WxWatcher007

Warm but beautiful day to honor the fallen. Love to see the Memorial Day parades come back.

For the stargazers among us. There’s a link to the original weenie AMS post.

Will there actually be action on Wednesday? lol

That’s my guess. It’s nice out, but awfully boring.

RI in the EPAC Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Agatha is rapidly intensifying. Recent conventional and microwave satellite data have shown that the storm's convective structure has significantly improved overnight and this morning. Overnight microwave imagery indicated that a low to mid-level eye had formed and more recent 1109 and 1206 UTC SSMIS overpasses revealed that the inner-core structure has continued to improve. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 77 and 65 kt, respectively, while objective Dvorak estimates have increased to near 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been set at 75 kt. The environment ahead of Agatha is expected to remain favorable for further intensification. The hurricane is currently over SSTs of around 30C, within low shear, and embedded in a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. As a result, continued steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the next 12-24 hours after which time the hurricane's intensity is likely to level off due to a possible eyewall cycle and/or interaction with land. The updated NHC intensity forecast is notably higher than the previous advisory due to the higher initial intensity and likelihood of continued rapid strengthening today. The new intensity forecast brings Agatha to near major hurricane strength before landfall in southern Mexico and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. After landfall Agatha should rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains terrain of southern Mexico. Agatha has been meandering this morning, but the longer term initial motion estimate is 345/2 kt. The hurricane should turn northward this afternoon, and then begin to move on a faster northeastward motion tonight and Monday as it becomes embedded in southwesterly flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level ridge to its east. On the foreast track, Agatha is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight, and move onshore on Monday. The latest track guidance is once again slower than before, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new NHC track remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.1N 99.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Still substantial uncertainty over how organized a circulation we see after the now rapidly intensifying Agatha crosses into the Atlantic, but here’s an excellent plot by Michael Lowry on what climo tracks have looked like for the development zone. Unlikely the name stays the same as guidance rips it apart over land.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southern part of the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week. Afterward, some gradual development is possible while the system drifts generally eastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Roberts

It’s likely a legit signal at this point but there’s still a ton to sort out on where TC genesis occurs. Both ensembles spin something up.

I’d be shocked if 91E weren’t a TC at the next update.

Ensemble signal on the EPS/GEFS looks solid as well for this range. Need a little more time to figure what the seed for development looks like, whether it’s the actual EPAC system per the Euro or some other area of vorticity a la GFS.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 551 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Appomattox County in central Virginia... Northeastern Campbell County in central Virginia... Southeastern Amherst County in central Virginia... The southeastern portion of City of Lynchburg in central Virginia... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 550 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bocock, or near Rustburg, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Lynchburg... Appomattox... Concord... Rustburg... Appomattox National Historic Park... Riverville... and Stonewall. This includes The following Locations Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued for the same area. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

That’s a big time storm. The one to the north of it is rotating too.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 101 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Baltimore City in northern Maryland... North central Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 101 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over South Gate, or over Severn, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Severna Park around 105 PM EDT. Ferndale and Green Haven around 110 PM EDT. Riviera Beach, Sparrows Point, Fort Smallwood State Park, North Point State Park, Glen Burnie, Dundalk, Pasadena, Lake Shore and Brooklyn Park around 115 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Fort Howard, Gambrills, Edgemere and Turners Station. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

That’s helpful, thanks.

Called it.

Anything specific in those two areas? A park?

^ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1102 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 1130 AM EDT. * At 1102 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Bumpass, or 7 miles east of Mineral, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Spotsylvania and Massaponax around 1130 AM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Glenora, Post Oak, Gatewood, Brokenburg, Snell and Alsop. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

As horrifically boring as this wx has been, it’s been beautiful out here with everything green again.

Both the Euro and GFS have an increasingly legitimate signal for TC genesis in this the Gulf and/or SW Atlantic next week.

Euro develops that area we were discussing a while back in the EPAC and drives it north into the Gulf as a trough scoops it up. GFS is wild this time of year lol

Unsurprisingly, the NOAA hurricane season forecast still calls for another above active season. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season We will have our first quiet May since 2014 but I do think we’ll have a window in early June for our first named storm.

What a beast in Texas right now.

You can’t let me have one cat two cane with a tractor tire eye that rolls over some sparsely populated, but chaseable land?