MillvilleWx

Looking back at temperatures this month, I think this might be the best August this area has seen in terms of thwarting hot/humid conditions since the summer of 2014. Lows in the area will remain near to below normal for the next 10-14 days leading to some spectacular starts to the days ahead. Will gladly accept after what was a MISERABLE late-June and July.

I can't believe they are allowing me to view this porn at work....

I think @WxUSAF hit the nail on the head. These bigger storms need general phasing pieces to really allow for a significant mid-latitude cyclone and we haven't seen too many due to the fast flow from the N/S and more chaotic nature of faster low amplitude waves. By the time they rendezvous, it's usually too far north in latitude to matter for these parts. We value blocking as that slows down the wave train and allows for greater amplitude in trough patterns as they migrate east of the Rockies. We've been on the outside looking in for years now, but hopefully some signs of the AMO shifting could bring back more periods of blocking across the North Atlantic. Until then, it's going to be tough to generate significant east coast storms at a higher frequency. Those that can develop could still be very strong, however so something to keep in mind when we do have signals for a major mid-latitude cyclone.

The Orioles went an impressive 0/14 with RISP tonight. I am genuinely impressed with that kind of futility. In other news, Ravens looked pretty good with the back ups tonight. Ran 79 plays to Dallas 49. Pretty much dominated for 98% of that contest. Come on September!

Been a minute since I posted, but had an incredible 2+ week vacation across multiple states. I spent probably 50% of the time outside and near/in some body of water or pool. It was probably one of the best vacations I've ever had in my 35 years. It's time to finish the warm season grind and get into the cool season. My body is ready.....seriously, it's very ready. I am sick of the heat and humidity. Bring on cool crisp nights, bonfires, football, and dead mosquitos.

Really sad to hear about the passing of your dad, John. JBurns was a name I can remember seeing plenty of in my time on the forum. He was very well spoken and a knowledgeable read. He had a profound impact on many in here through his time as a moderator and dear friend. His legacy will live on forever. My condolences to you and your family. He will be missed dearly

I am one night shift tonight away from a 16 day vacation. My body is ready Currently 86/67 with blue skies. Beautiful

Can't complain one bit about this airmass. Dew points actually dropped below 70 for the first time in weeks at my place. The morning's drive home from work will be glorious. Sunroof open kind of nice. Currently 85/65 at the office and 82/71 at mi casa

Thank for the Bday wishes (As well as you @Maestrobjwa!! Enjoy Vermont and the amazing period of nice weather in those parts. Those cooler mornings will be bliss. Take it all in!

Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined hole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man.

Area of greatest concern will be between Winchester down to Staunton, preferably I-66 to I-64. Strong consensus in the CAMs on that area being the focal point. I wouldn't rule out areas into WV being targeted as well with the ML depicting a relatively solid signal for a QPF maxima along I-79 and the interior. This is a very rich moisture environment with the KIAD sounding topping 2.37", putting it at the all-time daily max to date and in the 99th percentile for the week encompassing 7/14-21. Someone is going to get nailed pretty good today with heavy rains and flash flood prospects.

Drove from Reston back to Edgewater earlier. The lightning show the entire drive was surreal. It’s been awhile since I’ve seen lightning like this around here. The spider-effect on the C2C lightning was a thing of beauty. The CG strikes went nuts once I got on Rt50 off of 495. Incredible show with some close strikes across eastern AA Co. This has been an energetic summer thanks to all the humidity and deep moisture layer presence. MUCAPE has been consistently breaching 3000 J/kg along the western shores of the Bay most days with a few days >4000 J/kg. Textbook environments for these convective elements and long lasting lightning shows. Still got a ways to go to get out of this too. Incredible run we are on.

The skeeters are out in full force now and they mean business. Thank goodness for Off spray being sold in 3 packs at Costco. Everytime I know I’m going to be outside longer than 30 seconds, I spray my ankles. That seems to be their favorite spot to get you. I know I’m wishing my summer away, but I’m ready for fall!

Yesterday was absolutely more ripe. I do think they’ve been too liberal with the FF Watches recently, but yesterday needed one and it worked out. I’ve been so busy at work these past few months. Can’t wait for my 2+ week vacation in 9 days. Just a set of 7 night shifts stand in the way of me and freedom

I understand the frustration, but the flood/flash flood watches are to encompass entire counties that are within an area that have favorable conditions for flood prospects. The pattern recently has been less about organized cell clusters and more about more localized convective schema, so these are probably the ones that are extremely annoying to see for those that miss out. I do feel we probably issue too many in these parts (That’s my personal opinion which is just that at the end of the day), but today is actually a day where it is justified. The concern today will be initiation spatially, because if you miss to the west on initiation, you’ll get nothing and areas downstream should get hammered. Hopefully everyone in the sub gets something today. This environment is very ripe for efficient rainfall makers.

Over 2” in under a hour with more to come. Definitely some flooding going to be occurring across parts of the state. We grabbed 1.41” earlier from the lone cell in AA Co. Should crack 2” in total once this batch from the southwest blows through

Yeah. It was a quick hitter around here, but we got smoked. 0.75” in a pretty short time. I’ll take it.

Did a 3 mile walk earlier and I'm pretty certain the sun is actively trying to kill us today. Humidity and full sun was abysmal in the Lowlands. UGH

Happy Birthday @mappy!! Hopefully it was a great day with family and friends

Amazing day after the run of heat. Got in a long walk and it was stellar. Nice little break before summer comes back in for the weekend and beyond. High only hit 76 today, good for only a 9 degree diurnal!! Rain hit us last night, but we somehow missed the heavier rain as it developed all around us and then weakened as it moved through and out. 0.3” in total. I’ll take it since it came with a nice cool down.

High or 99 briefly in the neighborhood before the storm/outflow hit. Down to 80° now and feels so much better even with the humidity.

It officially hit 100° in my neighborhood this afternoon. At one point it was 99/80 for a HI of 121° I’m not even going for my walk today. Just gonna stay inside and do laundry. Slept great after night 6/8.

Truly disgusting and we still have tomorrow!

Yup! The additional higher dew points has made this feel worse than at any point last year. I mentioned a week or so ago about the higher ground moisture content may curb the air temps a bit, but the humidity will be a bigger problem in the grand scheme. Sweltry is the word for this kind of heat.

Yup! We see the ridging get beat down from disturbances in the northern stream and the flow becomes more amplified after Monday. At least the heat will take a beating, but it'll still be summer!