ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tom. Elevation could play a role also...I think if Mt Holly could strip out the higher elevations across NW Chester County they would...not that it really matters as not too long after temps rise across Northern Chester County they will shortly do so in Southern Montgomery County and SE Berks County. I don't think I have ever seen them cut the counties in half with watches and warnings (but I could be wrong on that one)... Paul the reason why chester is grouped with delco and philly is because this storm is going to be a latitude storm. More latitude higher chance of frozen or freezing precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My Dad just got a call down in DC, they're driving back Monday morning, and then staging all the trucks they can get up there, by Monday night, north of Allentown somewhere in response to what's coming. They're expecting massive power outages, up to a week or more, with at least 3/4 inch of ice. Now granted this came from the power company, and not Mt. Holly, so take it with a grain of salt. But either way, ominous. I'm tellin ya! The neighborhoods affected were affected for over a week. It was a year or two before I got my job at Blue Ridge Cable's News13. I know they had Mark Nalesnik the Carbon County EMA Director live in studio talking about what folks should do (of course his message only worked with those that actually had power)... For anyone that is sick enough to be rooting for ice, don't be. Enjoy the fury of Ma nature, but root against ice...please! Especially with single digit lows forecasted just a night or two following the big storm....There are so many problems that will happen with massive and long term power outages... If I had no power for a week, I'm one of the lucky ones that would be put up @ the hotel near work--just so I could get to work--but others are not as lucky..they would be trapped, with no communications, no way to get on the roads, and worse... There is a serious threat for an historic ice storm here, a threat that needs to be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still not sure what's going to happen with sleet vs. ZR in Hazleton. It will be interesting to see which one we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so far through hr 30, the nam is a good bit warmer...not as strong of high pressure up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tom. Elevation could play a role also...I think if Mt Holly could strip out the higher elevations across NW Chester County they would...not that it really matters as not too long after temps rise across Northern Chester County they will shortly do so in Southern Montgomery County and SE Berks County. I don't think I have ever seen them cut the counties in half with watches and warnings (but I could be wrong on that one)... Paul What does the wxism say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I talked to folks who were without power for over a week in Carbon County from a few years ago and if you could imagine living in hell, a frozen hell, that's what they described... And those were mostly rural locations. Can you imagine larger cities like Allentown and Bethlehem without power for a week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so far through hr 30, the nam is a good bit warmer...not as strong of high pressure up north. Surface or aloft? More ice less snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not seeing it tombo, looks basically same to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Surface or aloft? More ice less snow? both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Surface or aloft? More ice less snow? Well, it's colder aloft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not seeing it tombo, looks basically same to me. Agreed...however there is much less overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks pretty similar to the 18z in my opinion. Maybe 5-10mi north of freezing 850s and 2m lines as of 30 hours compared to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not seeing it tombo, looks basically same to me. Same. Actually looks slightly colder towards the center of the storm up through Illinois and western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't think I have ever seen them cut the counties in half with watches and warnings (but I could be wrong on that one)... I think they would need separate SAME codes for each half of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Mt Holly updating again.... Colder than expected. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 4 PM FORECAST. WILL TOUCH UP THE GRIDS AGAIN AROUND 930PM AS HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE DISCONTINUOUS DECOUPLED FALLING TEMPS. ARCTIC AIR BEGINS ITS INEVITABLE SOUTHWARD SEEP INTO THE AREA. A CLASSIC COLD HIGH SETTING UP TO OUR NORTH AND THINK ITS SETTING THE STAGE FOR SUBSTANTIAL WINTER WX EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At 42 it's starting to look slightly warmer than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Out to 36 now it's definitely warmer than 18z, but not by too much. Certainly less overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not seeing it tombo, looks basically same to me. im comparing it on twisterdata...its deff warmer, maybe not so much 850s but the surface is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Out to 36 now it's definitely warmer than 18z, but not by too much. Certainly less overrunning precip. what site do you use? ncep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Surface temps are more similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what site do you use? ncep? Yea. Now I see at 