MillvilleWx

US Drought Monitor is a contracted service with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln with decades of AG experience. The composite for the area has actually shown improvement from week to week after the last period of rainfall leading to a downgrade in category from Extreme to Severe at a higher prevalence. The top soil layer is only part of the equation and it takes more than 5-7" of rain to combat a persistent deep layer soil moisture pitfall. It took a step in the right direction this go around compared to what has been occurring. I can tell you don't like government bodies by this response and I for one have issues with some government entities as well because I want to hold governments at all levels to a higher standard, however the work done from top to bottom in this industry is critical in maintaining a positive report with the AG industry which spans far and wide across the U.S. This group is consistently praised by the decision-makers at large and anecdotal evidence from a small part of a bigger picture does not represent the entire story. We can agree to disagree, but I thought the map made sense from all the data I have parsed, which I do on the daily while I'm on the job.

Drivers of primary patterns take time to manifest because they become stable and promote large scale changes across the globe. The teleconnections are a case of drivers, but some last longer than others, so temporal variance is lower in more stable regimes. ENSO takes time to promote atmospheric coupling, so we usually see lags that can last months before the regime takes a greater hold on the overall global pattern. You also have your seasonal variances in the mix too, especially this time of year where the tropics begin activating with a series of waves and focus of trade wind flow stemming from hemispheric drivers like the development of the Bermuda High and Eastern Pacific ridging that takes shape as we see increasing heat flux across the Desert Southwest with a Monsoonal trough materialize due to topographic schemes coupling with intense continental heating. All of this to say; it takes time and pattern shifts also yield different results pending other variables that can be found during intra-seasonal transition and fluctuations within other teleconnections globally. Persistence usually wins out in the long term, but one stable pattern eventually does give way after a while when in the right scenario. This time, it will with ENSO’s transition to more El Niño composites, so it will only be a matter of time before the pivot. Right now, it’s not trending significantly in that direction the next few weeks, but you might start seeing signs of subtle shifts in the coming 2-4 weeks. I think a full hemispheric deviation won’t occur until later in the summer or fall. Just my 2cents.

Persistent NW flow with breaks of southeast ridging are not a good recipe for rain in these parts. The NW flow is the biggest culprit. It's why we've had these incredible spells of nice weather this time of year, but it's a detriment to rain chances due to increased dry air aloft and relevant down sloping potential when winds shift westerly. Need more persistent southwest flow with moisture advection. Haven't gotten into that yet.

We have the talent, but can we do this for a long period? I still have my doubts, but you never know. We can only hope!

Imagine if it was all snow

And then in game 2, everyone sucks again and we flounder the entire game. Team is terrible

Got nailed pretty good on my drive home from the night shift overnight. We needed that dousing down in our neck of the woods. Was a nice sight. Could use a few more of those!

They do not open the third lane east bound when there is rain or stronger winds, so it's just horrendous timing. They do it to prevent incidents of cars/trucks blowing into the head-on traffic, or hydroplaning into head-on. They also canceled the Bay Bridge Run back in November for the same exact reason. I don't ever foresee them changing that rule either.

What in the world? lol

That's textbook La Nina right there

Despite what the record says, the Orioles are actually worse than they were last year at this time. This is actually very sad baseball. On the flip side, the Nats got some great young talent that actually know how to play baseball and are having fun. I'd be excited to watch these young hitters this season.

Long time coming actually. Comes down to ability to handle total computing power. NAM Nest was solid in some ways, but overall it still trails a lot of the guidance with verification. Super compute power can only take so much and we still have RRFS and HRRR, plus the GFS and its intended upgrades. Comes down to the big three: compute power, verification, and money.

Went to the Os/Nats game last night. Beautiful night for baseball, but obviously a terrible night for guys trying to hit with RISP. Orioles are toast. It's actually one of the more pathetic showings of talent I've seen in awhile. They have a clutch factor of -100. Sad. Despite the outcome for myself, the atmosphere and the time at the game were incredible. Sat club behind home plate which was a phenomenal seat. The Nationals have a great ballpark. Next game will be at Camden Yards, so I'm looking forward to going and staking claim on a good seat with some Boogs and Stuggy's in my facehole

You definitely value heat more than me, so I understand your reasoning. I hate the heat. I only like 90+ when I'm at the beach. Otherwise, it's annoying. I do wish we could have more cool and sunny days, but this time of year, cooler weather usually indicates broad troughing or shallow cool from back door fronts. Can't have the cake and eat it too, so I get it. Alas, we also need rain, so getting warm and humid can at least open the door for convection. On to summer I suppose!

I'm enjoying the cooler weather because the humidity is on the approach. I will say, it could be warmer, but I know what that means around here....all or nothing. 94/72 or 66/41. No in-between...UGH

This thread should hopefully spur to life a bit with the overall longwave pattern shifting. Our good friend the WAR will be making a comeback which should open the door with better theta_E advection into the Mid Atlantic. We've been void of persistent southerly flow for a while with the NW flow regime basically a deterrent to any type of warm advection regime in this area of the country.

Can confirm. The warm season is ready to come in like a banshee

I'm looking forward to seeing how they screw this up /s SHOULD take AJ Dybantsa, but I've heard if we can trade back with Utah, we can grab more draft capital, which they need in the worst way since they have so many holes to fill. AJ just could be a phenomenal talent to forgo this year. 6'9 and is basically NBA ready in a lot of ways. He could play at the 3/4 with AD at the 5 and Trae running point. That is a solid 3 with some of the talent they have already.

Not as common in that part of the world, but I put out several of them in my time in Midland. Usually a high desert type deal or Southwest US during monsoon. Been so dry in those parts and high winds carry the dirt and dust off the plains. Quite a setup to get that up there.

Excited for this Ravens draft so far. Lane is a nice boundary X with incredible RZ upside given his size. The G from PSU is an absolute beast. I wanted him for weeks since seeing his tape. Oh, and Zion at the edge is a BULL!! Dude can gain leverage and set the edge pretty well. Power rush is a plus. Lacks speed off the edge, so he's limited in that scope, but I like the addition. I hope Mike Green can take the next step. He's the more complete pass rusher between them, but we also have Hendrickson who can teach these guys up.

This is the objective analysis page from SPC for upper levels. I don’t have the reanalysis for anomalies off hand, but I’m sure I can do some digging for you in the coming days while on night shifts. I’ll post anything here if I find it!! https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/

Cowser just isn't a good major league hitter. His SLG vs off-speed pitches is very bad and he even has trouble catching up to fastballs up in the zone. I hate to say it, but we may have 3 AAAA players on this team that we drafted; Cowser, Mountcastle, and Mayo. Rake in AAA and suck in the majors. Mounty is the only one that has had elite hot streaks, but even those are generally vs one team, the Blue Jays for whatever reason. It happens, but having 3 kind of stings. Ward is fine, but his defense will be a liability, O'Neil is back to never being healthy, Westberg is amazing...but also can't stay healthy. Adley has not been the same since he got hit in the hand June 2024 vs Yankees. Almost feels like he's got the yips or something. It's extremely annoying to see this squad with all this talent be insanely inconsistent at the dish, but tbh, we are one of like 14 teams currently trying to figure everything out and remaining inconsistent. Very few teams have separated themselves from the rest of their divisions in a good way. We have time, but to say it isn't frustrating would be a lie.

There better be a derecho afterwards

Can I interest you in some, “Absolutely not” with a side of “NO”?

Man, idk how you deal with the humidity. When I’m in Florida surrounded by palm trees and stuff, I can live with it for a time. Outside that, just brutal. I am a cold to cool weather fan with a thirst for snow. I probably belong in New England and you belong in South Carolina! That sounds like the perfect spot considering your flavors of weather choices. If you want heat with less mosquitos, move west of 100°W. That’s where I was in Midland located west of that line. Not much in the mosquito department, but it was WAY too dry. One thing about the US is that we have all the weather types you could ever want. Go where life makes you happy!