MillvilleWx

The sad reality is, it's been a lot of bad luck for some and a lot of fortunate luck for others. This isn't a case where everyone has been skunked. Your area has been getting shafted while my parents down in Rehoboth has gotten hit multiple times, flush this summer. It's been a tough pill to swallow for many. Baltimore proper, especially east Baltimore has gotten trucked several times while the west side gets shafted. It's why I hate convective season around here. Need a synoptic scale gully washer to get everyone involved with good rain and some boomers.

Same song and dance. And guess what? The hitting didn't show up again. It's pretty simple to see why this team will go nowhere. Some of the more un-clutch players I've seen. For every one time they succeed, they fail another 4. Sigh Where's football season?

Classic. Couldn't hit with RISP again. Two times with bases full or 2-on, no one out....scored zero runs. We will look back on this season and see all the missed opportunities. Cano blowing yesterday was brutal. I would put it as the worst loss of the season.

That's good to hear. What about rain?

Or, Cano could just not suck. He's been hit or miss all season. Yeah the error hurts, but you gotta just move on. Too many head cases on the pitching staff. Baz is another who gets on himself for something he can't control. Tough loss, but team is playing better overall. Just have to keep winning series.

Typically the lag is 2-4 months, so the fall is when we should start seeing a more textbook look for the current Nino in the Northern Hemisphere up to the mid-latitudes. I've been projecting mid to late fall through the winter as the time frame of interest for an increase in precipitation chances with the STJ becoming much more active.

It's going to snow, or it won't, my man

I know the gentleman who created that app. It's fantastic and my go to for a quick forecast and obs check. The Premium version is pretty inexpensive as well, and you get a good amount of extras and customization.

The real housewives of Loudon County are going to be very upset.

If I order a cheeseburger and I bite into a SLICE OF KETCHUP, I am puncturing the owners tires. What in the actual HELL is that abomination?

I think the common theme, no matter the model run, is the prospects of a wetter winter than we've had in a long time. Honestly, that is a welcomed sight. Yes, we will probably have a bunch of very cold rain prospects considering the strength of the Nino and historical precedence. That said, timing a couple solid cold shots during the peak of winter (Jan-Feb) could easily get us a chance to score with some big daddy potential lurking considering the southern stream jet likely much more involved compared to what we see in a Nina. I'm still favoring a wet fall and winter with probably a low-end threat for winter in December, picking up as we move into peak climo. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get skunked in full, so tampering expectations. I'm genuinely excited just to have precipitation returning. I'd rather have precip so we can green things up for next spring and summer and not have the desolate brown we've been accustomed to for much of the past decade.

1.12" from this batch at my place. Rain looks to be ending according to radar with maybe some light stuff lingering. Since June 1st, looking at over 11" of rainfall (11.64") according to local PWS very close to my residence. It's not astronomical by any means, but better than a pure drought.

Sucks that we have to rebuild AGAIN, but the haul we got from the trades were pretty damn good, so I’ll take it…I guess. Elias still needs to be sent to Siberia, but I digress. Maybe we’ll have something to look forward to in the future, then again, we may not even have baseball next season. On to Ravens season which I’m beyond excited for.

Slight risks will likely be the min and I’ll parse through the data to find some of the more notable Slight Risk days across the country. Moderate and High Risks are basically automatic, so those are more low hanging fruit. Appreciate the comment and getting my brain jogging on the next project

I’ll make a note of this and perhaps entertain working on something that’s rainfall centric. I want to generate something that like this for higher profile events in the past for the Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) desk, so perhaps this will be a reason to create a repository of events. We currently do Storm Summaries for winter events only, so maybe we can do something for the more formidable rainfall events. It would take a lot of time because we want the best information possible and strong write ups, so it would be a while, but I’ll certainly look into starting a project. Thanks Matt

Massive ridge over the west pumping moist air off the Baja Peninsula related

Has anyone in the league been worse compared to expectation than Gunnar Henderson? It's got to be he and Cal Raleigh as the most underperforming bats in the game currently. Just abysmal in every single way at this point. Dude is hitting .219 right now and OPS is sub-700. Just awful

Early season snows in this type of Nino are not very common. I'd anticipate a low chance of anything appreciable until January-March. Just a matter of if we can score anything small prior to that.

Elias needs to go and we need new hitting coaches. It really comes down to a bunch of clowns trying to run the show. Instead, they are running players into the ground. Insanely bad hitting this season. No way around it.

Been saying the same thing. I think a ton of it is a mental issue, but it really comes down to the type of person he is too. He gets upset at himself and that just gets in his head. He really should have a sports psychologist to help him because he gets in his own head all the time. On a technical level, he is chasing so many offspeed pitches, it’s insane at this point. He is susceptible to it and the league knows it. He is a huge reason we are underperforming. Can’t make up that kind of talent.

0.50-0.60” at my place. Still raining. Needed this. Happy for those that got the goods today. Still looking for the gully washer we all could use, but it’s a start!

This is an amazing animation JT. Thanks for sharing! Insane how hot the HI got in that two day stretch. Widespread 110+

That's going to hurt, both literally and figuratively. Idk what this team is going to do at the deadline, except I'm sure it'll be something completely stupid. That I'm almost sure of.....

Summer convection is so fickle. The plot of soil moisture anomalies is pretty textbook across the eastern half of the country. Tons of sporadic wet/dry signals within close proximity to each other. Only a few larger areas noteworthy for widespread wet top layer soil conditions. Need a broader synoptic scale disturbance to provide a more widespread convective threat followed by stratiform to get things to be evenly distributed. Could use one of those remnant tropical disturbances that have been lacking in these parts, outside that sweep over from Ida.

Can the Orioles do the unthinkable before the end of the 1H of the season and put up a 4 game winning streak? Stay tuned!