DDweatherman

We could win on a moderate event this way if we are all setting expectations on a 3-5'er.

Phasing looks very sloppy this run compared to some of the prior runs (thru 60).

I wouldn't mind a 5-6 week stretch like what happened in 14 or kinda what happened in 15. Hitting with those borderline events which our areas maximize potential on.

I certainly don't mind those when we get more than 1 and that ends up being the winter. A second one in a week reminds me of last year when I had two warning level events up here. The 4" outside from yesterday looks great, wouldn't mind adding 4 more.

Exactly what I'm hoping for. Some degree of phasing that keeps the juiced system together as it moves towards the coast. If we can get the low to about the OBX that should push decent snow over most of the sub.

I think that's a way most of us can win vs relying on the coastal to climb the coast via a clean phase. A little interaction should keep the precip intact as this propagates eastward into a decent airmass.

Pic taken through the window this morning of some deep winter. Not the storm we hoped for up here, but about 4” total. Chilly this morning 18 degrees.

Sounds like a good plan. I prefer to grill my steaks year round vs skillet cooking inside. Also had a regular grill out there, but that was retired. May want another since I get a different steak experience from the blackstone. Come break in the grill season and check out the view this spring! Weather related, northern tier folks got caught in subsidence between the h7 fronto that ended up in central & NPA and that h85 near DC/NoVA. Kind of poor growth for this area, then a little love on the back end. Just about 4” going to take a few measurements in a bit.

Really? I was wondering about that. I had an orange rubber cover on the top itself. But that came off before Christmas too, and someone didn’t put it back on…

Sadly the cover is not on the Blackstone…negligence. Can’t have nice things.

@ravensrule do I have a nice deck? Ski liberty in the background would be the lights.

Obligatory deck pic. Ski liberty in the background where the brighter lights are.

Do you have last run for comparison? Couple are okay but not all that inspiring.

Sad that we’ll prob get it on a storm 200 hrs out and that’ll be the peak of the tracking.

Hard to have too many opinions judging from that comparison. UK seems more GFS like than Euro but that’s a WHAG.

Gosh I’d love to see beethoven’s ass later

That being said, hoping for a whole lot of folks later and this week.

People were saying the northern folks are due in actuality, give the snow to @North Balti Zen now!

Ready to add 1-2" over the next 2-3 hours. Radar looks noice.

Definitely did think with that track MBY would be in the meat of it, but I won't scrutinize too closely at d5, especially until the GFS has company in its camp.

Me too, and I love that the low is actually "west-er" because it starts to set up a middle ground of SLP tracks that still work well.

Boaf'em. The ULL is feeding off the energy from the coastal transfer to help keep moisture transport in tact. Sometimes we get good vort passages, but they're dry because they don't have a mechanism.

Some places got that in 1 6hr panel of this GFS run still LOL.

Interestingly it looked like it had the opportunity to be a cleaner phase at around h84-90, but the SLP just took a bit longer to go given the slightly more pos tilt. The trick is to have the euro and others move again in this direction. That really all comes down to the northern energy.