NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does anyone see South Shore Nassau County getting .50"-1.00" ZR from late tonight through 3PM tomorrow ? This threat look real on the 6Z NAM, which never gets the 32 line north of the south shore beaches through the entire event. Am I looking at this wrong ? Won't the surface trend colder with strong low level CAA through out the entire event tonight and tomorrow with 1032 high and 1052 high much further west keeping it ZR completely ? Let's anticipate the worse so everyone is prepared in case it really comes to fruition. Isn't that 1/1994 0.75" ice storm the #1 analog for this event for this region ? Be careful with this event and expect the worse outcome so everyone is prepared and not shocked if we hacw massive ZR glaze on everything. It can ZR on the southshore of LI, I have seen this a lot in 1994. no, LI should see little ZR besides some freezing drizzle today. I think we go quickly to plain rain tonight. GFS goes mid to upper 30s for the main precip tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GooGoo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What is Upton thinking?!?!?!? The big jackpot this morning will be Putnam, Orange and Dutchess Counties. NYC doesn't have a prayer for 3 to 6 inches. In fact, even Westchester probably won't see that...maybe Northern Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Does anyone see South Shore Nassau County getting .50"-1.00" ZR from late tonight through 3PM tomorrow ? This threat look real on the 6Z NAM, which never gets the 32 line north of the south shore beaches through the entire event. Am I looking at this wrong ? Won't the surface trend colder with strong low level CAA through out the entire event tonight and tomorrow with 1032 high and 1052 high much further west keeping it ZR completely ? Let's anticipate the worse so everyone is prepared in case it really comes to fruition. Isn't that 1/1994 0.75" ice storm the #1 analog for this event for this region ? Be careful with this event and expect the worse outcome so everyone is prepared and not shocked if we have massive ZR glaze on everything. It can ZR on the southshore of LI, I have seen this a lot in 1994. 6z NAM gets the entire area above 32 by 8am tomorrow morning. Then .50"-.75" of 35 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 no, LI should see little ZR besides some freezing drizzle today. I think we go quickly to plain rain tonight. GFS goes mid to upper 30s for the main precip tonight. GFS doesn't go above 32 until 7am tomorrow. By then .25".-50" of ice falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What is Upton thinking?!?!?!? The big jackpot this morning will be Putnam, Orange and Dutchess Counties. NYC doesn't have a prayer for 3 to 6 inches. In fact, even Westchester probably won't see that...maybe Northern Westchester. this was what i said yesterday....at this point I just hope its OVEr 32 degrees before the next system gets in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS doesn't go above 32 until 7am tomorrow. By then .25".-50" of ice falls. its quicker than that for JFK, most of long island. I would think we are near or at 32 by midnight down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS doesn't go above 32 until 7am tomorrow. By then .25".-50" of ice falls. right- just like the GFS was spot on with the amount of snow we were getting. When was the last time NYC had a significant amt of ZR? and, when was the last time we had ZR with temps in the mid 30's the day before? or had ZR with temp is the mid to upper 20's during the start of the precip? To the best of my memory it has usually happened when the preceding airmass was brutally cold...temps in the low to mid teens etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Sparta NW NJ 7:25AM Snow ~1" Temp: 17 DP: 14 Wind: Calm Pressure: 1027.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The trend is your friend not every forecast is solely based on the computer models its called experience there is no such thing as overkill in these situation WSW catches peoples attention if it doesn't happen so be it. The plows will be out anyway salting so they can't blow the forecast and cost the muni's alot of money see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Your memory is pretty short. 1/18/2011 had freezing rain for 5 hours at Central Park. High temp. the day before was 27F (only 4F below yesterday's high). Temps at start of precip were in the mid 20s. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2011/1/18/DailyHistory.html right- just like the GFS was spot on with the amount of snow we were getting. When was the last time NYC had a significant amt of ZR? and, when was the last time we had ZR with temps in the mid 30's the day before? or had ZR with temp is the mid to upper 20's during the start of the precip? To the best of my memory it has usually happened when the preceding airmass was brutally cold...temps in the low to mid teens etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 right- just like the GFS was spot on with the amount of snow we were getting. When was the last time NYC had a significant amt of ZR? and, when was the last time we had ZR with temps in the mid 30's the day before? or had ZR with temp is the mid to upper 20's during the start of the precip? To the best of my memory it has usually happened when the preceding airmass was brutally cold...temps in the low to mid teens etc.... Real zr threat is for late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Surface temps are progged to drop after this initial WAA passes us this afternoon. I already have a coating of sleet and ice all over here but the real trouble is when we are all sleeping in the wee hours late tonight. Wake up tomorrow morning at 6am and then we'll talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Turkey Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 21 degrees in Ringwood with moderate snow and about an inch and a half fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Your memory is pretty short. 1/18/2011 had freezing rain for 5 hours at Central Park. High temp. the day before was 27F (only 4F below yesterday's high). Temps at start of precip were in the mid 20s. http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html January 99 also had a terrible FZRA event for NYC/north Queens and Brooklyn and the north shore of Nassau county...from around 5am-11am about .50-.75 ZR occurred while JFK and most south shore areas were 35-38...this could happen tomorrow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Your memory is pretty short. 1/18/2011 had freezing rain for 5 hours at Central Park. High temp. the day before was 27F (only 4F below yesterday's high). Temps at start of precip were in the mid 20s. http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html you mean drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 snowing in white plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Forecast surface temperatures for my location by the various models for 7am this morning. Euro said 23 degrees NAM said 20 degrees GFS said 19 degrees CURRENT TEMPERATURE IS 15 DEGREES. If this is a sign of things to come with tomorrow's storm, and I think it is. We are in BIG trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Since I live on the edge if forecast zones I almost always go with mt holly forecasts for middlesex or somerset rather than Upton's for union. It's the difference between 1 to 3 or 3 to 6 and in this case we can see which one will be closer What is Upton thinking?!?!?!? The big jackpot this morning will be Putnam, Orange and Dutchess Counties. NYC doesn't have a prayer for 3 to 6 inches. In fact, even Westchester probably won't see that...maybe Northern Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 got about 1/2" snow so far, changed to Freezing drizzle. temp -- 30.7° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What is Upton thinking?!?!?!? The big jackpot this morning will be Putnam, Orange and Dutchess Counties. NYC doesn't have a prayer for 3 to 6 inches. In fact, even Westchester probably won't see that...maybe Northern Westchester. 4.3" up here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 upton still forecasting 5 inches of snow for NYC, 4 for southern brooklyn as of 5am this morning, do they think the second part tonight is snow? I dont see how that will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 upton still forecasting 5 inches of snow for NYC, 4 for southern brooklyn as of 5am this morning, do they think the second part tonight is snow? I dont see how that will be possible. it isnt at all... there will be little to no more snow for southern sections of the CWA...925MB temps are quickly approaching 0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 nearing 1" here a mix of snow and sleet now. Needles, Dendrites, and Sleet Pellets....fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mixture of snow and sleet here...a little more snow the last few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Looks around 0.50 here in Brooklyn. No precip falling atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Up to 31 now in Long Beach with freezing drizzle continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Close to 4" here in southern dutchess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I think they were hedging on this front end portion being more impressive ...ironically this snowfall forecast would have been perfect for last Wednesday morning :-) upton still forecasting 5 inches of snow for NYC, 4 for southern brooklyn as of 5am this morning, do they think the second part tonight is snow? I dont see how that will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 .75" of snow and sleet covering everything here in Astoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 .75 mod snow cake mix consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Snowing moderately in Nanuet.. Large flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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