MillvilleWx

Did a live interview with BBC this evening. Love my job and completing interviews!

Right now the snowfall is light to moderate in your area, but watching the banding the east near and north of Goldsboro. If that can make it to the RDU area, you could push 7-8", no question. That stuff is heavy over in that direction. Likely 1-2"/hr stuff. 5" in 4hrs is incredibly impressive. So glad you guys in the RDU area got in on the action after a ridiculous hole in the precip field.

Reports from New Bern are over 10" with some reports closing in on a foot according to MHX. Been chatting with them working at WPC. This is going to rival 1989 and 1965 in your parts. Incredible storm!

And as @Terpeastmentioned, that was late March too. Roll that into February and you would be looking at a wall of white. That is a pretty Northern Hemi setup right there for these parts. Still need some luck in the storm department, but the look is pretty solid for potential.

Sean Payton and Ben Johnson disciple....can't say I hate being under those names. Apparently Ben Johnson said he reminds him of him a lot with his thought process and play-calling. I like hearing that. He's a young mind that hopefully can utilize Lamar and the offensive weapons to their full advantage. We need to have imagination with the play-calling, and hopefully he can kick Faalele to the curb. That's one change that needs to happen immediately.

Forecasted that min too on the QPF and showed up in the snowfall forecast. Feel bad for those in RAH that wanted snow. I would be so mad, no joke, but weather going to weather, whether we like it or not

Thank God. No offense to us up here, but I forecasted that last night. We love verification. Now, let’s try to get a little refresher this coming week and then track big dog potential after the 9th.

Low of 10 literally every morning the last 3, however the high has not been able to break 23° any of those days either. Crazy run of winter here in the lowlands. The ice/snow piles have not budged once here next to the South River, which btw is completely frozen over.

AIFS has done particularly well with verification on the lower end of QPF distribution (<= 0.25") and has a good indication of the coverage within those bounds. It still struggles with higher QPF allotments, especially anything with convective backgrounds. Might get the areal extent of the "where" right, but magnitude is going to struggle. This has been the case for the past few years of evaluations. Totally agree with the SLP and 5H outputs being the areas it does the best with. I have noticed it tends to waver outside the D5 window, which is the case with next weeks system as well, but it will slowly move and hold firm between the D3-5 window before usually settling within the bounds of a solution. Atmospheric complexities are still prevalent within the grand scheme and the AI models will still be subject to variability at leads due to the complex variables at hand. They are a useful tool and one that helps aid in medium and short range forecasting.

Surprisingly, it was pretty damn cold in that run in 2010. 1/29/10 through 2/17/10 was very much below normal with both monster snowstorms in there, and the pre-cursor storm end of January. DCA has a better than -10 departure average for the temps in that time beyond the first storm end of January. For extreme cold, you do have to go back to the 90s for that run. 1994 still takes the cake around here.

Double barrel lows are actually common in these setups and that's something the GFS has been trying to show in its evolution. This setup is very complex and will include these types of variables whenever it materializes.

Omg. Well, I’m glad you are okay but that is scary as all get out. I’ve had a tire piece off a semi jump a retaining wall in TX and smack my windshield and leave a massive rubber mark on the driver side. I’m happy it didn’t smash my windshield though, but that sudden impact is scary as anything.

I’m very happy you showed the Hazards Forecast for the CONUS as it’s a pretty good product for stakeholders to utilize in order to look out for potential weather hazards in the medium range for decision making purposes. However, just to correct, and only doing this because it’s my office that does it, this is a WPC product, not SPC. SPC is a different office that specializes in severe and fire weather with mesoscale discussions for winter weather created as well. Just an FYI, we are different

Looking at my forecast and verification via LSR’s, I think I did a decent job in capturing the event. I wish I stuck with my higher totals I had for the region because those verified. QPF was pretty incredible and helped a ton, even with all the sleet. Overall, not bad. I give myself an A- or B+. I’ll take it. Any feedback is welcome

I start night shifts late this week, so I could very well be in the thick of forecasting this if it comes to fruition. Here’s to another week of tracking

I can tell you we got over 9” for our areas. We went with 9.4” official. It was just hours on end of moderate precip throughout the event. Never got heavy, but never got truly light either. Just steady as could be in reflectivity.

This was one TOUGH storm to forecast. This stuff is not easy. I’m happy with my forecast. Maybe underestimated part of MD, but I’ll gladly accept considering how insane this one was to figure out. Overall, this is an all timer with regards to winter weather for a storm perspective. It’s about to get crazy with the cold following too.

Let’s go!!

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. I am getting those sled dogs ready

That is incredible. What a storm

Correct!

Yeah. It seemed like moderate to MAYBE bordering heavy for a brief time today with precip, but it mainly remained moderate for an extended time. Still a solid storm for out here. So pretty

NAM Nest is truly a solid model for thermals but it SUCKS for QPF. This is a big reason I did my forecast like I did and it seems to be working out, however probably underestimated the total sleet after the snow. These totals post flip are nuts across MD. Went a little too low.

Yup! 6E Martinsburg, WV Back home has got to be nasty. ROUGH back there. Stay warm my man