Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

[Storm Clouds]

No big threats here thats why its quiet. The philly threads get exited when every time they see a fish storm a week out. Xmas is a week away wait till thur to get excited.

Actually the storm starts Friday evening...5 days out? Also, there is very good agreement with most of the models.

[Voyager]

" Basically there is really no good, concise information for inland areas (away from the I-95 cities) with regard to models and upcoming storm threats."

Given the high concentration of meteorologists in the State College area, that's both surprising and disappointing.

Indeed it is, especially since nearly every other NWS office in the region has at least one met who is a member/posts on the boards.

[PSU8315]

I will say that I think the Christmas storm is the most promising threat we've had so far this season in Central PA. The modeling has been pretty consistent on the idea of a storm and the dynamics appear to be in pretty good alignment. By the way, even though I hate 18z runs, check out the 18z GFS run if you haven't already. That would probably be the best case scenario for us.

That all being said, most of my attention right now is figuring out what this Tuesday clipper wants to do, because the effects of that are only 36-48 hours away and it could certainly put down a light accumulation of snow along the Route 219 corridor.

[dcfox1]

Actually the storm starts Friday evening...5 days out? Also, there is very good agreement with most of the models.

I know what you said, just trying to stir things up here. Back to football. I want that big storm.

[canderson]

My parents are set to fly into town Christmas afternoon. They haven't been here in 3 years, I hope this storm doesn't strand them. If it could hold of until evening that'd be great. Thnx! Ha

[MAG5035]

" Basically there is really no good, concise information for inland areas (away from the I-95 cities) with regard to models and upcoming storm threats."

Given the high concentration of meteorologists in the State College area, that's both surprising and disappointing.

Yea come to think of it, it is fairly surprising. State College of course has the NWS office not to mention one of the larger private sector employers of mets in Accuweather...one would think that this region would at least have several more pro mets than currently.

On the storm threat(s) this coming week... the Tuesday clipper IMO will likely provide a light snowfall to roughly the western half of the state. The main suspects will be the Laurels, which may pick up 2-4 inches in the high spots. Once on the east side of the Laurel's the snow shield of what will be a weakening clipper likely busts up. I could see 1 to perhaps 2 inches in spots along the I-99 corridor but not really much once you get too far east and southeast of that. Sometimes the models can underestimate the precip shield's endurance over the mountains in these cases, so we'll see.

I'm fairly excited about the X-mas eve/day event that is on the horizon...albeit cautiously. Fair confidence in this being at least a pretty good light snowfall chance for most everyone. GFS and Euro have been in half decent agreement on this low for a couple cycles now, which certainly couldn't be said about what ended up to be a non-storm for the mid-atlantic today. The evolution of this low is not really as complicated... as it should traverse the country in a fairly flat line. What could potentially be interesting is secondary development possibilities. Lots of time to watch.

[2001kx]

I will say that I think the Christmas storm is the most promising threat we've had so far this season in Central PA. The modeling has been pretty consistent on the idea of a storm and the dynamics appear to be in pretty good alignment. By the way, even though I hate 18z runs, check out the 18z GFS run if you haven't already. That would probably be the best case scenario for us.

That all being said, most of my attention right now is figuring out what this Tuesday clipper wants to do, because the effects of that are only 36-48 hours away and it could certainly put down a light accumulation of snow along the Route 219 corridor.

[hckyplayer8]

Tonight's ECM run made me tingle in odd places. Here's to consistency.

[PSU8315]

Tonight's ECM run made me tingle in odd places. Here's to consistency.

Although the Euro says...let's wait until the 26th for the storm. That was certainly an impressive run - let's see if it keeps that idea at 12z.

[canderson]

12z GFS says storm on, and slows it down toward the 0z Euro solution as well. But I can't tell exactly how well we fare insland. SNE gets crushed. It'd be all sorts of awesome if this hit in the early evening Christmas so everyone could get where they need to be for the most part safely.

