DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Would be a good time to bless us all… watching the vort intensity and when it’s closed/open vs the other varsity models.
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Yes, there’s tons of mixed messages being thrown around in here. The only 18z model that didn’t come north at least some was the RGEM. The GFS was about the same as 12z but was better with qpf on the northern periphery. Euro up to bat shortly.
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Was expecting maybe a subsidence zone between the two maximas with how strong the h7 lift north and h85 lift south are on some of the CAM’s. Gfs is more like the American mesos and NAM than the south camp. Northern expanse of precip for m/d folks is better this run.
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Weird qpf orientation it seems. Track of storm is similar. Should probably be juicier than shown
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The 3k is a thing of beauty for a lot of folks in here. Will make many friends. Someone post a map.
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The vort and corresponding flow are intense this run. I’d expect a pretty robust shield of QPF with that look.
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Most of us already finished once by then. Would be a reload for the backside love.
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Low is also 2mb stronger out there. Vort is amped pretty good despite being a bit south. A stronger vort penetrates the confluence better later on.
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One of the best places to be when it snows. I’m tired of hearing the guns going and seeing the little snow plumes from my yard without having real snow cover. We’ve maximized a few events dating back to last year and the event in 2021 when the Catoctins and south mountain corridor jack’ed.
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All I’ll say is this… if I had no access to surface maps and just saw pressure, h5 and mid level maps, I’d assume the surface truth would be a nice hit from S PA to N VA. Not a big high pressure dome to constrict the precip shield and I’d think with the vort set up this would be a juicy storm.
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That’s been my optimism here around ski liberty. Elevation and N/W areas will have a ton of good h7 forcing and great ratios. We’ve seen the deathband set up a lot here. Even last year I did and grabbed 6” in a storm where Westminster had 0.
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Even more of a moneyshot frame for many of us in the sub
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This is the national blend of models, takes into account many of the top global and CAM models along with some other inputs. You can search up on precisely what it is and how weighting works.
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I have very little to add to this, basically what I’ve been echoing as well. Let’s avoid more south activities from here on out.
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You don’t think the CTP/LWX border counties have a questionable decision on advisory vs warning at this juncture? We know game time could verify warning level with banding and the maps posted the last few minutes regarding 700 fronto, but there is disrepancy on verifying warning criteria north of BWI over towards FDK/HGR.
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Historically we’re looking to target -5 to -8 at the growth level, no? And when that coincides with good mid level lift and VV, you can really max the ratios.
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I’m watching the gradient and seeing where the fronto will align with it. I don’t know that we’ll get a north trend but the northwest edge can definitely perform even without it. We’re gonna go from 1 to 6” somewhere in 40 miles or so.
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The NAM also closes it off and actually keeps our vort closed further eastward. NAM is a chump model but 3k iteration looks good for a lot of us and isn’t terribly different upstairs.
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The only way I’d expect it to do that is if the low actually took a south of east vector across the valley. It is a potent s/w and there’s no HP. It’s true that the sampling is light in the area of the lobe in Canada, but no real sign of north movement yet. This is a set up where it can jump 50 miles north last minute, but no indication of that at the moment.
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Needless to say 30-50 miles will mean a ton at game time for some folks. I’d bet the 1” to 6” gradient will be 40 miles or so on the NW/north edge.
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Don’t generalize. I’m looking for one no doubt. But I’d take it looking exactly like 6z if we’re being honest. That alone is enough to think the UK is on something.
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Also, it looks to phase the energy in more than kick it on the GFS. The s/w position at h51 isn’t all that different and really nor are the heights to cause as much ground truth difference. But downstream from this is where the effects are magnified and the big divergence is.
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Wish I was in front of the computer to break out the other models and compare that feature.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
DDweatherman replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
I’m going to have an ex wife of my own if this tracking is right.
