DDweatherman

Look at last run. We really shouldn’t use the 12k Nam at any range anymore

For comparisons sake, look at 18z 12k Nam hour 9 vs hour 15 from 12z. Safe to say we really shouldn’t use that model whatsoever (for anyone that didn’t already know)

I like what I see for DC in this, have been mostly bullish to this point, thinking 5-8”

reports from the home front it’s borderline SN+ back home in Carroll Valley, 29 degrees. Maybe we can get 2.5-3” outta this

Wife said it’s coming down nicely in Carroll valley. Here I am about to land in Ft Lauderdale. I’m sure we’ll over perform

Well you’re about to already be safe from bustage

I’m gonna love his commentary when DC gets 7”

In what way? If it busts positively for the north folks? Or just bust busts I’m about to depart DCA so the snow should be starting shortly

Through 4, yes 4 hours, I'm betting the 15z HRRR will be improved over 14z

I always used to love those days being the only one there and having peace and quiet to work. However, the drive back in traffic and poor drivers makes it less worth loving.

Those frames don't look bad, but 14z HRRR was sadly drier for DCA and NW.

Good stuff, I'm thinking 6-9" for CHO on this one!

You’re gonna get rocked down there, enjoy it! Make sure to go on a few Jebs

I have to sadly predict 2.2” for MBY, might be overdone but maybe there’s a NW death band that’ll show up. I won’t be there for it, so I’m sure there will be a surprise.

Such a classic one in the last sentence. Too many things to get blamed for! I too would be quite bullish going strictly off satellite images and WV, as the connection on this one is a long fetch of moisture with the gulf open for business. It wouldn’t appear to be moisture starved. Here’s to hoping the HRRR catches on at 13z, even though this is a 1-3” event for MBY. had to change my flight out of DCA to 1230 today when I was looking at radar and obs before bed. 4pm would likely have been no go even down in UHI hell.

Eh, hr 27 looks worser like Narl said. Maybe I'm high?

Pretty wet in spots from what I can tell.

There have been so many days this year with snow whether it be snow showers, actual snow, etc.

He's compiling his analysis as we speak. Also pulling up the RAP.

Not really, still mainly mixed bag or rain

I was more so talking about the southern edge. Big time differences in NoVA down to RIC.

A very big difference between the GFS and Euro just about a day out from this one... also note the ICON looks more Euroish and the RGEM looks more GFS-ish. NAM is in between.

Damn right, now it has to be real.

Clearly wave 2 weds night is essential for the N MD/S PA gang.