Saggy Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Just to say it would have been a brutal winter without this new board... I agree. I also kinda lean on it for planning my longer range winter recreational activities. When the Pros and knowledgeable amateurs start seeing potential down the road ( outside the standard 5-7 day range ) I start planning a road trip up North... especially when LEK, Kuligan and several others start talking possible lake events..I start packing my stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 12z GFS looks like a short lived Wind Advisory event for much of WNY. Strong issallobaric component late tonight into tomorrow morning should be just enough to push over the minimum criteria. Heres hoping it pans out as we've had a real wind drought around here this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 12z GFS looks like a short lived Wind Advisory event for much of WNY. Strong issallobaric component late tonight into tomorrow morning should be just enough to push over the minimum criteria. Heres hoping it pans out as we've had a real wind drought around here this fall. Yeah, it's been awhile since we've had one of these type events rip through the area... It'll be interesting to see what the max wind ends up in WNY....I'd bet we get a few 50+ mph gusts in the normally windy lake plain areas surounding Erie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yeah, it's been awhile since we've had one of these type events rip through the area... It'll be interesting to see what the max wind ends up in WNY....I'd bet we get a few 50+ mph gusts in the normally windy lake plain areas surounding Erie.... Wind advisory up for all of NWS BUF's CWA. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Lean-to is still there - had lunch at the picnic bench in there. You get nice view south toward some of the westernmost 3500'+ peaks such as Halcott, Vly, North Dome and Sherrill. The only negative was that they have let the trail grow up some ..brush and junk in places. Hopefully some maintenance will be done soon. The aqua Long Path trail markers looked pretty freshly painted though. Horrid here now wx-wise. Dense pea soup fog all day...held at 45F. Now steady rain underway. I hiked that several years ago. What I remember was there was a lean-to near the summit and a real nice fall view of the top of some lower hills in an "s" shape. There is still some snow hanging around here in the shady elevated areas. I really don't understand how it is still here, but it is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I almost went into panic mode when I went to Eastern and started reading about it shutting down. Google searched for Upstate NY Weather discussions and found everyone. It would have been a lonely winter without everyone's commentary. Camp in Redfield is all ready for winter. Bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 12z GFS looks like a short lived Wind Advisory event for much of WNY. Strong issallobaric component late tonight into tomorrow morning should be just enough to push over the minimum criteria. Heres hoping it pans out as we've had a real wind drought around here this fall. I think I was looking at a 0z initialized GFS model run when I made my statement about the time frame of this little wind event. The isallobaric component is certainly there, i just missed it by 12 hours or so. Anyway, add on 12-18 hours and all is well. The NWS has since come to a similar conclusion so I guess I should just shut up, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I think I was looking at a 0z initialized GFS model run when I made my statement about the time frame of this little wind event. The isallobaric component is certainly there, i just missed it by 12 hours or so. Anyway, add on 12-18 hours and all is well. The NWS has since come to a similar conclusion so I guess I should just shut up, lol. Its tough to get a wind event at night. I think daytime tomorrow is better (better mixing, lapse rates, etc) The one negative could be the rate of filling of the low resulting in less of a delta-p component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Also beginning to wonder if there will be shadowing issues in N-S valleys like the Hudson tonight. Rain has become almost a moderate mist up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Seems like just about everything has lifted north of the Mohawk on radar.... Won't bother me if we don't get much rain - this area is a clay mud hell now. We badly need the ground to freeze. Also beginning to wonder if there will be shadowing issues in N-S valleys like the Hudson tonight. Rain has become almost a moderate mist up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 post 100 =] we are now in a break in the rain here in Eggertsville. Got a 24mph gust so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 .19" here. Peak gust of 21mph. KTYX radar is down again too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 What a confused looking pattern early next week but dang does it look like it wants to get cold on black friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Hey everyone! I have been a viewer of the old blog for a while and since they made the change, I thought it was a perfect time to become a member:) Welcome aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I like the way the models are looking....after Thanksgiving into the first of Dec. things are looking very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUtwister Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 .. Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM this evening to 6 am EST Wednesday... The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a Wind Advisory... which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 6 am EST Wednesday. * Locations: Upper Mohawk valley and southern tug plateau. * Winds: southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts between 45 and 50 mph. * Timing: late tonight and early Wednesday. * Impacts: minor damage to trees. Sporadic power outages are possible. Travel could be impacted especially for those in high profile vehicles. Thanks for posting this! Would love to know what everyone thinks of this new format. We're hoping it's more user-friendly, but the NWS wants user input as it is still experimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Just to say it would have been a brutal winter without this new board... Agreed 100%!!! Getting windy here. First time i've felt so much as a breeze in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 This would be a nice black friday.. 0Z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Thanks for posting this! Would love to know what everyone thinks of this new format. We're hoping it's more user-friendly, but the NWS wants user input as it is still experimental. I have to say I really like the new format with the bullet-style layout instead of traditional paragraph form, definately much more direct and to the point. When I first saw this layout being used in the midwest region, I was hoping it would find it's way east into this region, hopefully it stays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY Mike Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 This would be a nice black friday.. 0Z gfs Looks great, for nine (or so) days out,. I'll hold off before getting too excited... Thanks for posting this! Would love to know what everyone thinks of this new format. We're hoping it's more user-friendly, but the NWS wants user input as it is still experimental. I love the new format: it's short and to the point, without any shenanigans involved. I think it's going to be great when I'm trying to go through things in a rush, and the general public is more likely to read it because it doesn't look like a long, boring paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 long range looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I have to say I really like the new format with the bullet-style layout instead of traditional paragraph form, definately much more direct and to the point. When I first saw this layout being used in the midwest region, I was hoping it would find it's way east into this region, hopefully it stays. Agreed, I like this new format a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think every retailer in the Northeast wants no part of that black friday storm! Looking at the NAO, PNA and AO all indicate that favorable conditions would exist for a storm in the late t-day night to dec. 1 period. Wouldn't that be nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Thanks for posting this! Would love to know what everyone thinks of this new format. We're hoping it's more user-friendly, but the NWS wants user input as it is still experimental. Its awesome better than the previous format. Concise and to the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 This would be a nice black friday.. 0Z gfs Wondering IF this will be "pulled" N&W as we get closer to the onset of this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Thanks for posting this! Would love to know what everyone thinks of this new format. We're hoping it's more user-friendly, but the NWS wants user input as it is still experimental. I like it. Right to the point without any fluff. I only complain when the NWS changes the new feeds around as it messes up my scripts that use the new XML feeds. Sometime they come county based and others zone based (my county has 2 zones) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYWx Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Glad to be here! I was a strict lurker on Eastern but plan to participate a little more, especially in the Regional threads. Hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYWx Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Hey everyone! I have been a viewer of the old blog for a while and since they made the change, I thought it was a perfect time to become a member:) Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It seems like more often that not the models are too quick in breaking down the big West Atlantic/SE USA ridge during the later Fall. Going slower with the pattern change is usually the prudent course. Of course we also also don't know if the energy will eject from the southwest in dispersed fashion or not..... Too vigorous a s/w and better the chance it breaks for an inland track over NY/NE. Then we also seem to have indications of a developing neg. NAO and that could mitigate to our favor with any low track...if it sets up fast enough.. I see the 6Z gfs went the big lakes cutter route - but that would usher in some very nice cold wx. Wondering IF this will be "pulled" N&W as we get closer to the onset of this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 LSR from this morning's storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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