DDweatherman
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Also a little faster, noticed some of the overnight runs were quicker with the low and start time again after slowing down quite a bit.
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
DDweatherman replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Fortunate to have good memory I suppose which helps, but can recall all the 2009-2010 storms, the 2011 commutageddon event, 2014, 2016, and some other <10” events in between. The st pattys snow was a nice one in our surge of overperforming winters 2014&2015. -
Couple of options, 1 being he doesn’t care about the Nam much. 2: dc is a snow town again, so he doesn’t need to worry about models.
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Definitely got wetter and brought the big time qpf more north. Tightening up the gradient which we’ve seen in a number of big ones. It and gfs aren’t far off now. Today whatever moves they make will probably be in the same direction. Our north crew would take 50 miles and the dc contingent would get smashed still.
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Another thing i noticed is the confluence the NE is definitely a bit lessened on 18z euro h75 vs 12z. low also a bit stronger. I’d sort of expect a bit more north based on those 2 changes.
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I hate to say; Randy’s pbp on the SV maps threw me off. This came north a bit on 18z euro I think. Heavier qpf definitely came north a bit.
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More people are going to start rooting for it to be wrong if it moves any more that way.
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As many of you know, this ends up being an IMBY sport near game time. It’s hard for everyone to win, especially to win at a similar level. that being said, this has the chance to be a high % pleaser to some extent for many in the sub forum.
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Meanwhile in Indiana the same place has between 5 and 22 inches across those runs…
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Fingers crossed that stays closed as long as possible through VA.
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Yep, dry slot. Coastal taking over though.
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Snow and mix lines are north this run vs 12z on WB. 850’s not warmer maybe a stronger nose? Have to check soundings
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Want to see the gfs continue a great UL pass and coastal enhancement regardless of track for the WAA slug. Could save us northern folk if we do get screwed. High ratio backside stuff has been the savior before.
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North of the last run, that I can tell from a quick glance.
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RGEM meanwhile is more a nod to the NAM/GFS camp thus far on its 18z run. Looks snowy for a lot of folks.
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It doesn't hurt us as much because the northern edge isn't nearly as tight and the WAA slug isn't hitting the wall. The lobe of energy to the north edges in once the snow has crossed into our area from what the NAM shows. Also, the damn coastal had taken over and was kicking really nicely at h84.
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You have to love the depiction as modeled. Great WAA slug that thumps the **** out of most of us, followed by a near perfect pass at h5. Let's keep those UL's closed off as it passes south of the area and the modeled CCB piece is not just fantasy.
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This was a WET run near the heaviest QPF. There's a lot of dynamics at play here.
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For our silly list of isms here LOL. The sounding is so close on the NAM. I've always looked at for ML thermal layers, and with this being advection of GoM moisture and SW flow, if there were a tongue, there's a chance it would sniff that out.
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Shellacked. NAM is a pretty solid run for a lot of folks. Really some pretty impressive fgen and vv's too as the low closes in on our area.
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Grass is coated nicely here and solidly moderate snow coming down.
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It is a bit wetter on the northern side, you're correct.
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I mean even if the Euro looked like the GFS track wise, the euro is substantially colder aloft. There's a decent bit of wiggle room I'd bet for anyone DC N
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DC would do better if you had slightly worse thermals honestly. You aren't getting the really hefty slug of QPF driven into the area near the warmer sector. Rates are a big part of the fun of course.
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Crazy to say seeing how far south it is, but the UK nudged a bit north if anything.
