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Winter Wizard

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Everything posted by Winter Wizard

  1. Winter Wizard
    I don’t have reanalysis handy, but how does this setup compare to 2/9/15?
  2. Winter Wizard
    Primary is still nuking over Lake Ontario at that point.
  3. Winter Wizard
    Cut that Kuchera map down by at least half, front end is going to be paste. Back end, sure, you'd see 12-15:1 ratios most likely. Even though it's a very nice run for the Pike region, I don't think it does much to quell concerns: you get a quick front end thump and then you're banking on fickle IVT snows from a late developing coastal. Flow is still very progressive.
  4. Winter Wizard
    Looks like the east leaning members converged back to the west. Going to introduce p-type issues near the coast if that holds.
  5. Winter Wizard
    Yesterday's runs were Goldilocks solutions and I don't think it's surprising at all that if you adjust the timing and positioning of certain features, all of a sudden the ceiling becomes much lower. Not saying this is a similar progression as what we saw in mid-late December, but it's a good reminder that the setup can be textbook but if certain pieces are misaligned, then it won't come together. All in all, with how this winter has gone, I don't think you can complain about a 6"+ mean with this lead time.
  6. Winter Wizard
    I would be much more concerned about a whiff north than missing south. The primary decays a bit too late for me to feel comfortable and the tendency this season has been to weaken confluence over Canada.
  7. Winter Wizard
    It's a pretty bizarre evolution and IMO the primary decays a bit too late for my liking. Having the -NAO and pivoting 50/50 Low certainly does raise the bar for if/where this develops.
  8. Winter Wizard
    Agreed, this does not look close to December in terms of magnitude of the blocking. NAO is much more meaningful for Europe than the US anyway. Certainly strong agreement that Canada will be chillier than normal but not sure how much of that will seep into the US besides the Upper Midwest and the Rockies.
  9. Winter Wizard
    March 2010 is a great example of how a -NAO block in March far from guarantees a cold pattern developing. If you look at the other cold/snowy March cases recently that had NAO/AO blocking, it was because there was help in the Pacific domain. Currently I'm hard pressed to see the Pacific working in the East Coast's favor for the foreseeable future.
  10. Winter Wizard
    The 2/23 threat definitely has legs in New England, IMO. Key difference from December is now we'll have the 50/50 this time in addition to the -EPO and an east-based NAO block. You can certainly thread the needle with that depiction but the timing is delicate: if it comes in too soon, then this will be sheared and suppressed, but too late and this is another cutter.
  11. Winter Wizard
    For reference, at this time on 2/13/16, BOS was 12 degrees https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ma/east-boston/KBOS/date/2016-2-13
  12. Winter Wizard
    I feel decently confident in saying that with the delayed movement in the front, BOS will go below -10 tonight.
  13. Winter Wizard
    You can still score a decent overrunning event if things align correctly, but those usually favor New England. Does not scream KU though without those features.
  14. Winter Wizard
    The upcoming pattern certainly seems like December deja vu. EPO block rivaling December's (which has trended stronger every day since 0z Thursday) will dump the extreme cold into the N Rockies and Plains but will struggle to make it to the East Coast until probably the end of next week thanks to the SE ridge. Then there will be a few days below average, but as blocking retreats, we return to the canonical Nina pattern and I think the Northeast torches yet again while the West is cool and stormy. If things align, I think there could be a good opportunity to score something in the 2/2-2/7 timeframe as the Metro rides the boundary between polar cold to N and W and the lingering SE ridge, but after that, I don't see much to be enthused about.
  15. Winter Wizard
    At first glance, I could see this playing out similarly to the Super Bowl storm last year, which clocked the South Shore, in a high end scenario. Certainly have a pronounced FGEN signal but soundings show a good amount of dry air in the mid-levels.
  16. Winter Wizard
    IMO the cold period, if it does happen, wouldn't be until the 28th or so. I suspect the back end of January follows a similar progression to December where the West cools down first once the Asian-Pac jet relaxes, likely around 1/20, then slowly progresses eastward. After that, Nina climo generally favors a return to a -PNA pattern and strong SE ridge for February. It isn't pretty.
  17. Winter Wizard
    Pretty clear differences between the EPS and GEFS evolution...EPS has a notably stronger -PNA signal which enhances the SE ridge and takes the mean storm track farther N while the GEFS is neutral to slightly positive. You would want that parent low to decay sooner, closer to OH/KY border rather than MI to get any appreciable frozen precip into the Mid-Atlantic. Even then, it would favor the typical climo areas - at the current depiction, it's difficult for me to get enthused if I lived near the coast.
  18. Winter Wizard
    I'd probably push the first two windows back a few days, otherwise this seems pretty solid to me. Models have had a very tough time handling the Pacific so far this Fall and have been too quick to erode the -PNA again. I'm optimistic that we'll at the very least go neutral by 12/20 while EPO turns back to the negative phase and blocking retrogrades to the Hudson Bay. That's a pretty good look for some potential late month fireworks but no doubt there will be more meltdowns before then.
  19. Winter Wizard
    Right around 2” here in West Somerville, maybe a bit more. Slow start but ended up exceeding expectations.
  20. Winter Wizard
    Stuck in the screw zone here in downtown Boston.
  21. Winter Wizard
    Surprised to see so little discussion about Wednesday. Easily could be a moderate event for southern regions.
  22. Winter Wizard
    Unless we tack on a few tenths this should be the final total. Solid storm.
  23. Winter Wizard
    The CF is pretty solid here in Somerville. Probably above 8” at this point.
  24. Winter Wizard
    Hi-res guidance is pretty insistent on some OES this afternoon and evening. Maybe we squeak out another inch or two along the eastern MA coastline?
  25. Winter Wizard
    7.3", sleet.
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