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I am in total HEAVEN. Imagine if you can, a storm far worse, than Katrina. Or Andrew. And Miami is in the Right. Front. Quadrant. Of a 3 mph forward moving hypercane. Oh the humanity. The A1A a massive parking lot, millions of people frantically trying to move upstate all at once! As the storm lumbers slowly northwestward, clouds growing darker, the torrential rains being driven by a banshee, utterly insane insistent east wind, bashing stuff. Terrified people running, walking, desperate to get as far north as possible, scenes utterly reminiscent of people in NYC trying to run from the WTC dust cloud on Sept 11, 2001. Or people trying to escape from Saigon on April 29, 1975! And top-tier chasers like Josh Morgerman and Reed Timmer, getting the storm coverage of their lives! The airport would be a total nightmare, thousands of desperate scared to death people trying to get a flight anywhere away from Miami! People storming the airline counters, even storming their way onto planes! Planes somehow managing to take off in the wild hellish maelstrom, getting blown about, end over end, people inside getting all blended up as the incredible hypercanic winds toss big 787's around like so much straw, smashing the planes around, savaging them right into mangled Miami skyscrapers, smashing planes into each other, in the air and on the runways! Local police overwhelmed, just total bedlam, pandemonium. It would for all intents and purposes, be hell on earth. Everywhere in South Florida. Fear unimaginable. As a terrifying unprecedented hurricane with monster 270 mph winds, gusts to 340, unbelievable 55 foot storm surges and tsunami like waves on top of the surge, slowly buzzsawing South Florida into unprecedented oblivion, leaving the entire region uninhabitable for years. Much of south Florida left to rot in the broiling humid heat for decades as Florida takes on about 7 trillion in losses. Much of the central and south part of the Devastation State completely leveled with rotting trash heaps so high, no utilities into the 22nd Century. Investment departs from Florida for at least the next 85 years. Much of what was once known as Miami is ocean, many of the former Florida Keys are ocean. The entire coastline of Florida is completely, utterly, horrifically altered forever! Millions of people fleeing the state, heading for places like Austin Texas because of the damned job market, turning my immediate neighborhood into Bangladesh. Millions upon millions of people moving to Texas because of the horrific leveling of much of central and south Florida by Hurricane Hell. Mercy was no more in Florida as Hurricane Hell moved at 1 to 3 mph, taking days and days to move up the entire east coast of Hellida, savaging the once beautiful state. The economy was destroyed. The storm lost no strength at all as it moved agonizingly slow all the way up Florida's east coast, leveling everything at least midway east to west in the state. At times, Hurricane Hell wobbled in place, buzzsawing the fook out of Florida. The loss of life was unprecedented. There was no mercy whatsoever and G-d took a holiday in the Med throughout the storm. Frantic, terrified ppl were casually overtaken by the devilish storm, by unbelievable roaring winds that drove people deaf and utterly insane, by tides similar to those found in the Bay of Fundy, by huge battering waves that smashed people into buildings, drove cars and trees and debris right into fleeing persons who only wanted to get north. The 340mph gusts of Hurricane Hell overloaded skyscrapers in numerous Florida metropolises, wreaking scenes of devastation that vividly reminded terrified people of 9-11! Entire buildings smashed down, then were hurled about by titanic winds, waves and Bay of Fundy tides! The storm surge was so bad it reminded people of Banda Aceh. But the storm showed or gave no quarter whatsoever. Black, terrifying clouds sped along, driven by tornadic intensity wind speeds! It kept right on moving real slow, about 1 mile per hour, into Georgia, destroying much of that state as well, bringing incredible winds into north Georgia and the western Carolinas, along with many feet of rainfall. What the storm winds and numerous tornadoes didnt finish off, unprecedented freshwater flooding did finish off. Georgia, the Carolinas, even Virginia were devastated by intense tornadoes and biblical rains.

Wait what, Josh has 27-54”?

And a fiery shiny new base state, monster Hadley Cells and a fooked up MJO, alongside very warm sea surface temps! I am really stoked for some decent Category 6 tropical cyclone action this fall! This could be the fall Miami gets on the proverbial chopping block, with a slow moving superheated high end Cat 5 with 245mph sustained winds in the eyewall, sporting a truly monster 40 foot storm surge coming at MIA like Jaws 18 from the SSE at 1 mph, buzzsawing hell out of Miami with millions stuck on the A1A. You know Reed Timmer and Josh Morgerman of iCyclone are both gonnabe tryin to cover that extraordinary extravaganza of a megastorm!

The problem is your expectation for Clinton Twp MI are not correctly aligned with reality. You are looking for an event that would be a historic/record breaking event. Then you say because this record breaking event doesn't happen this winter sucks or that wasn't a real storm!! It has nothing to do with contentment. You can buy either Bud Light or Sam Adams at a store anywhere in the USA. Weather can't be bought and every location has specific weather patterns. If you are not going to move, you need to accept where you are and enjoy what you do get. Otherwise you are always going to basically hate the weather!!! EDIT: I know this is the B&M thread. B&M away, though I will defend Josh! You can ask Harry and Josh and some others on here. Years ago I sounded similar. I am just offering some friendly advice that has truly helped me. Not saying that I don't occasional get frustrated with the weather and will do some B&M; however; I do enjoy the weather a TON more now and I even get excited for the Chicago group (or any other poster) when they are getting blasted and I am not.

