Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM still out of range for my area, but looks good to very good possibly. you guys back to my SW get absoultely defcom-5 DESTROYED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone see how DVN looks for the 00z NAM. I can't look at models right now. Thanks Still looks good if you like snow. While I don't think DVN is in the heaviest band, I think we'll do quite well and have the added impact from the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is starting to look very ugly for northern Indiana/northern Ohio/southern Michigan, with widespread 18-24" of snow at 84 hrs. on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost matches the GFS's precip shield, just a little less expansive. But you're right, that's a full blown blizzard on the north/northwest side. This sucker wraps up in a big hurry and displays a beautiful deformation band. The fluff with that DGZ getting blown apart by the wind means that stuff will blow like crazy. NAM dry adiabatic through a relatively deep layer--and this non-linear development always results in better mixing. With 50+ kts to mix and that dry fluffy snow--right now it looks like a serious blizzard threat through N IL/IN and southern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is starting to look very ugly for northern Indiana/northern Ohio/southern Michigan, with widespread 18-24" of snow at 84 hrs. on the 0z NAM. How, may I ask, is that ugly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is starting to look very ugly for northern Indiana/northern Ohio/southern Michigan, with widespread 18-24" of snow at 84 hrs. on the 0z NAM. I got worried at hour 74 that it was going to be warmer but I would assume as it strengthens it brings in the colder air pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All hail and bow to the king, the mighty Euro. Seriously. This is from the 26Jan / 00Z run: If there was any doubt as to the superiority of this model, I think it came crashing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 id like to see this thing get a stronger though, into the 980s, i think thats very possible doubt the models are going to have a good handle on that based on h5 TSSN should be rampant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost matches the GFS's precip shield, just a little less expansive. But you're right, that's a full blown blizzard on the north/northwest side. This sucker wraps up in a big hurry and displays a beautiful deformation band. csnavywx, sorry for the IMBY post here but I'm in southeast Missouri and I keep thinking we're going to be on the rain/snow line with mostly rain probable. What do these model plots say to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I cannot believe i am seeing this. Just WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00z hpc map http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I cannot believe i am seeing this. Just WOW!!! I think this is the one you've been waiting for Harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The fluff with that DGZ getting blown apart by the wind means that stuff will blow like crazy. NAM dry adiabatic through a relatively deep layer--and this non-linear development always results in better mixing. With 50+ kts to mix and that dry fluffy snow--right now it looks like a blizzard threat through N IL/IN and southern Michigan. No doubt in my mind DVN (the ASOS not the city) would verify a blizzard off that verbatim. Even if it is only a few fluffy inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 YEAH LAUGH AT ME NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ALL YOU GUYS TALKING CRAP NOW WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All hail and bow to the king, the mighty Euro. Seriously. This is from the 26Jan / 00Z run: If there was any doubt as to the superiority of this model, I think it came crashing down. the euro has been very good with this storm, excellent....yes i agree. GFS has consisistently trended in one direction which is good too and lends increasing confidence. the NAM has done very well also IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is the one we have all been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I cannot believe i am seeing this. Just WOW!!! jawdropping really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is starting to look very ugly for northern Indiana/northern Ohio/southern Michigan, with widespread 18-24" of snow at 84 hrs. on the 0z NAM. What does it look like for the delaware to marion side? Just trying to gauge the range from columbus to toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How would the wind potential be up here in S. WI? Just wondering because if the wind isnt a big deal up here, the ratios could be a bit higher then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 YEAH LAUGH AT ME NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ALL YOU GUYS TALKING CRAP NOW WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!! you got lucky.. "even the sun shines on a dog's ass some days" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 YEAH LAUGH AT ME NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ALL YOU GUYS TALKING CRAP NOW WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!! what a way to come back to the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 YEAH LAUGH AT ME NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ALL YOU GUYS TALKING CRAP NOW WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL take no offense when I say this (dont know how accurate you have been) but you know the saying "even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile" may apply here. Just joking of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How would the wind potential be up here in S. WI? Just wondering because if the wind isnt a big deal up here, the ratios could be a bit higher then. Suffice it to say, with that strong of a high pressure sliding down into the lower 48, there will at least be winds sustained in the 20s. Much greater than the majority of snow events we've had this year. Wind has been surprisingly absent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 would like to see the NAM come a bit more northwest in line with the Euro and I think it's possible but I wouldn't be complaining if this run verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is the one we have all been waiting for. guess ill be waiting for my storm like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 what a way to come back to the thread I find this freakin hilarious actually! Good forecast! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 YEAH LAUGH AT ME NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ALL YOU GUYS TALKING CRAP NOW WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!! lol, you are the greatest! It would be great to have you as a MOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looking like, based on the 0z NAM, about 1-2 inches near Columbus to possibly a foot near Marion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 you got lucky.. "even the sun shines on a dog's ass some days" There's still room for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Waiting for the MOS data to update. But looks like some freezing rain/sleet to maybe rain to heavy thumping snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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