shadow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 we don't want a ton of sleet we want a ton of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think they are saying.. "we have no effing clue What this system will bring, lets lower pops for the hell of it" It amazes me that nws has failed to recognize the seasonal NW trend around 42-72 hours out. Especially when its happened the last 5 storms I think it's amazing that you seem to feel the NWS (box) is some how clueless. You sound like the people that say "The weathermen never get it right." I've relied on the NWS BOX/ALB for the day to day operations of my business for decades and i can tell you they do a fantastic job. They would be derelict in their duties if they forecast based on seasonal trends or gut feeling. If they reflect some doubt as to what will transpire it's because there IS doubt as to what this storm portends. That said, I do feel this storm will land a direct hit at least for the interior but, as WeatherX so kindly pointed out last night, my call is useless.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 we have time still like until monday to get a final solution on the track some say ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it's interesting how this has turned from a Tue-Wed storm to a Wed nt-Thu storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think its somewhat important to set the bar appropriately for your storms results on this one. There are red flags from Box on why this likely isn't going to be a wide spread heavy heavy snow storm. But the party is blarring and i think Ginx is about to kick me out if i speak about this above my breath.....and there are chicks dancing on the bar...pouring shots down my throat so i think i'll just cross my fingers and close my eyes that the BL doesn't get torched as the heavy precip on this one moves in. euro 7pm wednesday has 0c line outside 495 w/ 2c 850 line from Bos area wsw to 128 and cuttin down thru NE Ri and SE CT. it sounds like there could be a narrow area of heavy snows.....perhaps E slopes to monads or if the storm is a tad further SE.....Ct Hills to Orh hills/wachusett area.....i think elevation will be a bit bigger factor than most of the storms so far this winter. thou i think my area could see a solid 6-12 if things thread the needle regarding heavy qpf and warming BL. Box really hit it out of the park with that discussion. One of their best , non snow lover straight down the middle afds I've ever read! There are many concerns, warm air, 6z tracks, dry slots, data sampling etc. They put it all out there in an unbiased fashion. All I can say is wow, great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it's amazing that you seem to feel the NWS (box) is some how clueless. You sound like the people that say "The weathermen never get it right." I've relied on the NWS BOX/ALB for the day to day operations of my business for decades and i can tell you they do a fantastic job. They would be derelict in their duties if they forecast based on seasonal trends or gut feeling. If they reflect some doubt as to what will transpire it's because there IS doubt as to what this storm portends. That said, I do feel this storm will land a direct hit at least for the interior but, as WeatherX so kindly pointed out last night, my call is useless.lol I can't fathom snowNH trying to forecast a storm. It would be: 1. Euro shows a huge hit: "2-3 feet of snow, blizzard warnings!!!!" 12 hours later: Euro shows it out to sea: "OMG no snow...don't worry about shoveling folks, this one is out to sea!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Way more complicated than that. I have legit concerns about what happened at 06z and the 09z SREF. Something new was seen on those suites. Even on the amped up solutions that give a lot of precip, there is plenty of mid-level warmth to be concerned about. Euro gave you a ton of sleet. this run of the euro looks like one of those rare storms...happens every once in a while...where someplace inland is predominantly sleet from almost start to finish. surface definitely stays cold over the interior but there's a lot of low and mid-level warming. just one run so who knows but it's interesting. i'm also curious about the magically disappearing vortmax the gfs is now showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it's interesting how this has turned from a Tue-Wed storm to a Wed nt-Thu storm? Need to get this to a post midnight storm. As usual I'll be flying home in yet another coastal. Really really getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Way more complicated than that. I have legit concerns about what happened at 06z and the 09z SREF. Something new was seen on those suites. Even on the amped up solutions that give a lot of precip, there is plenty of mid-level warmth to be concerned about. Euro gave you a ton of sleet. What are these new concerns that you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can't fathom snowNH trying to forecast a storm. It would be: 1. Euro shows a huge hit: "2-3 feet of snow, blizzard warnings!!!!" 12 hours later: Euro shows it out to sea: "OMG no snow...don't worry about shoveling folks, this one is out to sea!!!" LOL! You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol...well at face value it doesn't. that's all i'm laughing at. it certainly could end up big. but it's premature to get jacked about it. i mean obviously it's open to interpretation etc. and we can say it would be this or it would be that, but the model (the 00z euro) *verbatim* is nowhere near a crushing for everyone. by h96, essentially the height of the storm...it is warm for a lot of folks. not necessarily YBY, but for a lot of people in the E half of MA, all of RI, parts of CT etc. Thanks for detailing that Phil for those of us with no access. Agreed entirely. Taking it another step like will said their are big red flags. Among them are the dual solution cones - warm but wet or dryer and colder. Models are really struggling with something and we are seeing the extreme solutions holding much further into the leadup than normal. I think I favor the extreme this time ie benchmark plus/minus 30 or the inland runner. That said the euro is still smoking all others at this range at 5h. It's near the bm but its way warmer than a normal bm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Could this turn in to an ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this run of the