rochesterdave Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 how weird that the offices aren't quickly getting after the new guidance. Was there any sever 'initiation' issues. We WNY getting from .5- .75 or so, I could easily see a six inch snowfall. But no headlines. Roc still has 30% chance sat nite and sunday. ridiculous. Are they so gun shy after the last event that they'll never forecast snow again? LOL. Here in Roc on the L ontario S. shore we actually ended up w/ about 8 inches from the bust storm after L enhancement kicked in on Wednesday and eve. Not soo much of a bust- but not the 15-22 kevin Williams forecast. I'd settle for a 7 inch synoptic event. Worried about temps a bit. GFS back on track (kinda) w/ next weeks monster. RochesterDave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Im worried about the dryslot..Both the nam and gfs give me sleet/ice to start with very little qpf wasted and then i turn over to snow..That dry slot is gonna be the killer 4 my area, can see it already.. Yes that will be a big problem for the MV...There will be at least some if not a lot of IP/ZR/RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYwhiteout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow. KSYR gets nailed by GEM/NAM/GOOFUS? Really?? Where'z 2slick? not sure i'm a buyer but on the other hand, my stock trading mind has had me thinking that SYR/CNY is due for some reversion to the mean action...as most synoptics - and surprises have been east and south thusfar this winter...that can't last forever...nothing does. Ive been watching this thing trend better and better the last 24hrs...I think its time to buy into things. It might actually pan out for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 how weird that the offices aren't quickly getting after the new guidance. Was there any sever 'initiation' issues. We WNY getting from .5- .75 or so, I could easily see a six inch snowfall. But no headlines. Roc still has 30% chance sat nite and sunday. ridiculous. Are they so gun shy after the last event that they'll never forecast snow again? LOL. Here in Roc on the L ontario S. shore we actually ended up w/ about 8 inches from the bust storm after L enhancement kicked in on Wednesday and eve. Not soo much of a bust- but not the 15-22 kevin Williams forecast. I'd settle for a 7 inch synoptic event. Worried about temps a bit. GFS back on track (kinda) w/ next weeks monster. RochesterDave they usually update their aviation section first "CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WILL SEE A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN LOWERING TO A MID DECK AROUND AFTER 10Z...BUT STILL VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL PA BY 00Z SUNDAY WILL BRING QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO LIFR IN MODERATE SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS 22Z-23Z IN THE WEST AND AFTER 00Z FOR KART. LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MOST LOCALES...EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Checked the models this morning, thought maybe an inch of snow here in the LG / southern dacks region, now we are under a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The numbers look good the only problem will be the temperatures; Right now, they will be marginal for the event.....But parts of central NY could see 4 inches maybe a bit more..As for the Hudson Valley I think 6-8 with localized spots maybe a bit more. GFL still looks like 2-4 inches. Parts of the Southern Tier will do very well. Earlier, I didn't think I would see any snow; but now I guess I could see up to a couple of inches. I was hoping for a solid 6 here too. Oh well it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I was hoping for a solid 6 here too. Oh well it is what it is. The way the models are changing you still could get that much...This might end up being a nowcast type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nws calling for 2-4" here with mixing, ill take what i can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The last 2 nights we have really droped with these clear skies..Last night got below 0.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Enjoy it , u guys are long over due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Good luck up there guys, If I didn't have kids-- I would have stayed a few more days. Snowpack isn't great up there compared to other years I've been up there, but nonetheless, I just love driving around with snow all over. Even though that storm somewhat sucked-- I had 11 inches over 3 days-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This is changing fast....Now it looks like Albany and points south will see 1-3 inches before the changeover...The other area's will stay where I had them earlier....I'm sure this will all change later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/gis-radar-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KBGM OUR BEST GUESS ATTHIS POINT...WAS FOR TOTALS OF 2-5" BY 09-12Z SUN OVER MOST OF NY`S SRN TIER...WITH AS MUCH AS 6-8" ACROSS NERN PTNS OF THE FA (ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO COUNTIES). IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SLOW DOWN AT ALL...WARNING CRITERIA AMTS WOULD BE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE NRN/ERN ZONES PRIMARILY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 With the last storm (moving in from the SW, and the models poor thermal progs right up to the event) I'm afraid that C/W NY is going to receive another dose of disappointment, wrt snowfall totals....as being forecast. Though most models depict llv profiles that keep a decent chunk of the W/C upstate region JUST cold enough for snow or frozen mixed with a little rain up to the I-90 corridor around SYR, this IMO, is still under done, wrt the warmth. That said, we should eventually change back to snow in most places (in the above mentioned areas) just later than progged....I see a couple back end inches around the SYR area, with a little more than that out toward BUF area, and in the SW southern tier. North and NE of Oswego Co. look pretty safe for meeting minimum warning criteria snows. Good luck to all! Another tough forecast with our tools malfunctioning a bit.....again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Also, note the way under modeled convection/precip field over S. VA/N. NC...and the more rapid (to the north) precip field into C/N OH at this time...this screams of under modeled drier/warmer air advecting quicker than modeled (again) to the NE from the S. OHV...keep expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 With the last storm (moving in from the SW, and the models poor thermal progs right up to the event) I'm afraid that C/W NY is going to receive another dose of disappointment, wrt snowfall totals....as being forecast. Though most models depict llv profiles that keep a decent chunk of the W/C upstate region JUST cold enough for snow or frozen mixed with a little rain up to the I-90 corridor around SYR, this IMO, is still under done, wrt the warmth. That said, we should eventually change back to snow in most places (in the above mentioned areas) just later than progged....I see a couple back end inches around the SYR area, with a little more than that out toward BUF area, and in the SW southern tier. North and NE of Oswego Co. look pretty safe for meeting minimum warning criteria snows. Good luck to all! Another tough forecast with our tools malfunctioning a bit.....again.... dejavu all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 NW track FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 George is it possible that the convective parameterization changes made last year are affecting numerical models? I thought it was only a GFS change but NAM wasn't great last storm either. Probably a question for a pro doing the actual model coding. Honestly, I think there are issues with most of the models' interpretation of the Appalachian mountains, or the handling of theta-e to the west of the mountains coming from the GOM....the new parameterizations seem to be doing fairly well along the EC during the recent storms, out that way. Of course, that all being said, 12z NAM is a good 1.5 degrees cooler at 850 for W/C NY.....DON'T BITE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Honestly, I think there are issues with most of the models' interpretation of the Appalachian mountains, or the handling of theta-e to the west of the mountains coming from the GOM....the new parameterizations seem to be doing fairly well along the EC during the recent storms, out that way. Of course, that all being said, 12z NAM is a good 1.5 degrees cooler at 850 for W/C NY.....DON'T BITE!! hope HRRR is wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Warm air streaming in fast! 14* at Albany at 9am... and 32.4* degrees here on the hill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Definitely looks better QPF-wise than the 06z. Now we need some good old luck. 27F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Definitely looks better QPF-wise than the 06z. Now we need some good old luck. 27F currently. fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 fingers crossed 850s are now above zero. Presumably freezing rain moving in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 850s are now above zero. Presumably freezing rain moving in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Honestly, I think there are issues with most of the models' interpretation of the Appalachian mountains, or the handling of theta-e to the west of the mountains coming from the GOM....the new parameterizations seem to be doing fairly well along the EC during the recent storms, out that way. Of course, that all being said, 12z NAM is a good 1.5 degrees cooler at 850 for W/C NY.....DON'T BITE!! I'm becoming increasingly confident that the models will have a solid handle on today's snow event by tomorrow's 6Z runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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