DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Fingers crossed that stays closed as long as possible through VA.
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Yep, dry slot. Coastal taking over though.
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Snow and mix lines are north this run vs 12z on WB. 850’s not warmer maybe a stronger nose? Have to check soundings
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Want to see the gfs continue a great UL pass and coastal enhancement regardless of track for the WAA slug. Could save us northern folk if we do get screwed. High ratio backside stuff has been the savior before.
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North of the last run, that I can tell from a quick glance.
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RGEM meanwhile is more a nod to the NAM/GFS camp thus far on its 18z run. Looks snowy for a lot of folks.
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It doesn't hurt us as much because the northern edge isn't nearly as tight and the WAA slug isn't hitting the wall. The lobe of energy to the north edges in once the snow has crossed into our area from what the NAM shows. Also, the damn coastal had taken over and was kicking really nicely at h84.
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You have to love the depiction as modeled. Great WAA slug that thumps the **** out of most of us, followed by a near perfect pass at h5. Let's keep those UL's closed off as it passes south of the area and the modeled CCB piece is not just fantasy.
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This was a WET run near the heaviest QPF. There's a lot of dynamics at play here.
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For our silly list of isms here LOL. The sounding is so close on the NAM. I've always looked at for ML thermal layers, and with this being advection of GoM moisture and SW flow, if there were a tongue, there's a chance it would sniff that out.
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Shellacked. NAM is a pretty solid run for a lot of folks. Really some pretty impressive fgen and vv's too as the low closes in on our area.
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Grass is coated nicely here and solidly moderate snow coming down.
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It is a bit wetter on the northern side, you're correct.
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I mean even if the Euro looked like the GFS track wise, the euro is substantially colder aloft. There's a decent bit of wiggle room I'd bet for anyone DC N
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DC would do better if you had slightly worse thermals honestly. You aren't getting the really hefty slug of QPF driven into the area near the warmer sector. Rates are a big part of the fun of course.
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Crazy to say seeing how far south it is, but the UK nudged a bit north if anything.
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Summary of the 12z suite ICON - slightly south of 6z, 6"+ S PA to NoVA GFS - carbon copy of 6z but wetter for jackpot zone, DC to M/D line GGEM - Slightly south of 0z, 6"+ S PA to PWC. RGEM - Slightly north of 6z, 6" line at the M/D and south
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Central PA Winter 2024/2025
DDweatherman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Nice run and easy way to score, but you wonder if that makes sense given the other models amping the vort pretty hard. -
Hourly frames definitely seemed south of 0z, maybe by a fair bit? I'd bet it shows 4-5" up for PSU land and MBY without seeing the good maps.
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This looks south a fair bit of the last iteration if I'm being honest. I'm sure DC folk will like it. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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That GFS run was a beauty, great h5 pass for ULL backside snows and a juicy WAA slug for most. Pretty decent thermals DC and north to.
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Foot for DC, Baltimore, PSU, Mappy, we all take that.
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The GFS does not look like the Euro, let's not mislead anyone. There's a reason PSU posted the image above.
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It does look very reasonable on the runs for this storm with regards to QPF and high level details.
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Good passage coming through there Yoda, I agree. Probably tack on 2-4 in a lot of spots.