euro looks like one of those rare storms...happens every once in a while...where someplace inland is predominantly sleet from almost start to finish. surface definitely stays cold over the interior but there's a lot of low and mid-level warming. just one run so who knows but it's interesting. i'm also curious about the magically disappearing vortmax the gfs is now showing. Probably Kevin's BY, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Way more complicated than that. I have legit concerns about what happened at 06z and the 09z SREF. Something new was seen on those suites. Even on the amped up solutions that give a lot of precip, there is plenty of mid-level warmth to be concerned about. Euro gave you a ton of sleet. Both ch 7 and 5 have it changing over to rain in Boston. Cited the big difference in this storm over the last few is the high sliding out to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it's amazing that you seem to feel the NWS (box) is some how clueless. You sound like the people that say "The weathermen never get it right." I've relied on the NWS BOX/ALB for the day to day operations of my business for decades and i can tell you they do a fantastic job. They would be derelict in their duties if they forecast based on seasonal trends or gut feeling. If they reflect some doubt as to what will transpire it's because there IS doubt as to what this storm portends. That said, I do feel this storm will land a direct hit at least for the interior but, as WeatherX so kindly pointed out last night, my call is useless.lol I think he must have snuck into his father's liquor cabinet because he told me to "shut up" last night. I remember my first drink. Hopefully, he will react better when he loses his virginity. Regarding the NWS, I wholeheartedly agree. How any amateur can come on here and imply that the local NWS office is clueless is mindboggling to me. I think they do a fantastic job of forecasting and keeping the public informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What are these new concerns that you have? seriously relax dude...this is 95% snow for all of sne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Could this turn in to an ice storm? This is not an ice storm setup, so no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 seriously relax dude...this is 95% snow for all of sne? Yes it is verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Tim Kelly on NECN mentioned a clipper for Tuesday bringing in some warmer air?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 this run of the euro looks like one of those rare storms...happens every once in a while...where someplace inland is predominantly sleet from almost start to finish. surface definitely stays cold over the interior but there's a lot of low and mid-level warming. just one run so who knows but it's interesting. i'm also curious about the magically disappearing vortmax the gfs is now showing. i was getting at this last night when the NAM came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it's interesting how this has turned from a Tue-Wed storm to a Wed nt-Thu storm? I believe the ec had the main event starting early afternoon Wednesday, not sure about the other models. All I know is the other thread was talking about the 00z euro being all snow with only brief sleet and a major snow event west of 495 and now this thread is talking about major taint issues on the 00z euro, so Im a little lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM brings some light snows for portions of the area Tuesday. Could be a couple inches for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can't fathom snowNH trying to forecast a storm. It would be: 1. Euro shows a huge hit: "2-3 feet of snow, blizzard warnings!!!!" 12 hours later: Euro shows it out to sea: "OMG no snow...don't worry about shoveling folks, this one is out to sea!!!" Lol, I like his enthusiasm and interest but I find the bashing of the NWS distasteful at best. Typically,when I hear people do it, I immediately make the assessment that they know nothing about meteorology. Been a great storm tracking season, looks to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 this run of the euro looks like one of those rare storms...happens every once in a while...where someplace inland is predominantly sleet from almost start to finish. surface definitely stays cold over the interior but there's a lot of low and mid-level warming. just one run so who knows but it's interesting. i'm also curious about the magically disappearing vortmax the gfs is now showing. That was 2/14/07 for us. Four or five inches of wall-to-wall sleet. It was incredibly hard to clear the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I believe the ec had the main event starting early afternoon Wednesday, not sure about the other models. All I know is the other thread was talking about the 00z euro being all snow with only brief sleet and a major snow event west of 495 and now this thread is talking about major taint issues on the 00z euro, so Im a little lost. Nothing has changed, Ride the EURO on this one. As the EURO goes this storm goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes it is verbatim i think the proeess of removing the weenie goggles is gonna be especially painful. should we ask will if the 0z ecwmf is 95% snow for SNE? and i'm just playin here...but this is not a lock and load snow storm for sne verbatim or otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Will never repsonded about what his new concerns were regarding the 6z DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I believe the ec had the main event starting early afternoon Wednesday, not sure about the other models. All I know is the other thread was talking about the 00z euro being all snow with only brief sleet and a major snow event west of 495 and now this thread is talking about major taint issues on the 00z euro, so Im a little lost. Yeah, I am too haha. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think the proeess of removing the weenie goggles is gonna be especially painful. should we ask will if the 0z ecwmf is 95% snow for SNE? and i'm just playin here...but this is not a lock and load snow storm for sne verbatim or otherwise. LAst nite they were all saying it was mostly snow except for a few hour period..now this morning the tune has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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