 tomorrow, 10-14 Wednesday. I have 1-3" and 10-15" for here, 6-12" Waterville to Milinocket, 4-8" north of there and 3-6" at the crown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I really liked seeing the 00z and 06z models bump QPF northward at the last minute... definitely feeling pretty good here for 10-14" on the mountain with between .75-1.00" QPF. Per usual, the Green Mountain spine will likely see an additional 1/4" of QPF more than area towns due to orographic processes. I'm thinking 8-12" down in the towns and villages of northern VT (north of I89) with around .75" of QPF, and 10-14" mtns up here. I really don't like forecasting much over 12:1 ratios in WAA events. If ratios are better and closer to 15:1 or 16:1, these amounts may be an inch or two on the low side. I'm pretty confident 12-18" total for a good chunk of Vermont from I-89/Winooski Valley southward... with areas up to 24" in the higher elevations of the Greens south of Killington. The Woodford, VT spotter (2,100ft) is my jackpot location with 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I really liked seeing the 00z and 06z models bump QPF northward at the last minute... definitely feeling pretty good here for 10-14" on the mountain with between .75-1.00" QPF. I'm thinking 8-12" down in the towns and villages of northern VT (north of I89) with around .75" of QPF. I really don't like forecasting much over 12:1 ratios in WAA events. If ratios are better and closer to 15:1 or 16:1, these amounts may be a little on the low side. I'd say pretty confident 12-18" total for a good chunk of Vermont from I-89/Winooski Valley southward... with areas up to 24" in the higher elevations of the Greens south of Killington. The Woodford, VT spotter (2,100ft) is my jackpot location with 24". Should be a great event watching unfold on radar today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Latest snowfall map from CAR. Looks about right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Up now--cold & dark. 2F after dipping below zero again last night. My recording thermometer shows a low of -7F so it dropped a degree yesterday morning after obs time. Looking at the radar, round one looks to be knocking on the door. Round 2 tomorrow and heads-up apparently for Saturday night into Sunday too! Nothing new other than really hungry deer in the yard. I was surprised how cold it was this morning, usually when you can see city glow from Montreal it means the cloud cover would warm us up, -8 at 5:30 walking the dog, love the eery calm before the storm - gonna be fun. If Sat/Sun goes down it would be a pretty amazing 5 weeks of winter weather, best in the past couple years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have 1-3" and 10-15" for here, 6-12" Waterville to Milinocket, 4-8" north of there and 3-6" at the crown I think 3-5 might be possible here. Radar looks pretty decent. Latest snowfall map from CAR. Looks about right to me. Very nice, red. Maybe it'll even over-achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 gassin' up the snowblower tonite. figure one pass of the driveway tonite. at least two tomorrow. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think 3-5 might be possible here. Radar looks pretty decent. Very nice, red. Maybe it'll even over-achieve. Its possible, GYX came back to there senses on there snowfall map, I just could not see how they were getting those totals from last night, We will see how it goes on the 12 runs today for storm 2 and adjust from there if need be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Noticed that light snow has started to fall here in Lebanon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its possible, GYX came back to there senses on there snowfall map, I just could not see how they were getting those totals from last night, We will see how it goes on the 12 runs today for storm 2 and adjust from there if need be Actually I thought the map last night was ok ... had me at ~ 15", which I believe is a good cumulative total. I think the current one is too light, but would be ok if it was only storm 2. But we'll see how it all shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 usually when you can see city glow from Montreal it means the cloud cover would warm us up, No kiddin'? You can see Montreal glow away in the distance from Newport on cloudy nights? Heh, it's only a few times a year that we can make out a glow in the southeast from the roaring metropolis of Hanover/White River Jct./West Lebanon. -SN just getting started now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The Woodford, VT spotter (2,100ft) is my jackpot location with 24". Jackpot thief! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Jackpot thief! Haha yeah that's all yours but I completely agree. There's a spotter up there that will come in with probably the highest amounts. If I *had* to guess another jackpot spot it would be Jaffery, NH in the Manadnocks... or 2,000ft in Peru, MA (Berks). Still, its going to be hard to beat 2,100ft in extreme southern VT. --SN just started here at 1,500ft in Stowe. Snowing a little steadier up at the top of the lifts at 3,600ft. Dry air is evaporating most of it in the over 2,000ft fall from top to the base here. I doubt its doing anything in Stowe village yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWeatherWatcher Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 First flakes starting to fly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Do we have a timetable for the storm to arrive up in NNE tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Very nice, red. Maybe it'll even over-achieve. Heard a scary forecast on the way in to work this morning from a met on the radio that usually gets things right. He was calling for 1-3 today / tonight and only 2-4 tomorrow. Unfortunately only heard the recorded version, and perhaps it was an old forecast but at 8AM they should have been playing the current forecast, and didn't get to hear his reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Actually I thought the map last night was ok ... had me at ~ 15", which I believe is a good cumulative total. I think the current one is too light, but would be ok if it was only storm 2. But we'll see how it all shakes out. I don't see storm 1 overperforming up here, looking at radar it looks like i am on the fringe so 1-3" is a good call, The Nam looks good on storm 2, But i still think we will end up with between 10-15" in that storm, If gyx has both storms in there they may be low, But i think they only are counting the one thats under the warning in there map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Do we have a timetable for the storm to arrive up in NNE tonight? Nam shows it starting here early am around commute time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nam shows it starting here early am around commute time... I'm thinking 4-7am in Stowe... meat of this falls between 7am-7pm with areas of light snow lingering all night after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm thinking 4-7am in Stowe... meat of this falls between 7am-7pm with areas of light snow lingering all night after that. Thanks So it looks like I won't need to shovel to get out in the morning but will need to shovel to get in the driveway at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Bang! WWA for today ... 3-5" Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Might well be snow in the air over AUG, but very dry near the surface so it'll be a while making it to the ground. Act 1 won't be very impressive in this area, anyway, but act 2 has postponed my BGR meeting tomorrow - not a good day for 150-mile round trips. Wonder what Punx'y Phil will think tomorrow - won't see his shadow but hard to call for an early spring when buried in snow/sleet. Clouds helped MBY dodge -20s, as it was about -13 at 10 last night but up to -2 by 7 AM. Since it's Feb. 1, here's the Jan summary for MBY: Avg temps: 24.42/2.77/13.60 That's 0.34 below my 13-yr avg. Mildest: 43 on 1st, mildest min. 32 on 2nd, mildest mean 36 on 1,2. Coldest, max/min/mean: 2/-20/-9 on 24th Precip: 1.98", 4th lowest of 13 and 0.88" below avg. Snowfall: 24.6", tied for 4th most, and 4.2" above avg. Except for 2007, the last 6 Januarys - though having very different wx - have been remarkably consistent for total snowfall: 2006...24.6" 2007...11.3" Winter hadn't gotten going yet. 2008...27.5" 2009...26.5" 2010...24.8" 2011...24.6" In addition, 1999, 2000, 2002 had 23.1", 22.9", 22.6", respectively. Edit: First tiny flakes at 11 AM in AUG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Bang! WWA for today ... 3-5" Sweet. NICE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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