michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It would be nice if ORD and DTW could experience a blockbuster snow event to ease the pain from the torture of what has been persistent cold but little snowfall. Thanks Don! A blockbuster would be awesome. But one correction. While weve certainly missed out on the historic storms hitting the east, snowfall is actually a little above normal. Season snowfall thru 1/29, DTW is at 27.2" which is about 2" above normal to date, and ORD is at 26.3" which is about 5" above normal to date. For the true winter lover who enjoys snow in the air most of the time, constant snowcover, and cold, this winter has been a dream. However, the biggest snowstorm of the season so far has been 6.3" at DTW and 5.9" at ORD, so certainly this storm has potential to put those to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Posted this in the new england forum but was wondering what the overall impact level thoughts were from a cross region perspective. Not trying to be too weenie since a lot is yet to be figured out but this looks to have the potential of one of the great winter storms of all time in terms of how broad of an impact it has across the entire US from the plains all the way to new england with a combo of heavy snow, heavy ice, wind, and even strong storms in the warm sector. I'd love to hear one of the weather historians put the potential in perspective in terms of another storm that has had such a broad impact. Most of the majors I've lived through have been limited to high impact focused on the east coast or focused on the midwest while the east coast torches. This seems to be an uncommon setup where it could cut pretty far north to hit the plains, midwest, ohio valley, and still get a large portion of new england with a mostly wintry appeal. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I made a regional forecast mostly for the Mid-Atlantic, but it's got some overlaps into other regions and I thought maybe some others would like to see it (especially since it's quickly getting buried in the Mid-Atlantic forum ) The strength of the cold air damming will be a big player in determining where the different areas set up. Based on recent guidance and trends, I've come up with the following maps depicting the first event (with light precip. totals over most of the region) and for the second event (which will have QPF in the 0.4-0.8" range for the most part in MD/North VA and 1"+ QPF possible in PA): Please note the word MOSTLY in the mixed precipitation and rain categories. This indicates that these areas will fluctuate a bit during the events. Some mixed precipitation is also possible in the snow areas. [/forecast spam] EDIT: and the update from yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hello, Looks like I joined at the right time, with this epic storm system pushing through. I have been tracking this system for the last 24 hours. I have a beta modeling system that I am testing out to see how well it performs, I would love inputs and feedback if possible I have tailoring along the predicted heavy ice and snow path from OK to MO to IL. Love thoughts on it. My output is at http://smartwxmodel.net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I know this is more of a general disco thread but in a very strongly worded WSW, the NWS in Indianapolis is calling this a catastrophic winter storm, particularly because of the potential for an inch or more of ice and strong winds. This heaviest zone of ice looks to basically cut right through the Indy metro area, which has over 2 million people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks Don! A blockbuster would be awesome. But one correction. While weve certainly missed out on the historic storms hitting the east, snowfall is actually a little above normal. Season snowfall thru 1/29, DTW is at 27.2" which is about 2" above normal to date, and ORD is at 26.3" which is about 5" above normal to date. For the true winter lover who enjoys snow in the air most of the time, constant snowcover, and cold, this winter has been a dream. However, the biggest snowstorm of the season so far has been 6.3" at DTW and 5.9" at ORD, so certainly this storm has potential to put those to shame. Thanks for the correction. I meant to state that they had little snowfall relative to some of the big cities of the East. I should have been more clear. Hopefully, the upcoming storm will dump a foot or more on Chicago, Detroit, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks for the correction. I meant to state that they had little snowfall relative to some of the big cities of the East. I should have been more clear. Hopefully, the upcoming storm will dump a foot or more on Chicago, Detroit, etc. Thanks Don Looks very likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks Don Looks very likely! So far things are looking. Hopefully, tomorrow night into Wednesday morning will be a memorable one for all those who love the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey guys, go brand new data uploaded into the SmartModel, going to push out runs in 3 hours for the following cities below, if you want a city added let me know. I have enabled all the model runs that I can ingest NAM, GFS, WRF. Hoping to get some good results and feedback if possible: Viewed on http://smartwxmodel.net Tulsa, OK Dallas, TX Chicago, IL Peoria, IL Danville, IL Indianapolis, IN Joplin, MO St. Louis, MO Dupage, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 FEMA issues Midwest Storm Warning KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- For the first time in recent memory, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has issued a warning about the approaching Midwest snowstorm. FEMA said the storm could affect as many as 100 million Americans across the nation. More http://www.kmbc.com/r/26678840/detail.