Winter Wizard

Nothing but white rain in Somerville.

HRRR and RAP are both trending toward the Euro clearly at 18z. Not just in terms of south, but in terms of withering away the dynamics. This one is slipping away.

I hate to say it, but there is a pathway for the Euro/UK to be right if the weakening trend continues. Trim back the dynamics of the storm, and it becomes harder to overcome a marginal airmass. Hard to bet against the majority of guidance in favor of an outlier, but this raises a red flag to me. Models seem to really be struggling with the convection. I'm holding the line for a significant snowstorm for all of SNE, but with more caution.

I agree with you on this one, this airmass is poor and I would keep expectations very low near the coast. I do think everyone will changeover at the end as colder air advects, but the question is, would that be too late for anything appreciable? It can work with a Euro like amped solution, but not so much if it's weaker like some of the other models.

This is one of the most thread the needle storms I've ever seen.

I'm told we have between 4 and 5 inches at our house in Wilmington. I no longer live there, but nice to see the area finally get a WSW event. Haven't seen one there since March 2018.

This storm ticks all the boxes you want…fresh injection of Arctic air and deepening vort passing to the south. I think it looks good for another moderate event forum wide with some room to go up. Consider me bullish.

Looks good for area wide 2-4. Some could eke out a bit more depending on banding.

Mixing issues near the coast otherwise Euro looked sweet for most people. Getting closer to locking in a nice hit.

The trailing vort over the Deep South tells the story here...it's more progressive, so the trough turns negative sooner, and that allows our storm to deepen further. The ceiling has been raised with this one.

Wow, that's a crusha.

Hour 108 looks pretty juicy too with the stronger storm just off the Cape. May open up the door for a longer duration event as this continues to throw moisture back toward the coast. Perhaps that could make up for a potential messy start?

Yep, exactly, all of those pieces are working in tandem which makes this complex. Putting it together, I think these are subtle but noticeable improvements across the board for most in this subforum.

Confluence is a bit weaker this run, I expect a tick back to the north. Also a little stronger.

Nope. The low center is 2 mb weaker and a bit east, but the rain-snow line is more N and W. I reiterate what the other mets have said that this is very much thread the needle between conflicting variables. You need to simultaneously balance being amplified enough to send in the best dynamics and not be squashed by confluence, but also not torching the mid levels with strong easterly flow. Extremely difficult to pull off in this setup. Interior is a different story, this should be nice for the Poconos, NWNJ, and I-84 corridor in NY.

OH Valley primary low looks weaker and north and Canadian high retreating a bit sooner. Hour 102.

OH Valley primary low looks weaker and north and Canadian high retreating a bit sooner. Hour 102.

Agreed and at a certain point we have to be careful what we wish for. Unless there's a windshield wiper back, I think it's totally plausible for this to keep moving north and west to the point where perhaps BOS, PVD, and HFD are in danger of mixing. Curious to see what the ensembles and the Euro suite show, but I've been more concerned about an inland runner vs. suppression.

Two notable trends here: notably less confluence over Atlantic Canada and a less amplified western US trough.

Euro looks like deja vu from this week but with an even stronger storm. Deluge to heavy wet snow is certainly a plausible idea for the interior depending how the low occludes.

Don't think anyone on the outside is missing much. Marginal temperatures and snow growth looks poor. I think any accumulations on the South Shore would be pretty localized.

Sunday-Monday storm looks pretty solid for the ski resorts IMO. Would also watch late week for one of those sneaky waves to come down the leeside of the trough and bring some light snow to spots.

Looks like a brief window for a bit of early season fun from just after Thanksgiving into the first couple days of December. Obviously a lot needs to line up, but with a -EPO and now a +PNA (which was a big reversal yesterday), we may get some BN anomalies for a time coupled with the active STJ. The driver of this is a major reversal in global wind to the negative phase, which will actually put us in a La Nina esque regime for a time, similar to what we saw around Halloween. My hunch is this is temporary, maybe a few days then we return to a torch pattern through the middle of the month.

It's an overblown concern IMO, people say that after every storm.

I think all systems are a go for one of the most significant severe weather outbreaks in our region the past few years. Skies are clearing so CIN is quickly eroding and our atmosphere is destabilizing, we’ll see if any crapvection fires out ahead - that’s probably the main limiting factor at this point. Kinematics still look quite favorable for some discrete cells to pop off the Appalachians this afternoon and I do think the tornado potential is legitimate especially those of you outside the Beltways. Linear storm modes are favored by the time you get inside the Beltway and east and we’ll be looking at a widespread damaging wind event. I am concerned about the potential for tens if not hundreds of thousands of power outages once this moves through. Hope everybody is safe, this is looking more and more like one for the books.