MillvilleWx

Chilling 6 miles east of MBG, between there and Shepardstown! Southern Berkeley county. Good spot imo for this one

NW crew should like trends. Not even looking at Model or Kuchera ratios, QPF is between 0.65 to 1.1 inches prior to flip. Average and NBM put Winchester through Berkeley/Jefferson Counties in WV around 0.75-0.9” of precip with a vast majority falling between 11-18z. Ratios will be very high overnight and slowly fall after 11z, but still easily 13-16:1 throughout most of the event. Unless NAM’s win on thermal progression (they could), I think 7-10” is very plausible at the low end with 10-14” very much in the range if the rates come to fruition.

About 6 miles east of Martinsburg, WV Currently 14.9/-4.0 Let’s rock!!

Yup!

Final Forecast for the Storm Some adjustments were made to reduce snow a touch and increase sleet which is a lower ratio component of the forecast. Still will be a formidable storm with some ice accretion added for good measure. A lot of the snowfall range should be take for a south to north crescendo with higher ranges more likely to the north of the lines presented. Will not be perfect by any stretch, but gives a good proxy. High impact event regardless as cold air behind the storm is very legit and we will struggle to break freezing for several days post storm. Be warm and safe everyone!

They run away with the tupper ware bowls

West of the Bay, even at my location on the water is not getting above freezing. I would be concerned about some light freezing rain or drizzle with this storm if I’m along and east of I-95, and especially eastern AA county.

I’ll say this for the northwest crew, the models are really good out this way with these ratios. 18-20:1 is a good bet for the first 4-6 hrs of the storm before they slowly scale back, but even still, it’s probably 15:1 or better through 15z Sunday. After that, it’ll be a degrading column with the warm nose trying to approach, but flakes will be massive. Clumped aggregates that’ll still amount to 10-12:1 before a flip of any kind.

20/3 at my place currently 11/-7 where I’ll be for the storm This Arctic shot is no joke

I would gladly if it came to it

I don't have a map for Richmond proper, but I do think there will be a lot of sleet and ZR down there. I would guess 2-4" of snow and sleet, but add 0.3-0.75" of freezing rain accretion on top of that. It's not looking good for south-central VA down into the Carolina Piedmont. Stay safe down there!

Yeah, like I told Snowen, I have not paid attention to ZR much, so apologies for not really having an answer on that. I've been focused on the snow and sleet like crazy, so I can't give a great answer. I'll say this, any freezing rain will accrete very very efficiently with these temperatures. I think most here stay in the low to mid-20s MAX. Only east of the Bay and far southern MD will break 26F imo. It's going to be really hard to scour out.

I want to be so wrong, that people look at me and go, "Man, isn't that that guy who was really wrong and sucks at forecasting? Don't even look his way, you might catch the Wrong..."

Honestly, have not been paying attention enough to the ZR portion of the storm, so I don't want to give bad information. I think snow and sleet will be the majority, but I'm really keeping an eye on the NAM Nest and how other hi-res respond tomorrow. The school will likely have generator power, so I would stay. I stayed for the big ice storm at Millersville in 2014 and it was awesome. Incredible pictures came from that one. Just stay safe down there!

First Call Forecast Went with a EC/AIFS/AIGFS blend with a stronger push on the FGEN, front end thump to help with many on Sunday AM, but I am very very wary of the NAM Nest right now, so will revise if necessary tomorrow. For now, I'm sticking with this. I do think banding will be impressive area wide. Just a matter of how thermals behave. Going to be a big day of trend monitoring tomorrow. Also, the lines are imperfect. I wish I had a better program, but utilized Microsoft Designer and it wasn't too bad. Wil work with it.

Internal model snow ratio map is even better than Kuchera. It’s very hefty with the front end thump. Wish it wasn’t at range, but something we’ll be monitoring is the QPF distribution on guidance to the lead up. If they stay juiced, that will be a major plus for snowfall and beating back the mixing line due to evaporative cooling in the layer between 850-700mb.

This is correct. Wildly consistent

Right now I like 8-14” for us, but REALLY need to see the NAM Nest not lead the way with torched thermals. Still a nice front end thump and there will be surprises!

I remember hearing about your area up to Red Lion were like a war zone with the damage on trees and power lines. No bueno.

Feb 2014, night after the Super Bowl ice storm in southern PA and northern MD was my worst. That was crazy. Rain and 21° to start. School was out next day and damage all over the place.

This is a snap shot of what I was talking about with the freezing rain sounding. This was near the beltway in PG county. You definitely don’t want this sounding to come to fruition.

Actually, even worse. It could be freezing rain with temps in the teens for some looking at soundings on pivotal. Good gravy.

It’s close to sleet for a lot of people, but part of it is freezing rain with temps in the low to mid-20s. That would actually be a disaster and we would have more problems than we could ever want.

Lost about 4 inches, but legit everyone lost 4-6” from that run until you got north of I-78 where they gained 4-6”. It was because of the 7H and 85H evolution. Just waaaaay too aggressive for here and the warm nose would catapult its way north. Provided a trend graphic below. It’s been bouncing around like that rubber playground ball we used to use. Still trying to figure itself out, so wouldn’t sweat it. I loved the run up until 18z, then it went agro. The synoptic evolution would cancel that. Surface remains cold af though. It was actually a worse case scenario regarding impact. That would be hell around here and travel would hit an impasse.

I still have 10-12” for the northwest crew using the internal snow ratio calculation the RRFS uses if it’s any consolation. The crazy thing was how far the warm nose blasted in PA. That was wild. Freezing rain all the way past the turnpike