DDweatherman
-
Posts
5,998 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by DDweatherman
-
Laughable these differences. That said, crazy to look back at h5 from 18z yesterday which was a lot worse than this even. Slower evolution from the other models, namely euro may be producing the gfs being in purgatory this run.
-
All I am watching on today's run is making sure this energy ejects out properly and in some timely manner. After that, the recipe for a big hit isn't that difficult to make.
-
Agreed 100% with this. More of a classic progression and honestly a lot more analogs like it that we can compare to. It's what produces the 2 part WAA over to CBB/deform PD2 and others have had. You love that primary into NE TN/W NC and transferring with this kind of airmass.
-
I like the look of the ICON at h5 on that h84 frame above... let's see where it goes. Nice to have a less closed off s/w there.
-
This is banter, they can say whatever they want. Just like what Webb was doing yesterday, save us the trouble. We're looking at synoptics and quite literally reporting on what the trends are.
-
They say good things come to those who wait, slightly slower evolution but the ceiling is very high in that scenario. Would be very PD2 ish in duration and potentially even magnitude.
-
I think mainly a factor of speed. End result might have been more robust than 0z in totals. Looks awesome up at h5
-
I would pay to see extra frames of that 6z euro fun. Woulda been a HECS for a good bit of this sub given that h5 at the end and what was already OTG thru 144
-
It’s true, you can have needles and plates at 15 degrees. That said, there looks to be a deep dgz and great forcing so ratios should actually be great in the money zone there.
-
I see a F word worthy frame coming very shortly.
-
You’re not even old enough to go to an r rated movie by yourself and you want a storm named after you? Sheesh man kids these days
-
Yeah that piece diving in has bigger dog potential even… we’ve seen runs show something along those lines.
-
We’re going to need more than that difference wise downstream to have the implications we need. It’s a positive; but it’s not much yet. I like the height improvement and tpv more than the s/w energy changes early
-
It’s only fitting the guy with the mlk avatar brings one in our direction on mlk day…
-
The way this happens is if the s/w doesn’t eject out of the SW. if you see that, we can perhaps get shutout in the dc/balt region. If the wave comes out anything like how the euro did at 18z or the ggem, uk, etc., that just about takes a total whiff off the table and there’s way more upside than downside.
-
Agreed, most of the forum would get 4-8” more after 144 it appears, looks solid to gain some lat after that frame.
-
I just want to see that energy come out without issue. 18z euro and ai check that box. then we look at the confluence downstream for the next round of changes in track from hrs 96 and on. Tomorrow we’ll hopefully get confirmation the s/w will eject eastward.
-
I’m mobile but don’t hate the euro this far at h5. Looks to be mainly slower as Randy and co alluded to earlier.
-
The key is that we continue to see no issue ejecting this eastward out of Baja. if the thing that keeps it south is simply confluence, we see that often times retract northward in the mid range. Good to see on AI/op euro that continues
-
The kicker is inevitable Mitch. We have endured 10 years of this failure my friend.
-
I didn’t look. Saw poster above allude to rgem. Just looked at the 18z icon and gfs runs.
-
Gfs isn’t going to do it. Hope it’s just being stubborn but with the ai going a bit south you wonder. I don’t really ever consider the icon but it was in the no go camp and I’d argue the 18z rgem was as well.
-
Basically, if it comes out even in some decent way, someone in the east is more or less guaranteed a high impact winter storm
-
Charlottesville has 26-32” on the app between SAT & SUN. Let the hysteria begin.
-
I don’t know, because mine has 15-18” for Sunday alone… with a high of 14
