WxWatcher007

I'm retired. I'm harmless now.

WOAH I don’t get a cameo in all that???

Just a quick and lazy update on my part. Hurricane season officially begin tomorrow. There's a slight but growing signal that the first legitimate window for development in the western Atlantic (including western Caribbean) opens up near the middle of the month. To be clear, it's still early, but we're now starting to see that western Atlantic minimally conducive from a SST standpoint (just recall SSTs were below 26C ten days ago for 91L) and guidance suggests that wind shear in the western Atlantic will be lower and we could see a favorable MJO state for development near the middle of the month. Anything that develops in the western Caribbean would have a shot at decent development given the oceanic environment. Long way to go but something to keep an eye on. As you can see below, this is a climo favored spot in the first 2/3 of June.

20/9/4

I know some others wrote on the wall, but I read your post and went through this thread and drafted a note. Thoughts? Perfectly fine if some think we should write individually, but I think it encompasses many of the thoughts shared in this thread.

Enjoy

Very nice light show here tonight

I've noticed that Twitter and FB love to screw up the quality of videos when uploading. It's frustrating.

Nice! Is the pixelated part you or Twitter? Seriously though good stuff.

Take a look at those two cells near New Milford and New Preston. Always hard to tell with the radar out there, but they look a little “notchy”. Of course, if this were Kansas they wouldn’t bat an eye

We'll see. I'm still a bit skeptical but the radar looks ok to the west. Mesoscale Discussion 0752 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021 Areas affected...portions of northern VA...MD...DE...NJ...eastern PA...southern NY...southern VT...and western MA/CT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...206... Valid 262041Z - 262145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205, 206 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to produce sporadic wind damage the next several hours as they moved eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. DISCUSSION...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms continue to quickly progress eastward late this afternoon. Mainly weak instability prevails across the region, with some pockets of MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg closer to the Delmarva vicinity. While this weaker instability and limited deep layer shear is subduing a larger severe threat, very steep low level lapse rates are aiding in periodic strong downdrafts. Sporadic damaging gusts have been reported through the afternoon and this trend should continue with the more intense clusters over the next few hours across eastern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205 and into Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206. ..Leitman.. 05/26/2021

Not a bad look with those cells north of Rutland.

Line kinda collapsed in organization lol. A couple decent cells around Rutland. Meh (so far)

Starting to see some wind damage reports in western NY.

TORS FOR ALL!

James had a passion for the weather that sometimes drove us nuts haha but I always admired it. So many people go through life without finding something that truly inspires awe within, but James found that with weather. He was an important member and contributor in this community. His vibrant personality, hilarious scraps with Ray, and meaningful observations will be missed. May he rest in peace.

Just heartbreaking news. So young.

I don’t really consider myself particularly knowledgeable when it comes to severe compared to others, but when I see 3km CAPE and low level helicity like that line up, I sit up. Obviously there’s a lot more that goes into it, but tomorrow looks interesting from a potential standpoint.

Not bad…not bad at all

I don’t think mod is on the table—that’s quite hard to do around here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a limited enh zone though in upstate NY or NNE on D1 though. It looks like a decent severe setup especially up there. Down here in CT I agree with Wiz that there’s a relatively brief window for severe. Would like to see a discrete cell or two to maximize potential.

You just count as 1 NS. It’s pre-deadline so you get credit for it.

Caps talk evaporated in here faster than soil moisture in @EastCoast NPZ’s old backyard

Tropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sun May 23 2021 Ana is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone this morning, as the core of the system has become devoid of organized deep convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed that wind field is slowly weakening, with peak winds of 35 kt located just to the southeast of the center. Based on this data, the initial advisory intensity has also been decreased to 35 kt. The cyclone is currently located over cool SSTs of about 20 degrees C and surrounded by very dry air in the mid-troposphere. The environmental conditions will only become more hostile through tonight, as Ana gets caught between a digging mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a strong subtropical upper-level jet to its southeast. These features will impart increasing southwesterly shear over the system by later today, and any convection that tries to regenerate should be stripped away. Whatever is left of Ana's low-level circulation should then open into a trough on Monday as it becomes absorbed by a large approaching baroclinic zone associated with the upper-trough. The storm is now moving northeastward at 12 kt, and an accelerating forward speed is anticipated until dissipation as Ana gets caught up in increasing deep-layered southwesterly flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 36.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 38.0N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 41.7N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto