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Everything posted by Winter Wizard
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Winter Wizard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Nope. The low center is 2 mb weaker and a bit east, but the rain-snow line is more N and W. I reiterate what the other mets have said that this is very much thread the needle between conflicting variables. You need to simultaneously balance being amplified enough to send in the best dynamics and not be squashed by confluence, but also not torching the mid levels with strong easterly flow. Extremely difficult to pull off in this setup. Interior is a different story, this should be nice for the Poconos, NWNJ, and I-84 corridor in NY.- 3,610 replies
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
Winter Wizard replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
OH Valley primary low looks weaker and north and Canadian high retreating a bit sooner. Hour 102.- 3,610 replies
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Agreed and at a certain point we have to be careful what we wish for. Unless there's a windshield wiper back, I think it's totally plausible for this to keep moving north and west to the point where perhaps BOS, PVD, and HFD are in danger of mixing. Curious to see what the ensembles and the Euro suite show, but I've been more concerned about an inland runner vs. suppression.
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Euro looks like deja vu from this week but with an even stronger storm. Deluge to heavy wet snow is certainly a plausible idea for the interior depending how the low occludes.
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Don't think anyone on the outside is missing much. Marginal temperatures and snow growth looks poor. I think any accumulations on the South Shore would be pretty localized.
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Sunday-Monday storm looks pretty solid for the ski resorts IMO. Would also watch late week for one of those sneaky waves to come down the leeside of the trough and bring some light snow to spots.
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Looks like a brief window for a bit of early season fun from just after Thanksgiving into the first couple days of December. Obviously a lot needs to line up, but with a -EPO and now a +PNA (which was a big reversal yesterday), we may get some BN anomalies for a time coupled with the active STJ. The driver of this is a major reversal in global wind to the negative phase, which will actually put us in a La Nina esque regime for a time, similar to what we saw around Halloween. My hunch is this is temporary, maybe a few days then we return to a torch pattern through the middle of the month.
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Winter Wizard replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's an overblown concern IMO, people say that after every storm.- 2,790 replies
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion)
Winter Wizard replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I think all systems are a go for one of the most significant severe weather outbreaks in our region the past few years. Skies are clearing so CIN is quickly eroding and our atmosphere is destabilizing, we’ll see if any crapvection fires out ahead - that’s probably the main limiting factor at this point. Kinematics still look quite favorable for some discrete cells to pop off the Appalachians this afternoon and I do think the tornado potential is legitimate especially those of you outside the Beltways. Linear storm modes are favored by the time you get inside the Beltway and east and we’ll be looking at a widespread damaging wind event. I am concerned about the potential for tens if not hundreds of thousands of power outages once this moves through. Hope everybody is safe, this is looking more and more like one for the books.- 2,790 replies
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Thursday, July 27, 2023 Severe Weather Potential
Winter Wizard replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
This is one of the better tornado setups I can recall in recent year in SNE. I think the weak lapse rates, and discontinuity between best shear and instability will limit the spatial coverage but there should be a few pretty potent storms. Clearing looks to be happening as expected below Concord, NH. My hunch is SPC is too far north with the tor risk, this screams CT to western MA jackpot to me. -
Do you have a link to this? Would like to take a look.
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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
Winter Wizard replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
NAM 3K is definitely coming west. -
The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
Winter Wizard replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Haven’t had time to look at anything since, but this is my first call map from this morning. Should be a fun one for most of you! -
The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
Winter Wizard replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
Way too bearish IMO. Big storm incoming. -
The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
Winter Wizard replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
You basically have the full repertoire of outcomes on the table here...I suspect we're seeing the classic progressive GFS bias and Euro overamped bias at play here. Way too early to have any confidence in a call, but need to closely watch the interaction between the two streams: if the northern stream comes racing ahead then this will be a late bloomer scenario. If the southern stream races away then you get a much stronger storm initially and inland runner is on the table. Both scenarios seem equally plausible at this point, in my opinion. -
Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
Winter Wizard replied to George001's topic in New England
This was my map from this AM, no major changes after looking over today's guidance. If anything, would trim eastern Mass some (T-2 for the immediate coast and the Cape). -
Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
Winter Wizard replied to George001's topic in New England
Lol you kind of get the worst of both worlds on that Euro, most of the region misses out on the WAA thump then the confluence shunts the coastal low to the southeast. NNE is smoking cirrrus. -
Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
Winter Wizard replied to George001's topic in New England
I actually thought the GFS was an improvement, farther N and W with the primary low and then weaker confluence to the north provides a bit more coastal enhancement. That's still good for a widespread 6-12", in this winter I certainly would be happy with it. Would be a quick mover though without any mechanism to slow it down, unlike those wild solutions from yesterday. -
Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat
Winter Wizard replied to George001's topic in New England
A warning event is still very much on the table for most of the forum and would be a huge victory with how the winter has gone. There have been clear modes of failure with this one to prevent it from becoming a big dog.