This is my favorite analog, maybe slightly less QPF laden, but the overrunning and a “light” primary transfer from S OV/TN valley being the key. Anomalously cold airmass as well much akin to PD2.
We have PTSD, a lot of trauma for many of us depending on storm/storm chance since 2016. MBY had one big one in 2021 that was localized but for the most part my kids have never seen a storm over 6”
If the euro shows an area wide 8-12 here in a few I’ll be ecstatic. The model has a history of trashing our fun and shitting in the punch bowl like no other.
Well that’s you, speak for yourself. It’s like @Bob Chill says, you don’t get the opportunity much…so when it comes you try and make the most.
If I get 8” imby I’ll be thrilled, but I’d take 20 if it was possible within reason.
It’s a folks run, stop giving us this explanation for a d6 run. Might not be anywhere close to what happens, but it’s a folks and a half. I’m gooning over it as we speak
I’ve been reading and interpreting model runs for 15 years, this isn’t textbook for us in many ways. That said, can still score a decent event with a singular stream wave and some tapping of gulf moisture.