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just uploaded all new runs for the cities looking at impressive snowfall rates and decent amounts of ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Two feet plus in ORD and DTW? And a foot in STL? It's on the table. I guess the only thing that sucks for the Midwest posters is that the stronger trends mean the R/S line is going to be farther north than the OH River. Its amazing seeing blizzard like conditions as far south as Dallas and Oklahoma City! And southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas also. Most of these places will get more snow in this storm than theyve had in several years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Its amazing seeing blizzard like conditions as far south as Dallas and Oklahoma City! And southwest Missouri and northern Arkansas also. Most of these places will get more snow in this storm than theyve had in several years! What happened to the storm tracking thread? I need SACRUS for this storm! Thanks mods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i wish i was in chicago tonight METAR KORD 012351Z 06026G36KT 1/2SM R14R/3000V5000FT SN BLSN BKN003 OVC012 M06/M07 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 05038/2304 SLP135 931028 SNINCR1/6 4/006 P0002 60009 T10561067 11050 21056 58048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looking at the CONUS radar and the WV loops (hey, the NWS site works now!) WOW. This is one SICK bugger right there. This wasn't supposed to be a lakes cutter because of a very strong PV up north in Canada... only a really really powerful storm would cut through the lakes/OV in this kind of set-up. This storm is IT. If this storm with that kind of dynamics took a classic nor'easter track, it would have been the blizzard of 1996 only with BIGGER accumulations (with the help of atlantic moisture, which this storm does NOT have). Really opens up a possibility that we have not encountered before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Looking at the CONUS radar and the WV loops (hey, the NWS site works now!) WOW. This is one SICK bugger right there. This wasn't supposed to be a lakes cutter because of a very strong PV up north in Canada... only a really really powerful storm would cut through the lakes/OV in this kind of set-up. This storm is IT. If this storm with that kind of dynamics took a classic nor'easter track, it would have been the blizzard of 1996 only with BIGGER accumulations (with the help of atlantic moisture, which this storm does NOT have). Really opens up a possibility that we have not encountered before. Terp, would it be safe to say that it would be like February 5-6th 2010 hybird with January 7-8th 1996? That would quite frankly be absurd if it did it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Terp, would it be safe to say that it would be like February 5-6th 2010 hybird with January 7-8th 1996? That would quite frankly be absurd if it did it here. I personally think so. And I think it's possible for it to happen like that in the future. Probably sooner than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I personally think so. And I think it's possible for it to happen like that in the future. Probably sooner than we think. Terp, Not to sound like an idiot (but I probably am being one here), I would say there is a SLIGHT chance it happens when the block returns for late February-early March as Don Sutherland's hinted. He talked about the 2000-2001 analog for blocking to return I believe, leads me to think that March might be the one to watch, I hope. Good thoughts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Cantore has had some "Worcester moments" tonight. Epic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Can someone explain why all the wind in Chicago? I mean, from the severity of the winds and the intensity of the entire storm, here on the east coast, wed certainly expect to see sub 986 pressure level in any low producing these conditions.. Yet when I look at the current storm, shes sitting there in se Illinois at around 1000mb! Does 1000mb mean something different in the midwest than it does here in the northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Can someone explain why all the wind in Chicago? I mean, from the severity of the winds and the intensity of the entire storm, here on the east coast, wed certainly expect to see sub 986 pressure level in any low producing these conditions.. Yet when I look at the current storm, shes sitting there in se Illinois at around 1000mb! Does 1000mb mean something different in the midwest than it does here in the northeast? I think it is a function of the PGF (pressure gradient force). Since the high to the north is so strong it's creating an incredible gradient which is causing all that wind. Not entirely sure, but that would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I think it is a function of the PGF (pressure gradient force). Since the high to the north is so strong it's creating an incredible gradient which is causing all that wind. Not entirely sure, but that would be my guess. Yes, definitely, we just had a 1050mb arctic high plunge into Montana, so there's a large gradient in play. Also, the intense precipitation generated by a powerful low pressure allows higher winds to mix down the column; there's been a lot of convective banding over MO/IL that means more of the high winds mix to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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