earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I posted earlier the UKMET was a smidge warm at 850 for all the local stations around NYC AT 60 hours 7PM Wednesday but what I didn't realize was that the precip was just starting. Here is the ukmet at 60 hours. At 72 hours the soundings are still saturated enough to give snow which means its slower than the GFS and thus what falls after 60 hours for the next 12 hours is probably all snow. What I am driving at is IMHO the UKMET is a colder version of the GFS. It probably would end up a hair warmer if you were to just take the general GFS thermal profile idea--but maybe the UKMET would pick up on something, who knows. That being said..it's further northwest with the surface low than the GFS ever brings it. The GFS is already east-northeast of Ocean City, MD at 60 hours whereas the UKMET is backed further south but also further northwest..the GFS never tucks it in to that location. So that can be noted, for whatever it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It probably would end up a hair warmer if you were to just take the general GFS thermal profile idea--but maybe the UKMET would pick up on something, who knows. That being said..it's further northwest with the surface low than the GFS ever brings it. The GFS is already east-northeast of Ocean City, MD at 60 hours whereas the UKMET is backed further south but also further northwest..the GFS never tucks it in to that location. So that can be noted, for whatever it's worth. But I think the UKMET holds the cold positioning longer and based on the surface map at 72 hours I think it would be very nice in between. The only warm layer on the ukmet at 60 hours is 850 so as it bombs and cools Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Terrific depiction of a classic comma head and associated cold conveyor belt. Somebody is going to enjoy a few hours of poundage underneath that band in strong banding. It is, but with couple days to go yet, I wonder where it will ultimately set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RGEM and GGEM at 48 hours are twins. GGEM gets an F---- if the trends verfiy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 It is, but with couple days to go yet, I wonder where it will ultimately set up. Yeah, pinpointing the exact banding can be a real pain. Usually this is the range when most models (both globals and mesoscale models) will begin to hone in on the general area of the banding. Where the actual areas of banding and subsidence set up will be much more of a mesoscale forecasting deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z GGEm is still warm but it keep shifting east substantially each successive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 THE 12z GGEM has a sick CCB over nyc area at 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think many on this board if current model overall ideas/outputs are correct (especially the EUR0) GFS is close (but it still is splitting the energy a little too much) will be VERY HAPPY with the CCB on this storm. Yes, some rain/mix at the start and the middle (depending on exact location) but the EURO advertises and the GFS is almost there, a significant snowstorm for most. Hate to put a number yet but right now Im expecting 5-10" for NYC & N/C NJ within 15 miles of I-95. More NW... Not bad... Pretty much my thinking as well and has been the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z GFS ensembles look pretty close to the OP except that its faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So will all the local mets bust on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RGEM and GGEM at 48 hours are twins. GGEM gets an F---- if the trends verfiy. i put the GGEm post 48 hrs in the same mix as the NOGAPS and UKMET....there isnt even a trend benefit like there could be with the extended times on the NAM and GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So will all the local mets bust on this? If they are/were hugging the GEM, very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I imagine this is one of those forecasts where the spreads for snow totals have to be significantly wider. I mean, if you're forecasting for the NYC metro, you'd almost have to put the low end at around 2" and the high end at 10", which is obviously way too wide, But if you call for 5-10", it's highly possible the low end won't verify. With that in mnd, I'm thinking 3-6" or 4-8" is the call for the immediate NYC metro area at this time, with a good chance that could change in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS 60 hour sounding- mixed sleet/snow/snow pellets? Edit to Add- not quite saturated at -10ºC- more sleet than snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS 60 hour sounding- mixed sleet/snow/snow pellets? Probably. Should change to snow in the next hour or two as those east winds shift northeast and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS 60 hour sounding- mixed sleet/snow/snow pellets? Edit to Add- not quite saturated at -10ºC- more sleet than snow? Hard to form snowfalkes with that sounding. Looks like light rain or freezing drizzle off sounding. But based on the 6hr panels it looks suspicious. With deeper lift I'd expect sleet or rain changing to large aggregated snowflakes as intensity increases and mid-levels cool slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Snowgrowth looks pretty miserable until late Wed night. Saving grace might be deep near freezing layer allowing for lots of clumping of flakes. Parachute bombs incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its experimental but the ggem precip maps are not as snowy as the gfs. This is 66 hours when the GFS is clearly all snow for NYC, western LI and back through Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Probably. Should change to snow in the next hour or two as those east winds shift northeast and north. Greg, the winds are actually northeast the whole time with this storm in our neck of the woods. Surface winds tilt across surface isobars towards the low pressure center rather than exactly parallel to the isobars. It has to do with friction. When you go further up in the atmosphere and friction becomes less of an issue, winds will blow parallel to pressure contours, except in jet entrance/exit regions where our weather happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, this is going to be a tough forecast for Mt. Holly, and the TV meteorologists. I do not envy the spot that Glenn Hurricane Schwartz is probably going to be in when he gives his forecast tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, this is going to be a tough forecast for Mt. Holly, and the TV meteorologists. I do not envy the spot that Glenn Hurricane Schwartz is probably going to be in when he gives his forecast tonight! They have time with this aiming for Wed. night-Thurs morning now. Hopefully things become a little more clearcut, or at least consistent on the guidance. I doubt this transitioning situation will be perfectly forecasted just because it's the nature of this type of an event, but it would be nice to see at least good model clustering to interpret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its experimental but the ggem precip maps are not as snowy as the gfs. This is 66 hours when the GFS is clearly all snow for NYC, western LI and back through Jersey. We'll just have to deal with the blurry improvements it made from 0z. Fortunately, most of us didn't see this kind of map last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, this is going to be a tough forecast for Mt. Holly, and the TV meteorologists. I do not envy the spot that Glenn Hurricane Schwartz is probably going to be in when he gives his forecast tonight! Agreed. This is really REALLY dicey for our metro area. I think DT's map a few pages back is a pretty good place to start. Mainly a rain/mix event for south Jersey, and a mix to snow event for Philly and the immediate counties north/west, with about 3-6 of wet snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Little edit on that GGEM map, there is a front end snow too. Here is the whole loop. This is actually colder and snowier for some that I first though. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the issue with this is clearly displayed on the JFK soundings on the 12z GFS....it appears 2/3 of the precip falls with both the boundary and 850mb above 0c....this is not a big snowstorm for coastal areas....you will need to be inland and/or with good elevation to carry the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Greg, the winds are actually northeast the whole time with this storm in our neck of the woods. Surface winds tilt across surface isobars towards the low pressure center rather than exactly parallel to the isobars. It has to do with friction. When you go further up in the atmosphere and friction becomes less of an issue, winds will blow parallel to pressure contours, except in jet entrance/exit regions where our weather happens. Sounds like youre starting to change your mind about this being predominantly a rain system even half and half would be just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agreed. This is really REALLY dicey for our metro area. I think DT's map a few pages back is a pretty good place to start. Mainly a rain/mix event for south Jersey, and a mix to snow event for Philly and the immediate counties north/west, with about 3-6 of wet snow total. Sounds like a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How much is the guidance showing so far for us in E PA? I usually ask in PM but I can't access this from my phone.. Or at least cant see as good. DT's first call looks good fore though. Most guidance is still a miss for us besides the UK and EURO so far. Even the GGEM misses us with the heavy precip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the issue with this is clearly displayed on the JFK soundings on the 12z GFS....it appears 2/3 of the precip falls with both the boundary and 850mb above 0c....this is not a big snowstorm for coastal areas....you will need to be inland and/or with good elevation to carry the day. JFK is not a good reflection of what would transpire in NYC, EWR, TEB or even LGA in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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