DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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You guys are looking fantastic there, good spot to be. Thinking 8-12" for OKV area. As for the gradient, I'm close to the thick of that, hoping a divergence band just dumps over my head when the WAA slug moves in and I get a little enhancement off the Catoctins.
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Overall just a bit drier. Gfs likes to dry systems up close to game time.
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Shows the h7 banding over s pa well.
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Kinda getting close to that on the euro run right now
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Nams are a win for basically all.
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Agreed thru 33
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hoping 0z does another 30 miles northward or hones on the QPF in the NW band across our zone.
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Good post. Almost .4” QPF as of 18z run it looks like. Can definitely turn that to 6-8”
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We think so. Or has the late game north move commenced? Euro is a noticeable improvement
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Would be a good time to bless us all… watching the vort intensity and when it’s closed/open vs the other varsity models.
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Yes, there’s tons of mixed messages being thrown around in here. The only 18z model that didn’t come north at least some was the RGEM. The GFS was about the same as 12z but was better with qpf on the northern periphery. Euro up to bat shortly.
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Was expecting maybe a subsidence zone between the two maximas with how strong the h7 lift north and h85 lift south are on some of the CAM’s. Gfs is more like the American mesos and NAM than the south camp. Northern expanse of precip for m/d folks is better this run.
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Weird qpf orientation it seems. Track of storm is similar. Should probably be juicier than shown
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The 3k is a thing of beauty for a lot of folks in here. Will make many friends. Someone post a map.
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The vort and corresponding flow are intense this run. I’d expect a pretty robust shield of QPF with that look.
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Most of us already finished once by then. Would be a reload for the backside love.
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Low is also 2mb stronger out there. Vort is amped pretty good despite being a bit south. A stronger vort penetrates the confluence better later on.
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One of the best places to be when it snows. I’m tired of hearing the guns going and seeing the little snow plumes from my yard without having real snow cover. We’ve maximized a few events dating back to last year and the event in 2021 when the Catoctins and south mountain corridor jack’ed.
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All I’ll say is this… if I had no access to surface maps and just saw pressure, h5 and mid level maps, I’d assume the surface truth would be a nice hit from S PA to N VA. Not a big high pressure dome to constrict the precip shield and I’d think with the vort set up this would be a juicy storm.
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That’s been my optimism here around ski liberty. Elevation and N/W areas will have a ton of good h7 forcing and great ratios. We’ve seen the deathband set up a lot here. Even last year I did and grabbed 6” in a storm where Westminster had 0.
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Even more of a moneyshot frame for many of us in the sub
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This is the national blend of models, takes into account many of the top global and CAM models along with some other inputs. You can search up on precisely what it is and how weighting works.
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I have very little to add to this, basically what I’ve been echoing as well. Let’s avoid more south activities from here on out.
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You don’t think the CTP/LWX border counties have a questionable decision on advisory vs warning at this juncture? We know game time could verify warning level with banding and the maps posted the last few minutes regarding 700 fronto, but there is disrepancy on verifying warning criteria north of BWI over towards FDK/HGR.