Josh, whats the record for most consecutive days in february above 50 in detroit? I'd ask 45 but I'd imagine its harder to get stats that way. Obviously warm spells can happen in winter here and it seems most of the time lately they've happened in January. February's have been rocking around here winter wise in recent years and just curious. Looks like atleast 4 in a row starting Sunday. Thanks. Also looks like there's potentially 8+ days straight of atleast 50 starting next weekend as we head in march. Atleast 10 degrees above avg for early march (40°).

Oh shit. I left out the important part. I'm a time traveler from the year 2047. I was sent by the Greater San Angeles Police Department to Philadelphia in the year 2032 to collect specific artifacts related to a criminal organization headed up by the former Simon Phoenix. During my time in 2032 Philadelphia, the lovechild of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift, a 90-foot tall behemoth weighing-in at 7 metric tonne, smashed the I-95 highway bridge while running to film an episode of New Heights podcast with Uncle Jason. Newly reelected president Josh Shapiro, having rebuilt that same bridge some years back as governor of PA, handed the blueprint for the original rebuild over to PA governor Matthew McGloin. Having had the shits of time travel, missing my family, and living a lie, I was on my way to commit suicide by throwing myself off the bridge on the day Kool Aid Kelce showed up, and the disappointment of my failed attempt to unalive myself only renewed my desire to carry on the mission. So yeah. It was fast. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

Again wanting a big dog isn't unrealistic expectations. I don't expect them every year. It's like you, Josh, or anyone saying we can get good (6+) snowstorms in march. Sure it can happen but unlikely, especially this winter.

Sour? What do I have to be sour about other than our lack of big dogs, which nothing you or Josh have stated proves me wrong. We do get some of our biggest snows in march but I'm ready for warmth once march rolls in.

All smartassness aside, the point is the lakes overall werent the reason for the big dog totals for that event, even into most of illinois. I don't know why you and Josh keep pushing back on this topic. For reasons already stated, this area outside of the snow belts is missing that big dog, end of discussion. It didn't bother me as much in recent years because ive been a snowbird and havent been around much. I happen to be here this winter, since November to take care of my dad who passed last month. I've whined about big dogs enough and that will be all on that topic from me.

One of these days I'll get Josh to admit chicago owns us in big dogs. He doesn't seem to weakening his turd polishing shield anytime soon but I will keep chipping away. It's all in good fun and glad we could entertain you in the slightest. I'm sure it's annoying to some but there ain't nothing else going on of any weather significance. People think I dont enjoy the smaller events and that's false. Just getting slightly annoyed we can't get over the hump here. I don't think expecting a big dog every 40 years is unrealistic. I don't expect one every winter and totally understand it's not our regular climo. But seeing almost everyone around us get one in my lifetime doesn't help.

My post wasn't directed at you. The banter between you and Josh goes way back. I find it mildly entertaining. It's the bitching and moaning and having unrealistic expectations for local climo that's annoying, even tho I will admit for parts of the sub, the past few winters have been horrible and I'd likely be the first to complain. As far as the UP goes, as a kid I dreamed of living here and as soon as I could I did. It's different and not for everyone, and minus the snow I'd still live here. I'll probably die here unless at some point I decide to head west or to Alaska. Mainstream America is NOT for me.

Yeah I can never live in the u.p. away from my friends and g/f. Also ,the whole point is getting the big dog in your backyard and moving to have to see it ruins most of the satisfaction. Also this whining and calling out josh is filling in the boring stretch of weather we currently are in.

