MillvilleWx

I'm in the camp of Vikings win, but Miami covers the current +12/12.5 number. If Jefferson plays, maybe they have a shot to cover, but without him, Miami could sneaky cover that one. Weirder stuff has happened and the NFL is tough to cover 12+ in game. However, I will say teams that are specifically +13.5 tend to cover more than teams between +10.5 to +13 historically. Don't know why, but definitely a weird trend for betting.

The EC-AIFS has the best verification of the 5H pattern of any model right now. Precipitation coverage is good, but magnitude is too light within convective schemes. It is actually solid with handling more synoptic-based, stratiform-centric precipitation magnitudes. That's one of the reasons WPC uses it a lot in their model blends. It would be a disservice not to. ML guidance is the new wave inside 72 hrs right now, but you really have to utilize a good blend to get the best result for QPF distribution.

I know I'm late to respond to this and I'm not the biggest fan of JLC, but he is dead on with this assessment. Thanks for the share!

Judging by the positioning of the ridge and the expected timing of the front, Friday AM looks like a good time. I would say the best time is Thursday evening, so whatever works best for your schedule. Definitely want to do it before the weekend.

It'll break for the daytime at some point, but you're caught in a nice band of stratus that extends NW to SE out of PA. Judging by guidance, you should see some sun by the late-morning hours, but then clouds look to roll back in again after 6 or so. Areas south of Rt 50 will see more sun today.

So long as the entire month isn't cold, that's solid for winter. Traditionally don't want a very cold October heading into winter, but a nice cold shot to really break into fall would be perfect. I saw that signal too within the means. Hopefully it happens. That'll accelerate the foliage around these parts.

1.67" for the event. Solid soaking. The trees and grass are loving it here in the lowlands. I'm personally loving these temperatures! Slept like a bear the last few nights with the windows half opened.

FYP

We don't have the same coaching staff and more importantly, the same HC. Have to keep the faith. I trust this staff and the weapons we have in Lamar and Henry.

Obviously wasn't as good, but we were still moving the football. We went into a slower paced, methodical play calling setup and the Colts made some adjustments. Still moved the ball and got 10 points in the 4Q. Going to have to be next man up and probably a lot more running the rock. Our next 3 opponents we can do just that. New Orleans is talented, so need the defense to remain vigilant and prevent them from gaining rhythm. Kellen Moore runs a high octane offense, but their defense is a liability. Have to use a lot of 12 and 13 personnel and play some bully ball. Play action will need to be utilized too. I have faith in Doyle. He called a heck of a game today. If we can win games without Zay, that would be massive.

Thought the Ravens did really well for a Game 1 with no preseason work to gel. They had some bad penalties, which is probably my biggest issue overall. They also had some massive holes opened up, so you can see the promise. Considering the circumstance, I'm feeling good for the OL. According to doctors on SM who are solid follows the past few years, Zay injury doesn't sound serious. It was tightness and not a straight pull up lame that usually comes with a strain or tear. Sounds like maybe a game or two, so hopefully that is the reveal tomorrow after MRI's. I have no clue on Lane, so beats me on that one. Sucks to lose a young, promising player like him to something that sounds very fluky. Hopefully he heals up and comes back and makes an impact the second half of the year (If it is broken or moderate/severely sprained). Next man up! Welcome to the NFL. I'm genuinely happy about the defense. With the addition of Matubueke sometime this season, that will be massive for the interior. Colts have a top 3 OL in football, so it doesn't surprise me on their ability to run it. The key was they were pressured a ton in this one and made Jones uncomfortable. I have no doubt Minter will have this team playing lights out as the season moves forward.

I may have to put in my reservations ahead of schedule

We did for Christmas 2015 and the last Super Nino.....

Low 60s along the South River. Gorgeous morning

Late to the party, but I got absolutely crushed in the Lowlands around 1215-1230 last night. Woke me up out of my sleep. Thunder shaking the house and torrential rain. I managed to go back to sleep, thankfully, but that was a crazy little stretch when it came through. Reminded me of nocturnal storms in the Mississippi Valley.

You and me both

I think he could still be serviceable, but his days of every down work are probably vanquished. In the right scheme, he could certainly provide value. Considering Flores propensity to blitz, that should be favorable.

Can the Orioles sweep the A’s today? This is the period we have to take advantage of. We are 1GB of the Wild Card and we have this game today, and 3 vs Col. You sweep at least one and win the series in another and you’re over .500 staring at the final WC spot before a pivotal 7 game stretch incoming at home. Time will tell, but I’m keeping expectations low. As for the Ravens, I was at the game and truly enjoyed what I saw. This defensive scheme is looks pretty sharp, but Minter said this is actually relatively vanilla. The staff has been calling specific plays for specific players to see who they fare so they can analyze further to see who they want to keep. The more exotic play scripts are under wraps for now. Offense has some solid depth pieces, so it’ll likely come down to health and Oline play this season. Kicker concerns me, but that’s something that can be replaced in short order, so I’m not too worried….yet. I hope Loop can write the ship.

I’m throwing the rest of my tomato garden at whoever wants this smoke I’m ready for fall, but Mother Nature has other ideas. Ridge center will thankfully not be overhead, so it could’ve been worse. Heat Advisories are probably likely this week in many spots.

I said it a while ago, but in a stronger Nino, December is usually not a month to look for snow. Tends to be warmer than normal. Can still happen, but it's not the right time for it. Jan-Early March are your best bets, especially mid-Jan thru mid-Feb.

That was @katabatic and I!! That was one of the most surreal weather experiences of my life. That squall and the drive home are engrained in my memory bank. A phenomenal day of snow and fun. I would do it again in a heart beat! @katabatic is an amazing host!

Going to have to reach out to @katabatic and you about joining sometime this winter. Would love to catch some LES love. @WxWatcher007 and I have wanted to chase up there, and around Michigan too. Would be a ton of fun and not a whole lot of sleep lol

I'm genuinely thinking of filing a class action lawsuit against the Orioles for retaining our current GM despite overwhelming evidence he is impersonating an actual GM. The lawsuit will also include language that will ask for a recoup for mental and emotional damages that should be on par with Mesothelioma compensation.

The sad reality is, it's been a lot of bad luck for some and a lot of fortunate luck for others. This isn't a case where everyone has been skunked. Your area has been getting shafted while my parents down in Rehoboth has gotten hit multiple times, flush this summer. It's been a tough pill to swallow for many. Baltimore proper, especially east Baltimore has gotten trucked several times while the west side gets shafted. It's why I hate convective season around here. Need a synoptic scale gully washer to get everyone involved with good rain and some boomers.

Same song and dance. And guess what? The hitting didn't show up again. It's pretty simple to see why this team will go nowhere. Some of the more un-clutch players I've seen. For every one time they succeed, they fail another 4. Sigh Where's football season?