WxWatcher007

Winter 2013-14 may be my favorite winter, and I spent it in DC. Basically wall to wall winter from Jan 1 through March.

I went back to 2017 to plot OHC at this time in the basin.

This far away from any land impacts, it’s all in good fun to try to figure out which will develop. I don’t think I’d say 100% won’t develop, but I’m in the camp of it taking another wave or two before the tropical Atlantic opens up. I think the western Atlantic will have had a system or two develop by then.

There’s a guy out here mowing

Hard to buy right now when the tropical Atlantic remains dry and stable. It’ll change, but like I said the other day you may need some sacrificial waves first.

Skipped right over me too. Saw this coming from a mile away.

I’m just saying buyer beware. I love the weenie stuff too but there is such a thing as too much drugs.

That’s just weenie fodder. Even if the GFS consistently showed that, it’s so far away that you couldn’t consider it a serious signal absent multi-guidance ensemble support.

We’re getting there. Hyperactive looks off the table but solidly above average looks feasible as long as we can get some instability in the tropical MDR.

One of the benchmark floods

It’s still disorganized obviously, but that wave in the western Caribbean has held convection together nicely. The only things holding it back are land interaction and some shear to the north. We’ll see how it looks after the Yucatán, but this is as good a candidate as any for homebrew development. Wherever a center forms would be critical to TC genesis chances and eventual track.

Wet ground! .03”

Summer of bore continues.

Active look again today on the operational and ensemble guidance, and it’s not stuck at the end of the runs. Growing confidence the lid is primed to come off as early as this weekend starting with the BOC disturbance.

Ensembles continue to like TC genesis in the BOC in a few days.

The only way to do it lol

Well this is the first time my gauge will be operating in years now that I have a house. Station not online yet.

For this kind of forecast that’s all we can do. Zero expectations here, and I’m still leaning toward nothing meaningful outside of far eastern CT, but it’d be nice to watch a quasi-tropical system blossom tonight. Rain tomorrow imby would be a bonus.

well you know how it is. Sometimes they are a little late to the party, especially with stuff near the coast. Each year there’s like at least one that pops under the radar with the NHC. Colin was one about six weeks ago. Kinda think that October storm was name worthy much earlier too.

Oh yeah, totally agree. I’m just saying I don’t see the NHC chiming in right now.

I wouldn’t expect the NHC to comment on this one unless it’s making a run at being fully tropical or subtropical. Doesn’t mean it won’t have some characteristics though.

Yup. Just biding my time until I can hit the road.

Not really thinking there’s meaningful rain imby, but hopefully we see a nice storm blossom to break the mind numbing monotony.

Between the October faux hurricane, blizzard, and drought bullseye for the AEMATT crew, I’m prepared to draft a declaration of secession if they get the coastal too. We will not go quietly into the night as the damage capital of New England.

Agree. If we do see multiple systems, I think they develop in different parts of the broader basin. The environment just isn’t there yet in the central and eastern Atlantic for multiple spin ups in rapid succession. That’s why I think the lead wave is least likely to develop, @GaWx. Much like the failed 97L, you often want a sacrificial one to moisten the environment ahead. Honestly though, we’re starting to get to the point in the season where if an AEW can survive it has a chance to develop in the western Atlantic and Gulf. We’ve had a lot of those in recent years. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where an area of low pressure could form by the end of this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly to the northwest or north-northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin