ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I believe the ec had the main event starting early afternoon Wednesday, not sure about the other models. All I know is the other thread was talking about the 00z euro being all snow with only brief sleet and a major snow event west of 495 and now this thread is talking about major taint issues on the 00z euro, so Im a little lost. Its a lot of snow N and W of 495 on the euro but there is def some sleet that gets in there...S of the pike near Kevin its a paint peeler for quite a bit of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Both ch 7 and 5 have it changing over to rain in Boston. Cited the big difference in this storm over the last few is the high sliding out to the East. Part of that reason is true but on local TV news when you have 7 minutes to do a weather segment you can't go through all the reasoning. Local TV Weather with all due respect is for the lowest common denominator who has ADD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Will never repsonded about what his new concerns were regarding the 6z DGEX There have been some phasing issues showing up on the 06z runs...and also the 09z SREF. We'll see if they warrant concern or not at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Its a lot of snow N and W of 495 on the euro but there is def some sleet that gets in there...S of the pike near Kevin its a paint peeler for quite a bit of the storm. Thanks. I would take that solution right now if I could. The 12z runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Its a lot of snow N and W of 495 on the euro but there is def some sleet that gets in there...S of the pike near Kevin its a paint peeler for quite a bit of the storm. will ... as far as "wiggle room" goes with this system regarding a more snow solution a tad further S or SE do you think there is much (room) ....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 will ... as far as "wiggle room" goes with this system regarding a more snow solution a tad further S or SE do you think there is much (room) ....and are you having moderate confidence in the way the evoluton of the storm transpires....(track) (no phase) at this point? I have very little confidence in ptype for this storm. I do think interior will be frozen, but whether that is more sleet/ZR or mostly snow....I have no idea. Closer to the coast its even more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LAst nite they were all saying it was mostly snow except for a few hour period..now this morning the tune has changed depends on where you live. some of the region the euro was a snowbomb. i was just commenting that if you weighted this thread to the population, i don't think a lot of folks would jump for joy with what the euro was showing at face value. it's just one run though. by no means am i saying this is not a good storm for a good chunk of the area. i just think this go around we are threading a needle more so than the past few events and it is too early to "la-la-lock it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spit Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think he must have snuck into his father's liquor cabinet because he told me to "shut up" last night. I remember my first drink. Hopefully, he will react better when he loses his virginity. Regarding the NWS, I wholeheartedly agree. How any amateur can come on here and imply that the local NWS office is clueless is mindboggling to me. I think they do a fantastic job of forecasting and keeping the public informed. This to me, is the most interesting timeframe - it's comming but exactly where by a few hundred miles / models being manic with bias, / people try to predict the future -truly awesome/ I It's been a wild ride &,,the trend says no stopping! I think some here might be starting to suffer,,, modelitis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z NAM looks like a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z NAM looks like a scraper. i think that would tuck in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Strange how we can go from the coldest air mass in 6 years (TWC's words) and get a B/M track Nor'Easter that brings sleet all the way back to the Connecticut Hills. Gotta love La Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's not much better to forecast a chance of snow showers right up until it's obvious there's a storm vs. calling for snow and sticking to it when there's a strong signal. I'm not trying to disprespect the NWS, but I am disappointed with several of their over-conservative forecasts over the past month or so imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z NAM looks like a scraper. I think it would get a lot of people with significant snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I like the 12z NAM at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think that would tuck in. You think it turns the corner a bit? Ok. It looks better than the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I have very little confidence in ptype for this storm. I do think interior will be frozen, but whether that is more sleet/ZR or mostly snow....I have no idea. Closer to the coast its even more difficult. Do you think whether it is mid-level warmth or surface it would be a more straight up coastal/interior or east/west divide to it as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 12z NAM seems slower then the 00z ec. Seems like the main event wouldn't start until at least Wednesday evening if the NAM was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has really slowed this down now. We're looking at Thursday and precip hasn't even broken out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro was a snowbomb here, 1.25"-1.50" all snow........ Wow, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 depends on where you live. some of the region the euro was a snowbomb. i was just commenting that if you weighted this thread to the population, i don't think a lot of folks would jump for joy with what the euro was showing at face value. it's just one run though. by no means am i saying this is not a good storm for a good chunk of the area. i just think this go around we are threading a needle more so than the past few events and it is too early to "la-la-lock it" Yeah by no means am I locking this one yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has really slowed this down now. We're looking at Thursday and precip hasn't even broken out yet. yeah. if it goes any slower the northern stream is gonna boot it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has really slowed this down now. We're looking at Thursday and precip hasn't even broken out yet. it seems like wednesday at least day light could be a quiet day. verbatim 12z nam it looks like precip starts to overspread the area around 9pm wed (2z thrus) i do like the HP situation better by 18z wednesday .....more so than if the storm was still earlier (18z tues.....has it close by to our SE....) by 18z late wednesday .....it is at least to our ENE...with a new one pushing in from superior. (and the old Hp way way east of us sort of not effecting things any more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has really slowed this down now. We're looking at Thursday and precip hasn't even broken out yet. Yeah that's not good, we keep pushing it back it feels like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 yeah. if it goes any slower the northern stream is gonna boot it. Very delicate balance. In some respect this would help us but could also hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I have very little confidence in ptype for this storm. I do think interior will be frozen, but whether that is more sleet/ZR or mostly snow....I have no idea. Closer to the coast its even more difficult. I can't remember a storm that tracked just inside 40/70 and brought sleet so far nw. My guess is that there would be a sneaky warm layer above 850, but the euro verbatim probably would not bring it that far nw as depicted. It does have a very warm source region, so that is something to consider. That would be a flesh remover for inland RI and SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has really slowed this down now. We're looking at Thursday and precip hasn't even broken out yet. I feel like guidance in general has slowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think we're seeing the usual NAM slow bias in effect here. It's still a wednesday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Boy the SREFs get the old boot leg from the trough digging in from the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I feel like guidance in general has slowed. The good news is that it appears to allow some fresh cold to be tapped in the form of the new HP that will be parked in a favorable spot to drain ageo winds. Max mentions La Nina winters....and for the Cape it has been disappointing. But most of us in the Boston area down through CT are so far above normal snow wise it's amazing. That doesn't happen all that often in La Nina years. If BOS gets only normal from here on out, we finish with 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think we're seeing the usual NAM slow bias in effect here. It's still a wednesday storm No, everything has slowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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