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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I don't disagree. 8-9" in 6 hours for Baltimore and suburbs is a pretty sick panel @ 120.
  2. DDweatherman
    Also, let me just say it was almost a folks for sure, that was nearly big time looking at h5.
  3. DDweatherman
    It's a folks for some. It's an interesting run, nice to see the phase still there. Actually runs the low inland over Dover at 120 (as a 988). I'm sure E PA and NY get demolished next frame.
  4. DDweatherman
    I like what I see so far... I'll defer to you in case it delivers so you can build up the tension.
  5. DDweatherman
    Can already say it does more with the northern vort sig vs the Euro in comparison.
  6. DDweatherman
    I'd actually take my chances with the blocking and antecedent airmass. If it goes over Salisbury a lot of us still get a lot of snow.
  7. DDweatherman
    Mr. Penjamin reporting for duty. Early thoughts on 18z GFS is s/w energy being held back a bit more, northern energy a bit "norther."
  8. DDweatherman
    That will be a relief, but I'm sure you miss the days of the little ones venturing out in the snow. I had 3 a 5 year span and we're just getting into the thick of it. You spend a half hour for them getting ready and bundled to run outside and say "it's too cold" or "I want to watch my show."
  9. DDweatherman
    If I didn't know any better, I'd say were going to do okay here the next few hours @Bubbler86 @mitchnick based on the radar. Filling in nicely and some heavier stuff to the WNW. Couple that with high ratios and good growth and 20dbz returns should make for pretty heavy snow.
  10. DDweatherman
    Eh its on and off with that feature, definitely a lot better than 12z overall.
  11. DDweatherman
    Heres to hoping they are as wrong as they were last night.
  12. DDweatherman
    Sad, but true. Even when it caves at 18z, it'll probably come back at 0z. The individual EPS members aren't all that far off with SLP positioning either, but without a cleaner phase of the northern piece, it has a much lesser mechanism to climb the coast and stays too pos tilted.
  13. DDweatherman
    He posted a radar image of central PA as well, HRRR doesn't have anything outside of the SW corner of the state.
  14. DDweatherman
    It's not really the southern stream thats the issue vs the other models. It's more the sloppiness from the N/S and the energy breaking off eastward.
  15. DDweatherman
    More serious reply, the vort isn't headed much south of due east thus far.
  16. DDweatherman
    We could employ weenie logic that it was too far north on part 1, so part 2 will go a bit north
  17. DDweatherman
    ML Lapse rates around 6 across the area coinciding with 850 fronto that's smack dab over MD right now. Where bands do develop, there could be a bit of convective nature and good rates.
  18. DDweatherman
    Radar looks pretty good in PA and back to the west. I'd be pretty optimistic for many judging from the significant uptick in precip. Just need it to hold together and keep that vort from de-amping too much on the way by.
  19. DDweatherman
    It's really not that far from something more like the GFS honestly. I'd say it's "better" overall with the pieces vs last run but we need more.
  20. DDweatherman
    Historically, the GFS actually has a good track record with the northern stream doesn't it?
  21. DDweatherman
    It's quite simple really. Ride the model that gives you the most snow, expect the model that shows the least to be right.
  22. DDweatherman
    There's a reason they call it Dr. No
  23. DDweatherman
    Love to see that improvement from the Canadian. GFS is capable of sniffing something out, but definitely need support, especially since this is only at d5.
  24. DDweatherman
    Couple inches for us on the GGEM, 126 there's a 997 on the outer banks. Slides out from there, but much improved.
  25. DDweatherman
    How about another model show this other than the JV GFS?
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