Not sure I follow. Turd polishing and liking winter are not the same. In fact, they're complete opposites. I don't get tired of you liking winter, but you're turd polishing because your standards for winter are very low...which causes you to be happy about very basic/minimum things in winter that shouldn't require much effort. As an example - if we have a good 5-15 day period in winter, that's not a big deal. Winter is 90 days, so why would anyone be happy that 5-15 of those days feature consistent winter? I would be unhappy if 50 days did...so only 5-15 days is horrible. That's what I mean by turd polishing. If one likes winter, one should have very high standards. How can anyone who loves winter be happy with any winter season since 2014-15? I don't care about comparisons to climo or actual seasonal snowfall totals; there are certain minimum standards that need to be met. "Tenor of the winter" metrics are the most meaningful...such as SDDs, # of days with frozen lakes, # of wintry days (defined as a day with high temps in the 20s or colder AND 2"+ snow depth), etc. If we get a 10" snowfall that melts within a week, we shouldn't be happy just because our paltry climo monthly average snowfall is met. That isn't winter, because there are 20 other days in the month that need to be mostly wintry-feeling too. A climo winter around here is bad enough. So, by default, 60-80% of our winters here are horrible for winter lovers. What's a huge slap in the face about the current winter is that places which should be totally immune from this crap are seeing a bad winter...and that's the last straw. I get furious enough when we don't have 2 consecutive months of snow cover here at 42.1N...so it's 100x worse when places at 45-49N are dealing with the same thing. Nothing is sacred anymore. Will we ever get to experience a DJF all 3 of these very important "tenor of the winter" things are true, at least 80-90% of the time? Even I have reasonable standards, since I didn't say 100%. (1) You wake up and look outside, and it always looks like winter (snow cover) (2) You walk outside, and it always feels like winter (temps) (3) You don't have to worry about the snow melting (stability) We can barely get (1) or (2) for any more than a week these days, so there's no chance to ever imagine (3). But (3) is the most important thing for a winter lover. Many people on the forum nowadays seem to think that people should be happy with winter simply because it's colder than summer. Hooray, I guess?? If there are 3 months of summer, there should be 3 months of winter. Endless days of dry weather with temps in the 30s and 40s is not winter. Do we ever have endless non-summer days in July/August? No - when I wake up on August 1st, I don't have to worry about whether it will feel like summer. I don't know what's worse about this winter - the actual weather, or the fact that people aren't completely furious and throwing things against the wall in frustration. People on the forum seem to be taking this in stride, which is ridiculous. I want to see more complaining, not less...because it shows that people actually care. Everyone is participating in turd polishing this winter, not just Josh. Bing Crosby didn't say "I'm...dreaming...of a White...Christmas (but only if all of the indices align perfectly, and it's not too early in the season for lake warmth, and then the snow will melt right away if it falls later in the season, and we should be happy with 7 days of winter in a season and we have to hope in coincides with December 25th)." And this can't be blamed on ENSO state. Last year wasn't a strong El Nino, and it was still a horrible winter. Same for most of the last 8 winters. It's always something...do we really need all of the stars to align perfectly just to have winter?? If so, what's the ******* point? People often misunderstand my views. I want to enjoy all 4 seasons -= they just need to each be 3 months!! Not much to ask, but it's like pulling teeth to get anything close to that since 2014-15. It drives you crazy.

It's just something about getting that big dog in your own backyard. I just get tired of josh turd polishing everything, like Detroit is the best place to be in the winter. Chicago is 10:4 over us in storms 12+ in recent years which backs up my original point. He doesn't get tired of all the mediocre events which is fine. I get it, its not in our climo to get big storms, but the point is its possible and we don't. He just can't admit that we suck at big dogs and Chicago is just in a better location. Instead he just focuses on our mediocre 4-10 events and how we own Chicago in that department. That's like the lions beating the bears in the regular season, then losing to them in the playoffs.

whose gonna break it to Josh that Detroit is the new CMH

Different strokes. Josh always keeps his expectations low which is smart if you're a big dog fan in metro detroit. I've learned we can't do anything about it so it's useless to get all bent outta shape when we have a winter like this current one. Ya got 3 months and to expect to cash in a legit storm more than once or twice is unrealistic expectations.

Time for the magic. Need you to breakout that ole Josh snow magnet for Monday's system

Looks like Josh is using xmACIS with a small adjustment to 1881-1882. NWS Detroit amounts are similar, but a little higher for some of the early years. I'd probably assume the local NWS numbers are more accurate. I believe a lot of this data is retrieved through automated means and it sometimes makes mistakes - especially with snow. I noticed similar discrepancies in the Pittsburgh records, and when I compared to the actual records (where available - some of the earliest years aren't available), the local NWS numbers were correct, not xmACIS.

It's even worse than Toledo, which Josh always likes to pretend gets completely different weather patterns. Note that the 5th lowest at Toledo is 16.0" versus 15.4" for Detroit. 10th lowest is 18.4" versus 18.0" for Detroit.

Josh is on the grids today and I'm the afternoon winter shift, so I'll shoot him a message

La Niña is gonna have guys like Josh Morgerman and Reed Timmer taking short trips this summer and fall

Going to slow down Josh Allen and swing the tide in our favor. And no, I don't really believe that...but I believe it a little more than snow maps.

Up to -3 at some sports books now. O/U 44.5... Pitt +10 is something to look at. Josh will get picked and the Bills are due for a dud winning the last 5 after starting 6-6.

The tropics of IND just missed setting a futility record for the latest measurable snowfall. The record was set on January 4, 1941. They received their first measurable snow yesterday (12/31) with a whopping 0.1"!! Maybe Josh and other snow measurers can chime in, but I think it is almost impossible to record 0.1" of snow. I've been measuring for 20 years and have recorded it twice. It is usually a trace as the ground doesn't get completely covered or the flakes are fluffy enough to record 0.2". It's hard to get flake size that allows for a 0.1" measurement. All of that being said to comment that they got robbed as bad as the Lions!

Lock it in Josh! [emoji2956]