DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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The 6z was a pretty unanimous move to the west/NW.
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I unfortunately woke up (accidentally at 430am). Sat in yellows for an hour with no flakes, then we got our 1/2” of consolation.
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That’s not bad news with what the Nam did at 6z for tomorrow
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I’m allowed to talk a little shit about him since I’m the best man in his wedding this year, but @TSSN+ texts me pretending like he’s never seen snow every time there’s good rates. He’ll be doing it when we’re 60
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The Hanover and map crew should get an hour or two of heavy stuff. 1-2” I bet
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People of Hanover are about as threatened by you threatening to riot as Lou Brown was by Roger Dorn…
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Euro with a big move NW as well, not to where the NAM, RGEM, RRFS are, but that was a big move by euro standards.
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Yellows overhead, nothing.
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If only… maybe the rap can sniff something out for the continued trends. The 6z suite definitely brought this a fair bit west across the board
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Keep us posted on tonight. Can actually see heavy stuff moving over your place on radar for once. I smell an overperforming weekend again
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I think we need to separate the threads for tomorrow’s little event and Sunday, but I’ll defer to Randy and the mods. I guess tomorrow doesn’t affect enough of the sub?
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There’s gonna be a lot of posts in here tonight if the GFS or Euro do what the NAM is doing right now for Sunday.
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It’s way way west
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The recon data coming in, i still remember the bad data “claim” 48 hours out from Boxing Day, then 0z was just as west, and watches came out by 3am lol
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Correct, tomorrow favors us in the NW, Sunday favors your folks bay and east.
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the country or the model? Because the GGEM is that...
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Unlike some here, I'm not losing sleep over this stuff. If its going to snow however, I'm going to look in the direction of what 20 years of studying this hobby has taught me to look for.... favorable teleconnections, a good source airmass, and precipitation/moisture streams being present. Having strong ENS support at "range" is a part of that, and right now we have it... so yes, many would argue it's our most favorable window of the season with support. Until its not.
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All versions of the GFasS aren’t great.
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Next folks. The pattern later next week is our best chance of the year; and probably with a simpler recipe to win. Overrunning type of setups.
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It’s really all because of the GL energy. Without that or of course with a phase in, we’d be in biz.
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A good edge session over the long range ensembles never hurt anyone I suppose. Don’t give ravens that rope.
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Can't hate it. There's definitely reason to think this isn't dead looking at the 0z suite thus far.
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That analysis is definitely spot on, but I will cough and it seems like we have these conversation sheets time we’re looking for positive trends, or now cast bust. The models tend to do a good job accounting for a lot of these things, maybe not at this range but especially closer in to game time…
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As per a typical thing we need to avoid, sloppy phasing is at the top of the list. Need 0z to be cleaner like 12z was. Wouldn’t mind the 18z euro bridging the gap with something in the right direction, though it’s 6&18 runs never seem to
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There was more of that kicker feature, but honestly didn’t flatten it THAT much. Small minutia differences though have big implication for this. Feels like a move towards the wrong direction.
