WxWatcher007

I’ve chased a lot of things…I’d never chase flash flooding. It can get very dangerous extremely fast. Be extremely conservative if you do go.

Anytime you have a high risk, something ugly is coming.

It’s going to be hard going from severe warnings for baseball size hail, 70 mph gusts, and possible tornadoes back to warnings for gusty showers and pea size hail.

Congrats PF in winter AND summer

Sucker holed just in time for my return lol Proposed to my now wife at Acadia during peak fall color. It’s a fantastic park and Bar Harbor is a great community.

A few more from the Lamar supercell yesterday

Final chase report. What a trip. Just wish yesterday popped a little earlier.

Chaser Report: 7/6/23 It was a classic hurry up and wait day, as a complex forecast evolved over eastern Colorado. I decided to hold in Denver, as the CAMs remained confident in the cap breaking and we had clearing that allowed for substantial destabilization. It was late afternoon when we had convective initiation, with two transient supercells just east of Denver. Both dropped funnels, and there were reports of a tornado and landspout. Once we reached Limon, things quickly picked up. New storms popped to my north and south It became apparent very quickly that the southern storms, which were explosively developing before my eyes in an environment of 3,000 SBCAPE, 2,500 MLCAPE and 50-70kts effective shear were the ones to track. The chase…was on… What were distinct cells ended up congealing into a monster long track supercell with a hail core at at least one initial tornado report. The sun was setting so it was hard to see how close it was to producing a tornado but I did see a wall cloud behind the frequent lightning. Rather than try to cut behind the storm and beat the other supercells that were developing to get to Lamar, I called it after these photos. It was an excellent call, as the supercell became tornado warned, dropped more baseball hail, and caused flash flooding along what would have been my route. The only downside is that yesterday became a nocturnal threat as the cap broke late. I pushed it to the limit and it paid off. It was an epic chase overall. This is my third time out here and each time I’m getting better at forecasting and tracking.

It’s complex and fascinating just how different a world it is out here. Shortly after this post, two storms popped to my north and south, each dropping funnels and at least 1 tornado and/or 1 potential landspout. Initiation happened because of the “Denver Cyclone”. Then, CI happened just as I arrived in Limon due to an impulse east of Pueblo, and the real chase was on. It went from a series of thunderstorms to a congealed cluster, and finally, into a monster long track supercell. Said it before and I’ll say it again—you’d love it out here. I’m still learning how to do it right but I’m getting better each time.

It’s not as picturesque, but it was something to behold from convective initiation to when it became a monster. I have some other pics on different cameras and hopefully one of them has a funnel.

What an evening. Ended up on the eventual Lamar cell. Had to stop due to darkness and that was a great call because Lamar really got hit hard.

Just just between the two cells that each produced funnels.

For the purposes of today at least (I’m in the Denver area) if there’s a way to determine the threshold llvl lapse rate to overcome a cap for the explosive convective initiation.

I have to learn how to forecast lapse rates.

Today’s my final chase day, and it’s the toughest yet. We have the ingredients for a significant severe event today, but capping may be an issue. Last night, I was planning to set up shop in Lamar. Early this morning (around 5am local) it looked like Pueblo would be the spot. Then after sunrise and seeing the clearing here in Denver and stratus further south, I decided to stay here until things fire…if at all. It’s a good forecasting challenge, that I hope bears fruit.

Really didn’t expect to see that.

I have absolutely loved it out here, and I agree. The landscape is so beautiful. To be available to see as far as your eyes can take you is a wonderful thing. Every time I come to Colorado in particular I love it more.

Didn’t see this coming

Wow—those are awesome! With the limited road network…and driver fatigue…I stayed near Colorado Springs and ended up leaving just before things got active lol. It’s certainly an interesting (and wide) split between the SPC/LFO and the CAMs today. Hard for me to believe SE CO will be that capped but we’ll see what kind of recovery we get after the morning storms, which have pushed east for the most part via early visible and IR. Looking at just planting in that highway 50 corridor and being patient. Even one long track supercell could put this trip over the top for me, but want to make sure I stay in proper position should we actually get late afternoon/early evening activity. We’ll see. Best of luck out there today.

Meh day here in CO but my luck continues because I captured a brief time lapse of the one severe warned storm in the area today. Dropped 1” hail according to a spotter report. Happy birthday to me lol

By my east coast standards lol, yesterday was fantastic. Thinking today may also be a solid day in CO or northern NM with more isolated storms and good shear.