poolz1
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Everything posted by poolz1
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12/15 Possible I81 event. First inch of the season out here?
poolz1 replied to clskinsfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
Flipped to rain here. Call it .75" -
12/15 Possible I81 event. First inch of the season out here?
poolz1 replied to clskinsfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
First real snow fo the day. Ground starting to whiten up. Steady light/mod snow 33/30 -
The spacing looked better to me than 12z. The dive out of Can was just a bit further east and did not dig as much. Subtle variations to the ridge out west.
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I bet you love that little white spot's location! Ha! An interesting time period to watch. The ops are all over the place in their progression from run to run but something significant looks possible.
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1.50" so far. Temp down to 42 from a high of 55 at 530 this morning.
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At soccer practice in Smithsburg. Mod snow with a dusting. Glad I'm not on that field!
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0z GEFS and Can ens show the Pac jet strengthening again toward the end of their runs with the trough pushing east. EPS not as much. Just anecdotal but it seems like the GEFS have been more reliable in the 10-15 than the EPS here lately.
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34 for the high and currently 23. Legit airmass especially with no snow cover.
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Down to 29 already with a few flurries/sn showers on the way it looks. Did a good fireplace and chimney cleaning today in preparation.
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I did notice some agreement between the GEFS and EPS on southern stream energy coming out of the SW late in their runs. A small detail late in the run that probably isn't worth mentioning but hoping the idea gains some traction in the coming days. Lets get the real life version of an epic overrunning event.
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Dec 12-15th seems like a good time for a major storm when this relaxes a bit!
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EPS continues the idea of bringing blocking back in over GL after D10. Massive west coast ridge with the bridge to GL intensifying through the end of the run. Pretty impressive look.
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Maybe its just the GEFS (06z) playing follow the leader with the op? But it does have the two wave idea which could be a sneaky way to maximize the potential.
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Im hopeful man. Anomalous cold is a must the first week of Dec and that seems likely. A little bit of a cold/dry look there but its a smoothed mean in the LR. IIRC 13-14 was the year of threats popping in the medium range?
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A pretty relentless cross polar flow in the LR. The PAC pattern seems stable at the end of all ens runs.
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BWI: 16.5 DCA: 10 IAD: 20.5 RIC: 4.5 Tiebreaker: SBY: 9.0
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Another subfreezing morning low. 5th in a row and two of those mornings hit 29. Definitely an abrupt end to the growing season. The garden is officially toast.
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31 for the low with heavy frost this morning. Kicked the heat on for the first time yesterday with a high of only 56.
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1.81" with that storm last night. Several large limbs down on the road when I left for work this morning.
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4.09" for the event. Models did pretty good with precip forecasts imby. Always hoping for something more impressive but this was at least something to track and some interesting weather. Been a pretty boring summer in the weather department.
