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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    It's a pretty stacked vort through the levels. That's almost an ideal location too. Other models have shown something similar, euro is quicker with moving it through but does have a potent vort as well, just not quite as slow or amped and a bit south.
  2. DDweatherman
    With the potency of this one and the moisture advection, it's becoming pretty clear if someone can get in the core WAA slug and then get additional snow from the backside, there's going to be double digit totals and some 12" amounts to be found.
  3. DDweatherman
    Thats the EPS mitch, NAM didn't do much southing, more so tightened up the QPF distro gradient. Would be some nice high ratio snow post h84 for us as well.
  4. DDweatherman
    Plenty of good fronto around as the WAA slug moves in for us, there would be some really solid rates here.
  5. DDweatherman
    Going to be almost no virga today, already snowing lightly here under light returns.
  6. DDweatherman
    Taking some of the NAM "biases" into play and looking at thermals, that seems to be a really solid run for most DC and north. Plenty cold at the surface and heavy QPF. Vort is closed off at h5,h7,h85 on the way in and a great pass for the secondary slug to come in post 84 for extras.
  7. DDweatherman
    Through 15z Monday, heaviest QPF DC up to HGR and west, it's a very thumpy slug.
  8. DDweatherman
    It's a very potent shortwave and a decently intense surface low reflection moving in the right region to maximize SW flow into the cold sector of the storm. Not surprised to see what the precip frames look like. Pretty good run is cooking methinks.
  9. DDweatherman
    That's a really impressive vort coming across the country on the 12z NAM. You're going to want to be in the meat of this thing when it hits. Definitely a bit less press from the NE influence thus far through 57h.
  10. DDweatherman
    It was a big run, 6z Nam that is. Had put a lot of snow down by the end of the run with a fair bit more to come.
  11. DDweatherman
    Really, if you look west of the apps and see the swath of high totals along I-70, that’s where you’d expect (at worst) to see them on our side. This only really hurts the north crew if the precip then moved south of east which isn’t very typical. I usually am on the late north trend crew but definitely noticed the somewhat newly sampled lobe of energy up north of New England that seems to be playing in this one. Good or bad day ahead lol
  12. DDweatherman
    At least GFS made sense with regards to the stronger s/w and slower movement that the other models in the suite caught onto. The UK says f all that and is faster and weaker with the vort. Sheesh.
  13. DDweatherman
    Trough doesn't do much magic when its held back like that. If we would have gotten a better orientation with that QPF shield and where the SLP popped we would have had something really nice there. Euro AI kinda did that.
  14. DDweatherman
    I know what you meant though, it is held back at h5 a bit further W, doesn't allow the trough to tilt as well. However, precip swath is better and oriented more favorably for us.
  15. DDweatherman
    The Canadian is what I expect that kinda upstairs look to result in. There's still a formidable cold dome and associated confluence being driven into by the s/w. Yes its potent on these runs this evening, but it actually can result in a solid CAD wedge, which the GFS is notorious for not representing well. The Euro, GGEM, NAM, and Icon thermals were all pretty solid at 0z.
  16. DDweatherman
    It would be a bigtime fluff event Monday aftn/evening for sure. Toned back version of what we saw that day. I’m with Matt though, don’t see that gfs evolution having a ton of legs as is.
  17. DDweatherman
    The GFS has done this before, and it also is a good bit warmer at the mid and lower levels without a CAD wedge the likes of which the euro, Ggem, and UK even have on latest runs. yes the vort can amp too much depending on location and progression, but I’m not buying what this particular run shows verbatim.
  18. DDweatherman
    Nvm on the same page now.
  19. DDweatherman
    Wxbell maps say a lot differently. Has mix line up to FDK almost m/d line. Maybe SV looks different?
  20. DDweatherman
    He mains contoured aka 2 closed contours if you look at the h5 maps. Usually indicative of a pretty substantial vort/sw
  21. DDweatherman
    That combo could actually make for the best overall outcome later in the money frames re: no dry slot and coastal enhancement as the h5 is a bit more negative. lets see what happens
  22. DDweatherman
    The storm is 3 days away now, Saturday is 2 days? I’m confused why you’re not allowed to make a real call 2 days out. That’s when the NWS will issue their forecast and headlines for the storm will likely be in place…
  23. DDweatherman
    The kids liked my forecasts back in the days of school because I gave them a real forecast. Shed those %’s by Saturday and make a real call.
  24. DDweatherman
    Jesus, a 17” jack over my house is some work of a shit model. Tell you what, I love the evolution this run though. Extremely dynamic and a 994 on OC usually makes for a big hit.
  25. DDweatherman
    How about this list not having a storm since 1962…
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