42, definitely much warmer than 18z. Those watches were premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Surface temps are more similar to 12z. Even warmer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea. Now I see at 42, definitely much warmer than 18z. Those watches were premature. use twisterdata, its better. Its faster and does 3 hr increments. It shows 2m temps by every 5 degrees and does pt and click soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea. Now I see at 42, definitely much warmer than 18z. Those watches were premature. Just like the people at 18z flipping out because it showed death and destruction, no reason to say watches are premature because of the next NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea. Now I see at 42, definitely much warmer than 18z. Those watches were premature. does not really look that impressive for anyone regarding QPF. Temps are much warmer as noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I posted this in the LV thread but I think areas just south of the South Mountain need to pay attention to this.. From NWS Bing--who seem to not want to issue watches at this time...even though Mt Holly and State College already have... FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WYOMING VALLEY SNOWFALL MAY BE LIMITED TO ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS COASTAL DEEPENS STRONG CAA WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE BACK ALL PRECIP TYPES TO SNOW. If I lived anywhere north of the PA Turnpike East/West extension and south of I-84 i would seriously consider stocking up on batteries and flashlights--especially berks/lehigh/northampton/carbon/schuylkill county areas.... I am hoping we up here are far enough north to escape the worst of the icing and have a more snowy solution... I talked to folks who were without power for over a week in Carbon County from a few years ago and if you could imagine living in hell, a frozen hell, that's what they described... I endured the major ice storm in the poconos a few years back. I left the area before it hit but my neighbor was stuck on the mountain for days without help....or power. Lucky they have a wood stove for heat and a BBQ they used to cook. I installed a generator after that storm. Anyway....I made it back up there about 4 days after....it was rough getting up the mountain but made it in the hummer after the roads were treated with a layer of sand. I had no power the first night.....but flagged down a PPL crew the next morning and since there was juice at the pole and only a down line to the house they hooked me right up, along with my neighbors house. I then thawed out our homes which took a day and a half.....lucky no pipe damage as I shut down the water knowing what was coming. Anyway the real disaster was the trees down. Basically, every tree was at least topped. I used the hummer and a tow rope to clear one of my driveways so I could get off the street. The house and property was covered with tree limbs, branches and one downed tree. My former partner who has a house up there too sent a tree guy and his crew from Lacy NJ to clear our lots...in exchange they stayed at his house for a few weeks and raked in major bucks. For some...power took 2 weeks to restore. I was lucky as most of the damage on the mountain top was limited to lines and not poles. After a few days I had cable and telco restored. I learned the value of having a few lanterns that use tea candles.....they work great for light. Also, having a supply of dry firewood and dry good for food because most stores had no dairy...what they had went bad and new supplies took days as they waited to restore power for refrigeration. The amount of ice was amazing.....and the crap falling from trees 24/7, even after 4 days was incredible. I wore a hard had from the tree crew because some of the chunks falling were huge. It was like walking in a foot of ice cubes on top of several inches of ice...sleet and snow on the bottom. If something like this happens in your area...or is forecast....please take some time to prepare your home and family!! Stock up on water!! Use coolers and ice to save food. Cook up pasta ahead of time.....fill the BBQ tank!! Be prepared to go without power for days and depending on where you live....assistance might be hard to come by. I also purchased a small propane grill/burner set for camping and keep a case of canisters for it. If you have well water.....stock up on water....fill the baths for water to use for toilets....store drinking water...buy some. I cant stress enough...precook some meals if it looks like your location is going to get hit hard!! Eating cold chicken cutlets is my favorite hunker down meal. salads too. Cereals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Models always struggle with surface temps during these WAA events. It will be colder at surface then modeled. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 <br />Yea. Now I see at 42, definitely much warmer than 18z. Those watches were premature.<br /> Surface is still likely sub or around 32... Watches are definitely warranted...especially in the burbs and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 People need to get a grip; unbelievable. In these types of scenarios 1-3F makes all of the difference. And it is irrational to think that the models are going to stay constant in temperatures from run to run without waffling 1-3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 out to hr 51 the frz line may be a little further south, even though the temps may be a little warmer the CAD signature is more pronounced this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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