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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    GFS is caving to ECMWF and adopting the idea of a trailing wave... this allows for a much favorable height configuration downstream, establishing confluence sooner and encouraging a colder, farther south storm that will be able to amplify without warming as quickly the GFS and ECMWF are actually quite similar at this point
  2. brooklynwx99
    GFS and ECMWF are actually really similar at this point, for this range. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed... shocker
  3. brooklynwx99
    yup, that confluence is the game changer
  4. brooklynwx99
    GFS is caving to ECMWF and adopting the idea of a trailing wave... this allows for a much favorable height configuration downstream, establishing confluence sooner and encouraging a colder, farther south storm that will be able to amplify without warming as quickly
  5. brooklynwx99
    the nice part is that even if we don't get anything over the next 10-15 days, which is possible, this is what we're likely walking into... sign me up
  6. brooklynwx99
    it's rather transient, though... by the time you get into that pattern, the Aleutian low is already taking shape and will raise heights over the WC and AK. the transition happens quickly on the weeklies, and this favorable Aleutian Low pattern remains through February as HL blocking reloads so, yes, we will relax, but it won't be for very long. tropical forcing is flying through the unfavorable phases on all ensembles
  7. brooklynwx99
    i agree there. it's also possible that the trough buckles enough to make the whole point moot. but yes, there is certainly the potential for more southern stream influence between now and the next 10 days
  8. brooklynwx99
    this month will look nothing like those years on the mean:
  9. brooklynwx99
    @40/70 Benchmark this canonical enough for you? nothing says EP super Nino like a huge west-based -NAO and arctic outbreak in mid-January lmao
  10. brooklynwx99
    no changes
  11. brooklynwx99
    just to be clear, I am not advertising a KU at 10 days out lmao. want to make that very clear however, it's becoming evident that the pattern progression holds high end potential as it breaks down. this is often the case, and it holds historical precedent
  12. brooklynwx99
    i do want to stress that caution needs to be exercised, but it's worth noting that the advertised pattern evolution on the EPS is reminiscent of some of NYC's largest storms. this isn't to say that we're going to get one or anything like that... just trying to show the potential that these west-based blocking patterns do have when timed up with a PNA spike out west and established Arctic air the similarities are uncanny
  13. brooklynwx99
    there is no way in hell that ensemble modeling will pick such a feature out at 10 days
  14. brooklynwx99
    there are hints that there could be a vort traversing the southern US. I think this would be northern stream driven overall, but that can absolutely change. better to focus on the overall pattern right now, which is about as good as can be
  15. brooklynwx99
    wow at the EPS for the 19-20th
  16. brooklynwx99
    stronger PV lobe into the 50/50 region makes all the difference
  17. brooklynwx99
    i don't like using those composites at this range, but i saw how similar it was and just had to mention it seriously though, the synoptics are ripe for a big one around that time, just gotta put it together
  18. brooklynwx99
    since you asked. it's honestly uncanny how similar the OP is to some huge storms of the past. love the evolution now, just want to keep the signal on ENS
  19. brooklynwx99
    the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest
  20. brooklynwx99
    the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass huge 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream this period has been showing up on ensembles and now OP runs are beginning to sniff it out. large storms often follow decaying WB -NAOs, so this is definitely a period of high interest
  21. brooklynwx99
    jesus christ. the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass huge 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream
  22. brooklynwx99
    we still have 20 days in the month left, and you guys can certainly get hit by something in the meantime. but just for the sake of argument, here are a few months where BWI got a trace or an inch of snowfall... for the whole month. surprising, no? and these were all like 30-40 years ago, too. sometimes you just get screwed. I know everyone wants to have a reason for why everything happens, but it's as simple as that sometimes. Feb 1977 is especially lol-worthy lmao
  23. brooklynwx99
    what do you think the answer to that question is going to be
  24. brooklynwx99
    I'm sure ski resorts felt the same way in 2013-15
  25. brooklynwx99
    i think people definitely underestimate luck and the little minutiae that go into every storm. NYC south needs luck to snow more than like 1-3". it's a significant component given that so much can go wrong. we seem to have run out for the last year and change, but it will be back
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