CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 12z euro the 0 850 line goes from BGM-GFL-RUT then crashes southeast with decent snows for BGM ALB GFL and northeast. Lol, nice edit. Any specifics as far as QPF? Also, another thing I've noticed is that despite the 850 0c line staying S / E of most of Upstate, the 540 thickness has been much further N / W on models like the UK / GGEM / RGEM. If the ECM is similar, I have to believe there is mixing concerns further N / W than the 850 0c line... atleast initially, especially with no real source of cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 What's with the LES off of Ontario? Was no mention of snow today but looks like a nice band has formed up near Watertown? Yes we did, it was mainly north of Rt 177, it has been light to moderate LES ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hey guys, having trouble finding info on the EURO...can anyone give a description of low placement and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I only have access to the free 12hr panes, which pretty much jump over this weekends storm. I'll have to wait til 0z to get a better view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Hey guys, having trouble finding info on the EURO...can anyone give a description of low placement and precip. you get about 0.3 0.25 contour runs N-S up NYS about 30 miles west of I-81 approx towards oswego and then across east just S of ART and then across lake champlain 0.5 contour runs from just east of BGM to across Southern lake champlain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 BGM BOTTOM LINE...GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WE`VE FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSE TO HPC`S QPF/SNOWFALL (WHICH IS ALSO NOT FAR FROM BOTH THE 21Z SREF AND OUR PREVIOUS GRIDS). THUS...WE`RE "STICKING TO OUR GUNS" AT THIS POINT...WITH A GENERAL 2-5" TOTAL IN OUR SERN ZONES...WITH LESSER AMTS AS YOU HEAD TO THE N AND W. ALTHOUGH SUCH AMTS ARE BORDERLINE ADVSY IN THE CATSKILLS/POCONOS...WE`VE DECIDED TO NOT HOIST ANY FLAGS AT THIS JUNCTURE...SO AS TO GIVE THE DAY CREW ONE MORE SHOT AT PERUSING A FULL SET OF GUIDANCE (WHERE HOPEFULLY AGREEMENT WILL BE BETTER). WE`VE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 it looks like .4 for BGM .5-.6 for ALB .6-.7 for GFL and with the max over south central VT. 2/3 of that is probably snow. the low tracks from northeastern PA to right around Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 NAM caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Maybe the king is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Dear NAM, I would greatly appreciate if you could stay the same now that were within 2 days, I really would like my 2-4 inches. Sincerely, Devin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Dear NAM, I would greatly appreciate if you could stay the same now that were within 2 days, I really would like my 2-4 inches. Sincerely, Devin Lemme know how that works out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Lemme know how that works out for you. For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 The biggest issue that I'm noticing (and it is also reflected on the 18z NAM) is the critical thickness values, particularly across C / E NY prior to 0z Sun. It looks as though most areas might only see light precip for Saturday Afternoon, and coupled with what should be <10:1 ratios for this timeframe, I think most areas will probably be hard-pressed to collect more than inch or so before nightfall across this area. I think for areas along / E of I-81 and south of the Dack's this is primarily going to be a Saturday Evening / Early Overnight event as temp profiles begin to cool and precip-rates increase as SLP begins to strengthen across SNE. I think this is going to translate to about a 3-8 hour period (Longest from W to E) of moderate snow with embedded bursts of locally heavier rates along / E of line from say BGM-SYR-Old Forge. I think some of our E NY posters could be in for an interesting Saturday Evening / Overnight, particularly N / E of the CD. I might consider posting a snowfall forecast following atleast a few of the 0z runs if I have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 If 1 was to believe the bufkit cobb outputt , kuca would be all snow and 5" of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1000-500mb thkns is right at 540 for kuca with 0.08" of qpf..Then .40 would clearly be snow.. I get a little more precip then kuca.. Is this what i think it is lol -3.4 -24.0 1000 100 TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The biggest issue that I'm noticing (and it is also reflected on the 18z NAM) is the critical thickness values, particularly across C / E NY prior to 0z Sun. It looks as though most areas might only see light precip for Saturday Afternoon, and coupled with what should be <10:1 ratios for this timeframe, I think most areas will probably be hard-pressed to collect more than inch or so before nightfall across this area. I think for areas along / E of I-81 and south of the Dack's this is primarily going to be a Saturday Evening / Early Overnight event as temp profiles begin to cool and precip-rates increase as SLP begins to strengthen across SNE. I think this is going to translate to about a 3-8 hour period (Longest from W to E) of moderate snow with embedded bursts of locally heavier rates along / E of line from say BGM-SYR-Old Forge. I think some of our E NY posters could be in for an interesting Saturday Evening / Overnight, particularly N / E of the CD. I might consider posting a snowfall forecast