MillvilleWx

DOAH!! Wow, I feel dumb lol. Noted

Haven’t looked too much as I’m taking some much needed R&R from weather after that stretch. I’d lean no right now at a quick glance.

Bringing this over from another spot so it has more visibility. Wanted to shed a little light on something interesting about this last storm. As for obs, currently 40/25°

We did some reanalysis of the GFSv16 (Current model iteration) and GFSv17 (Newer GFS that will replace the current version) and found the current GFS actually did a phenomenal job at SLP placement for majority of its runs and absolutely smoked the CMC and ECMWF overall. However, it did have a 48 hr window where the SLP depiction was about 50-75 miles too far west and that caused a lot of QPF negative feedback on the western periphery of the main field. It handled a lot of other areas correctly and outperformed the EC and CMC still on QPF as those models were way too light on QPF. Overall, it was a great job by the GFS, but as is always the case, the result is usually a blend of models and not just one individual deterministic. The NBM QPF was skewed by some overly zealous members, mainly some CAMs that will actually not be there for the next version of the NBM (NBM5.0). We are working with MDL (Model Diagnostics Lab) to generate these analyses to improve upon what we have and go forward. Overall forecast ended up being amazing for the high impacted areas and average at best for those on the edges. With a storm like this, every mile can make a big difference in appreciable impacts.

Incredible seeing the totals out of RI and SE Mass with this one. I was on the winter desk the entire storm at WPC and the forecasts I generated prior to the storm were consistently 30+ inches across that area. My highest forecast point was 34.2” and that even got beat. Incredible storm up there. Congrats to all who cashed big time. One for the record books and one for the memory bank. I’ll always remember my chase to Waltham in Feb 2013. Still one of the greatest storms I’ve ever witnessed and probably the second best pure blizzard I’ve ever seen (Feb 9-10, 2010 back home in Baltimore). Good luck in the dig up there and enjoy the rest of this winter!

Plan is in spring I believe. I’ll have to double check, but I know it’ll be around prior to tropical season, so this is the last winter for V4.3. Next winter will be V5.0 or V5.1, so I’m looking forward to that on the desk. Definitely performing better than the current NBM operational. We see it in a lot of the verification.

Picture from parents place west of Rehoboth Beach. 19.3" on the measure and it really could've been a bit more with some compaction. Incredible

Pictures and videos from parents west of Rehoboth look surreal. Probably a solid 18-22" there and still snowing lightly. Thankfully they kept their power. Snow came up to the bottom of the patio table, which should be 20+ of clearance. Might be the most snow that area has seen in decades.

Certainly looks that way, but I'm definitely not counting on it in the lowlands. This time of year takes a lot at 16ft elevation. However, those with elevation could get some the next one later this week, but jury still out. How'd you end up doing out there?

Measured 2.4" this morning at my place, but probably compacted, so likely closer to 3". Can't verify that though, so I'm not going to report it. Definitely hurt to miss a lot of the bands over the Edgewater area. Not much to show for it this go around. A big branch did come down last night apparently, so more wood for fire pit this spring and summer incoming!!

Nah, they are getting obliterated. Family west of Rehoboth is over 6” and just getting crushed with 1+”/hr rates. DE will do just fine with this one.

Man, the deformation axis over the eastern shore is going to be WILD. 2-3”/hr rates in some of these at this point. Got a nice coastal front signature near Fenwick and the MD/DE border at the coast. Incredible

The model ratio on the NBM is too high and it’s overshooting the QPF. Unless I’m completely missing something (plausible), this will be overdone west of the bay outside the norlun, which you can see is absent from this output because it’s a blend.

Hey there! Not sure how those graphics are created, but those outputs are actually all models (This case it’s the HRRR) so it’s not the current representation surface analysis. It’s just a fancy way of model projection on the website. Pretty cool

32° in Edgewater Moderate snow with it accumulating on everything but the roads so far, although they are starting to get slushy.

I have no idea what they are doing. I lowered your totals on the WPC end. I'm missing something, or they are messing up something.

Hanging out with Tony Montana?

That's actually a good spot for our area. The issues don't arise until later when it gets kicked east-northeast. If it were to move northeast from there, or north-northeast like it has been, we would be in decent shape, but looks like it'll move away after is slows/stalls for 2-4 hrs. as the ULL maturation captures it. I think something is causing it to kick which I would need to look into. Is what it is. Still an incredible storm to watch unfold.

SPC mesoanalysis page 850mb winds (Version 2) is pretty nice. You can see some of the convergent winds over PA down into NoVA. That's a good indicator. Also watch the radar from PA down into MD/VA for localized reflectivity maxima orienting into a line. That's a good indication it's starting.

It's going to be close!! You are close enough to absolutely monitor. Like I said, this is so nowcast with that thing, but we'll know in a few hrs. where it will be.

Norlun trough axis right through there based on latest hi-res, so makes sense. That was such a nowcast feature that you had to wait to pull any trigger.

I think I'll just come out and say the nowcasting trends of the expected upper level behavior will probably lead to a lower end of any accumulation range for areas west of the Bay, expect those under the norlun trough. I think even I will get about 4-5" or so just west of the Bay. Eastern shore still looks ripe. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm not seeing a favorable 5H progression for prolonged snow here. The jog east-northeast of the SLP once it gets to the latitude of DE is basically on all guidance now. Unless that changes, probably going to be tough to reach >6" for anywhere west the western shore of the Bay. Northeast MD, Eastern Shore, and points northeast should still do well enough. I'm going to enjoy whatever I get.

Trough is tilting negative currently, so we'll see the 500mb heights probably close off over VA within the next 2-4hrs.

My parents just sent me videos. It is absolutely PUKING snow there right now. Everything is covered and accumulating efficiently. The Lower Slower DE is about to see some potentially historic snowfall from this one. 10+ is all but a lock.