[2001kx]

Although the Euro says...let's wait until the 26th for the storm. That was certainly an impressive run - let's see if it keeps that idea at 12z.

looks too far east to do west / central pa any good.

[afvet89]

http://204.2.104.196...-SNOW_144HR.gif this is why I hate living in central Pa .this happens all the time now,well for the past several yrs anyway. we are in the bermuda triangle for snow. notice to the west south and east,its just incredible.You would think statistically , we would back into a good snowstorm eventually but we never do.Its like rolling snake eyes every time except only the luck is bad.LOL

[sauss06]

looks too far east to do west / central pa any good.

I agree, though us in the lower Susq. valley may fair out better then you. Your more West and North of us.

EDIT to add.....maybe not lol

[Atomixwx]

That's some depressing ish right there.

[PSU8315]

12z GFS says storm on, and slows it down toward the 0z Euro solution as well. But I can't tell exactly how well we fare insland. SNE gets crushed. It'd be all sorts of awesome if this hit in the early evening Christmas so everyone could get where they need to be for the most part safely.

00z Euro actually brought the snow pretty far inland -- looked like 3-5" all the way back to Altoona & State College. That being said, the 12z raw numbers are starting to crawl in, and it looks it's going to be wide right this run...

Almost no precip even in Harrisburg/Philly. New York gets some, Boston gets quite a bit...

[PSU8315]

Yep, the surface map on the 12z Euro looks very similar to 00z, only 150 to 200 miles east.

[sauss06]

Yep, the surface map on the 12z Euro looks very similar to 00z, only 150 to 200 miles east.

Thanks for your updates. sounds like our chances are getting slimmer.

[PSU8315]

Thanks for your updates. sounds like our chances are getting slimmer.

I can't say I like the fact that it is now more of a coastal storm solution. The original idea of a storm cutting to our south would be easier to pull off and Central PA does well in those types of overrunning events. With this being more of a southern branch feature, there are many more variables at stake and much easier for us to get shafted again.

That all being said, I don't put much stock into these early model runs until the upper-level energy moves onto the West Coast, which should be Wednesday or Thursday. The models struggled with the clipper for tomorrow until the energy really came onshore and could be modeled better.

[2001kx]

henrys snow map for what its worth.

accuweather.com

[sauss06]

I can't say I like the fact that it is now more of a coastal storm solution. The original idea of a storm cutting to our south would be easier to pull off and Central PA does well in those types of overrunning events. With this being more of a southern branch feature, there are many more variables at stake and much easier for us to get shafted again.

That all being said, I don't put much stock into these early model runs until the upper-level energy moves onto the West Coast, which should be Wednesday or Thursday. The models struggled with the clipper for tomorrow until the energy really came onshore and could be modeled better.

I was just telling a coworker the latest as they ask all the time. I thought she was going to cry. I told her hey, its a couple days away, any thing can happen. I reminded her in 2002, there was only a little chatter from local mets about a poss. White X-mas, then on the 24th in the morning they scrambled to get the word out, by lunch time here, it was a damn near free for all, with last minute shopping and such. I told her to keep the faith

[Itstrainingtime]

After looking at the latest models, I'll admit, I was really disheartened. Then I remembered how special last winter was here along the southern tier, and how selfish I was getting. Climatologically speaking, here in Lancaster we can expect one 12" storm every 10 years. Last winter alone we had 3, and 2 of those came in 5 days. On the morning of 2/11, I had a nearly 36" snowcover.

I have no reason to complain whatsoever...

[canderson]

Models are so funny. LOL at the 12z models going. Good for SNE though, they deserve a big event as they've been screwed a lot in the past two years.

PSU8315, thanks again for your opinions on these things. Maybe this will end up hitting us all.

It's kind of odd to me though that Harrisburg is grouped with NC and N PA still because our weather is so much more in line with Philly than even State College imo. We are in that Bermuda triangle that gets cut off from app runners, too far west for many coastals and too south for some Miller storms!