following atleast a few of the 0z runs if I have time. good post havent looked closely but at first glance, very marginal event unless you are under heavier precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 gfs looks like the NAM..Less precip into cny but that will be worked out over the next 24 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The biggest issue that I'm noticing (and it is also reflected on the 18z NAM) is the critical thickness values, particularly across C / E NY prior to 0z Sun. It looks as though most areas might only see light precip for Saturday Afternoon, and coupled with what should be <10:1 ratios for this timeframe, I think most areas will probably be hard-pressed to collect more than inch or so before nightfall across this area. I think for areas along / E of I-81 and south of the Dack's this is primarily going to be a Saturday Evening / Early Overnight event as temp profiles begin to cool and precip-rates increase as SLP begins to strengthen across SNE. I think this is going to translate to about a 3-8 hour period (Longest from W to E) of moderate snow with embedded bursts of locally heavier rates along / E of line from say BGM-SYR-Old Forge. I think some of our E NY posters could be in for an interesting Saturday Evening / Overnight, particularly N / E of the CD. I might consider posting a snowfall forecast following atleast a few of the 0z runs if I have time. Good post...Yeah...Looks like the CD will have a little bit of a mix tomorrow afternoon before it all changes over to snow....Looks like 4-8 is a good bet. But GFL looks to get maybe three to four inches, and north of there a trace to two inches Parts of the MV might get two inches. As usual I will get nothing out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 KALB 12Z MODELS RUNS CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.PCPN AMOUNTS ARE NOW RUNNING BETWEEN A THIRD AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NOW DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF WHERE IT HAD BEEN FORECAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEY HAVE ALSO BROUGHT ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR MUCH FURTHER NORTH...SO MIXED PCPN NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT BY SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN...WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON IN MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE ABOVE INFO...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERNVERMONT WHERE HEAVIEST PCPN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND MAY ALSO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN ELSEWHERE. IN ALL OTHER AREAS IT APPEARS THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINE...BUT HELD OFF ISSUING ANY FOR NOW SINCE PCPN DOES NOT ARRIVE IN MOST AREAS UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. HAVE BROUGHT MIXED PCPN AS FAR NORTH AS THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OFTHE MOHAWK VALLEY...SARATOGA COUNTY TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. HAVE ALSO FORECAST A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 9 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOWEST AMOUNTS DOWN SOUTH WHERE THE MOST MIXED PCPN OCCURS...AND OVER THE NW PART OF THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES WHERE PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST. WHERE MIXED PCPN IS FORECAST...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Good post...Yeah...Looks like the CD will have a little bit of a mix tomorrow afternoon before it all changes over to snow....Looks like 4-8 is a good bet. But GFL looks to get maybe three to four inches, and north of there a trace to two inches Parts of the MV might get two inches. As usual I will get nothing out of this. 0z NAM buries you i cant believe how this thing wont stop trending lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Mixing, verbatim into CNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z NAM buries you i cant believe how this thing wont stop trending lol Seriously, between the last event and this one... this is the most short-term model mayhem I've seen in a while. The 0z NAM just completely throws a wrench into everything as far as forecasts go. I just got done putting together a snowfall forecast graphic and was going to post it before I head out for the Evening in a bit, but I'm a bit leary now without seeing the rest of the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 WDF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Devin looks like the nam answered your prayers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 0z NAM buries you i cant believe how this thing wont stop trending lol Its ridiculous how sh*tty the models are handling this storm.. a 200 mile shift north from 12z. By tomorrow you will be in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 LOL, by 06z the NAM will further dryslot us and we won't even need to worry much about mixed precip or rain... This seems to get said every year, but I have never remembered such model fluctuations so close to events as I have this year. Seriously, between the last event and this one... this is the most short-term model mayhem I've seen in a while. The 0z NAM just completely throws a wrench into everything as far as forecasts go. I just got done putting together a snowfall forecast graphic and was going to post it before I head out for the Evening in a bit, but I'm a bit leary now without seeing the rest of the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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