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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    The GFS has done this before, and it also is a good bit warmer at the mid and lower levels without a CAD wedge the likes of which the euro, Ggem, and UK even have on latest runs. yes the vort can amp too much depending on location and progression, but I’m not buying what this particular run shows verbatim.
  2. DDweatherman
    Nvm on the same page now.
  3. DDweatherman
    Wxbell maps say a lot differently. Has mix line up to FDK almost m/d line. Maybe SV looks different?
  4. DDweatherman
    He mains contoured aka 2 closed contours if you look at the h5 maps. Usually indicative of a pretty substantial vort/sw
  5. DDweatherman
    That combo could actually make for the best overall outcome later in the money frames re: no dry slot and coastal enhancement as the h5 is a bit more negative. lets see what happens
  6. DDweatherman
    The storm is 3 days away now, Saturday is 2 days? I’m confused why you’re not allowed to make a real call 2 days out. That’s when the NWS will issue their forecast and headlines for the storm will likely be in place…
  7. DDweatherman
    The kids liked my forecasts back in the days of school because I gave them a real forecast. Shed those %’s by Saturday and make a real call.
  8. DDweatherman
    Jesus, a 17” jack over my house is some work of a shit model. Tell you what, I love the evolution this run though. Extremely dynamic and a 994 on OC usually makes for a big hit.
  9. DDweatherman
    How about this list not having a storm since 1962…
  10. DDweatherman
    A pretty high impact event to be honest. Big impacts from Topeka to KC to STL through Indy, Cincy, Columbus, before it gets here. ice impacts down into Lexington.
  11. DDweatherman
    I’d lean towards that especially if amounts are still solidly in WSW ranges come tomorrow night.
  12. DDweatherman
    I love the pre plowed peacefulness of covered streets, especially up in my hood since they don’t seem to come mid goods. Roads get dicey quickly in Carroll valley when it snows, especially in the higher sections.
  13. DDweatherman
    I love daytime snow but something to be said about just getting ripped in the street lights 1-2"/hr at 24 degrees.
  14. DDweatherman
    I WOULD be surprised if it didn't, agreed lol. That corridor where we are looks like a great spot for fronto banding judging by some of the h7 maps. Millville has been alluding to that last day or two.
  15. DDweatherman
    It's a real nice hit. Basically 8+ on Kuch maps for me to TSSN land and then the 10+ on the metro corridor out to OKV where we have the 1' totals.
  16. DDweatherman
    That .15 can be 3-4" for sure as we've seen with those kinds of evolutions. Someone mentioned the closed pass in 2/10/10, some areas were melting SLR's in the mid 20's+ IIRC.
  17. DDweatherman
    Agreed. Having 4-8" area wide OTG then that piece move through would give us longer duration and a nice bump to the totals. Just don't want to get stuck depending on that type of evolution to do most of the damage.
  18. DDweatherman
    The snow in the backside deform is what I’ve been saying would include some really solid snow growth and ratios. The mid level pass looks supportive. hoping a lot of us cash with the thumpy WAA slug then tack on more fluff with that piece.
  19. DDweatherman
    The weekend rule is one of our finest. That and the ole EE
  20. DDweatherman
    Let’s be clear, the euro is still #1 in scoring, but in my eyes isn’t the king it once was. It has had a decent idea on this one for a couple days, but his wavered a fair bit as well (just not as much as some of the others).
  21. DDweatherman
    It's impressive we get the surface look the GFS shows with that h5 broadness. I'd have to think if we could get that sharper with the N/S wave phasing in, it would have to go boom.
  22. DDweatherman
    baby steps h5 wasn't impressive, but almost had something. Usually its the other way around in these parts.
  23. DDweatherman
    That's my pet peeve, too broad. If this was sharper, it could be really a sweat.
  24. DDweatherman
    Definitely interesting. h5 seems too broad but its different than some of the other runs. Better heights in the SE out in front and N/S making a pass at the energy.
  25. DDweatherman
    I agree. And I'm likely not using the GFS thermals for any indication of what mixing could occur. A setup like this with the flow scheme as High Risk said isn't sending sfc temps into the mid 30's. There might be a ML warm nose if the primary drives up into C WV and is a bit more amped, but I'd expect some kind of CAD wedge to counter it.
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