[dcfox1]

I was just telling a coworker the latest as they ask all the time. I thought she was going to cry. I told her hey, its a couple days away, any thing can happen. I reminded her in 2002, there was only a little chatter from local mets about a poss. White X-mas, then on the 24th in the morning they scrambled to get the word out, by lunch time here, it was a damn near free for all, with last minute shopping and such. I told her to keep the faith

I remember that they were still calling xmas day here rain ending as a little snow. It turned over in the morning and we get if i remember right around 8 inches of wet snow. Roads were bad since it caught penndot off guard.

[afvet89]

Models are so funny. LOL at the 12z models going. Good for SNE though, they deserve a big event as they've been screwed a lot in the past two years.

PSU8315, thanks again for your opinions on these things. Maybe this will end up hitting us all.

It's kind of odd to me though that Harrisburg is grouped with NC and N PA still because our weather is so much more in line with Philly than even State College imo. We are in that Bermuda triangle that gets cut off from app runners, too far west for many coastals and too south for some Miller storms!

Maybe so but at least last yr you guys did very well. SNE aint got nothing on us! This is the area that has been screwed alot over the years. Just setting the record straight.

[canderson]

I know last year you guys were really, really screwed. But I thought you had a good year prior and a few before then? I can be totally wrong about that! You and SNE both deserve storms, definitely.

[PSU8315]

henrys snow map for what its worth.

accuweather.com

I'm not exactly sure how you can honestly put out a snow map from this far out when there isn't even close to a consensus. Top amounts seem rather low - barring this going out to see, I expect 6"+ amounts somewhere in the Northeast from this system.

I'm just glad we're not on the bulls-eye on this map - that's usually the kiss of death...

[MAG5035]

I can't say I like the fact that it is now more of a coastal storm solution. The original idea of a storm cutting to our south would be easier to pull off and Central PA does well in those types of overrunning events. With this being more of a southern branch feature, there are many more variables at stake and much easier for us to get shafted again.

That all being said, I don't put much stock into these early model runs until the upper-level energy moves onto the West Coast, which should be Wednesday or Thursday. The models struggled with the clipper for tomorrow until the energy really came onshore and could be modeled better.

Speaking of the clipper, its def looking pretty much like nothing off the Laurels and maybe a coating to a inch on them if enough of that snow shield makes it southeast. The last couple model runs haven't even gotten anything into PA .

Have to say I agree about the X-mas event, aside from the many more variables it just doesn't seem like this particular pattern is very conducive for us to get cracked with a coastal storm. I was encouraged with the earlier model runs showing more of an overrunning solution with the flatter low traversing south of PA. But yea, we still got a couple days before the energy gets into a better sampled area.. and there is a tremendous moisture feed coming into the Cali coast via the Pineapple express. Should be interesting.

[MAG5035]

haha, CTP HWO out for southern and southeastern counties.. vs PBZ HWO for their whole coverage.

State College:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS

WEEKEND. THE STORM COULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

Pittsburgh:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CROSS THE REGION ON

CHRISTMAS DAY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING

SNOW. HOLIDAY TRAVELERS SHOULD ESPECIALLY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT

OF THAT SYSTEM THIS WEEK AND BE PREPARED TO ALTER ITINERARIES.

[canderson]

We still got us a snowstorm on the maps for Christmas day/Dec 26, fellas. 0z Euro, which many mets are saying is underplaying precip, has HBG between .5-.75. 0z GFS had it crazy high per usual.

Good model consensus still, it'll be interesting to see if the phase stalls out in the next few days of runs.

[PSU8315]

We still got us a snowstorm on the maps for Christmas day/Dec 26, fellas. 0z Euro, which many mets are saying is underplaying precip, has HBG between .5-.75. 0z GFS had it crazy high per usual.

Good model consensus still, it'll be interesting to see if the phase stalls out in the next few days of runs.

Yeah, 0z Euro has a 970mb monster just south of Long Island Sunday night and has been pretty consistent over the past three runs. QPF looks like a decent snowfall east of Route 15. Canadian also has this general idea, although it is a bit farther east.