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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    still think that the 19-20th is the best crack at something bigger. everything is there synoptically, you just need a strong impulse, which remains to be seen. but you have the decaying block, Rockies ridge, confluence, and amplifying OH Valley trough. hopefully modeling picks up on it a bit more in the coming days, but EPS and GEPS are sniffing it out
  2. brooklynwx99
    personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV
  3. brooklynwx99
    yeah, you aren't very warm with the Pacific like that. would last for a week, at most
  4. brooklynwx99
    i think it’s a really good pattern and people are a bit gun shy. if this pattern popped up in the medium range in 2014 everyone would be disrobing
  5. brooklynwx99
    it’s more so that if a wave does get picked up (which is certainly the case), it will have a top tier synoptic pattern to work with
  6. brooklynwx99
    50/50 ULL with decaying block shows up afterwards. just need a strong wave
  7. brooklynwx99
    here's the big dog window... decaying block, 50/50, and +PNA. just need a potent wave to amplify in the flow
  8. brooklynwx99
    50/50 ULLs usually form in mature patterns as the block is decaying. this is why I think the 19-20th has greater potential, not to diminish this threat
  9. brooklynwx99
    50/50 looks awesome. this should be a good run
  10. brooklynwx99
    anyway, the GEFS and GEPS both look very good at some point for the 19-20th they all have the major synoptic features in place for a larger storm
  11. brooklynwx99
    it's because the waves phase into the weakness underneath the EPO block. it's centered too far north and heights are able to continue to crash. it makes sense meteorologically
  12. brooklynwx99
    GEFS has a very nice pattern too
  13. brooklynwx99
    idk man it's not really worth worrying about at that range. just seems like an OP run doing a bad job handling a retrograding Rossby wave
  14. brooklynwx99
    I still feel like the bigger threat may end up being the 20th as the blocking decays, but the 17th is certainly worth watching
  15. brooklynwx99
    overall synoptic setup is very favorable on the 20th as the block decays and the TPV vacates towards the 50/50 region. wouldn't be surprised to see models pick up on something here
  16. brooklynwx99
    i know it’s out there, but the 20th really seems like the time for something bigger after the potential event on the 17th. can see the GFS tank heights over the N Atl as the block decays. it fits the general KU progression (just a progression, not guaranteeing anything)
  17. brooklynwx99
    i’m not in denial. you’re kidding yourself if you think the polar domain in the same as those years. that was my point… it’s not a canonical 500mb pattern. not sure why there’s can’t be any nuance in these discussions
  18. brooklynwx99
    also has a favorable setup similar to the other ensembles as the blocking decays. southern stream wave slips under the PNA ridge with a 50/50 in place
  19. brooklynwx99
    EPS is way more favorable than the OP with lower heights in SE Canada
  20. brooklynwx99
    nice pattern evolution here as the blocking decays and the TPV moves into the 50/50 region. GEFS and GEPS both try to amplify a wave in its wake
  21. brooklynwx99
    want to wait a couple of days here, but if the amplification is real as the TPV moves into that spot and the block decays, might be honk time. lmao
  22. brooklynwx99
    can see energy working in from the south, too
  23. brooklynwx99
    this is much better in the Atlantic afterwards. just need a wave to slip underneath
  24. brooklynwx99
    then, the MJO moves into the central Pacific and the Aleutian Low develops
  25. brooklynwx99
    i think it’s the Niña background state
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