DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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H120 is going to be key for many…
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I like the sharpness in the n/s feature and the best energy being on the backside to possibly promote downstream phasing.
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That could end up with a G… or an F… downstream if the gfs doesn’t f this up.
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Some of the models have shown the n/s getting a little quick, which wouldn’t kill the storm quite like the Baja s/w getting buried, but it would reduce the probability of long duration precipitation and some Of the high end upside.
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It’s definitely not over 12z, but it’s not a bad look. Probably another 4-6 for the area after 120.
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Time for the real 18z models..and a Prozac. Main focus is efficient release of the Baja s/w and no further slowing of that and timeline on arrival of precip.
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What I really see here is the major divergence more so would come between the 84-108 window of time…none of these are that much different from a NA500 hemispheric perspective.
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Yet zwyts can post here to tell us he can’t post here? It was confusing. i too agree with the EPS trend gif being my favorite part of 12z, maybe minus the UK thrashing us all again
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Hope the big 3 airports are all closed.
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That has already begun trust me.
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Might as well root for a bit more amped to put the snow line just south of bob chill’s yard so we get into the heaviest meat at gametime haha
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I gotta see the maps. I thought h5 looked pretty good that run but qpf seemed kinda paltry on Randy’s maps for the phasing being “clean” coming east.
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The euro has been insistent on the “part 2” picking up the slack on its runs. Later hours allows the low to creep north and the n/s element keeps the snow guns on for quite a while.
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It helped a ton that it snowed for long duration and the phasing got DC/Balt into the goods there after h129. Wide precip field. Through 129 there wasn’t that great of totals Qpf wise.
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Definitely not folks, seems ok. Maybe I’m wrong but a step back.
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It’s kinda crazy too because it was a historic top “couple” DEC storms of all time for our region and 20” totals in plenty of spots, and it happened relatively easy. There wasn’t a ton of sweat in that tracking either minus the little north creep at the end to really get everyone.
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And 26 years to the date of the 1/25/00 miracle.
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If the euro does at 12z what it was cooking at 6z when the run ended, it’ll look similar to those UK maps.
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Well the UK met looks strong again, MECS+ for a majority of the sub.
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I am mobile, but was gonna say, that doesn’t look like an appreciable step back. Qpf max in similar spot, definitely not like the op.
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Very icon-esque.
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People don't realize south is a correlation to timing somewhat in this case. Slower can be souther. But if you roll forward the frames, it gets to a similar spot.
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I think what we're seeing with CMC is similar to Euro. A little more hold in the energy provides the boom solutions, whereas too much of a good thing in that regard can render a GFS outcome. No one knows what will actually happen here, but the GFS has been a pretty bad model for quite some time.
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All we're asking for today is holds people, that and this god forsaken s/w to come out of the effin hole out there.
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Canadian definitely slower to push the energy out a bit, but looks like UKMET and Euro out to 96. Lots of energy helping to pull it eastward into the phase.
