DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Love seeing the totals there in a correction run. Have to think of more phasing occurs those numbers are between rich and Baltimore areas. Shows what kind of potential this has and that run didn’t even do the full Monty.
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Yes, we’ve seen what the runs that do it look like. Gfs was close.
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Love that the run looks really solid but this looks as a major upside option. The ceiling for this is definitely a HECS level event, even if not likely.
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It’s a really nice course correction from 12z taking the mass fail scenario back to close to off table. Seeing its AI be way better at 18z also helps a whole lot.
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I actually would lean towards reality ending up a pretty clean phase if we can get those pieces where this frame has them. Nice correction back in the right direction for the gfs.
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H120 is going to be key for many…
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I like the sharpness in the n/s feature and the best energy being on the backside to possibly promote downstream phasing.
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That could end up with a G… or an F… downstream if the gfs doesn’t f this up.
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Some of the models have shown the n/s getting a little quick, which wouldn’t kill the storm quite like the Baja s/w getting buried, but it would reduce the probability of long duration precipitation and some Of the high end upside.
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It’s definitely not over 12z, but it’s not a bad look. Probably another 4-6 for the area after 120.
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Time for the real 18z models..and a Prozac. Main focus is efficient release of the Baja s/w and no further slowing of that and timeline on arrival of precip.
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What I really see here is the major divergence more so would come between the 84-108 window of time…none of these are that much different from a NA500 hemispheric perspective.
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Yet zwyts can post here to tell us he can’t post here? It was confusing. i too agree with the EPS trend gif being my favorite part of 12z, maybe minus the UK thrashing us all again
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Hope the big 3 airports are all closed.
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That has already begun trust me.
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Might as well root for a bit more amped to put the snow line just south of bob chill’s yard so we get into the heaviest meat at gametime haha
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I gotta see the maps. I thought h5 looked pretty good that run but qpf seemed kinda paltry on Randy’s maps for the phasing being “clean” coming east.
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The euro has been insistent on the “part 2” picking up the slack on its runs. Later hours allows the low to creep north and the n/s element keeps the snow guns on for quite a while.
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It helped a ton that it snowed for long duration and the phasing got DC/Balt into the goods there after h129. Wide precip field. Through 129 there wasn’t that great of totals Qpf wise.
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Definitely not folks, seems ok. Maybe I’m wrong but a step back.
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It’s kinda crazy too because it was a historic top “couple” DEC storms of all time for our region and 20” totals in plenty of spots, and it happened relatively easy. There wasn’t a ton of sweat in that tracking either minus the little north creep at the end to really get everyone.
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And 26 years to the date of the 1/25/00 miracle.
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If the euro does at 12z what it was cooking at 6z when the run ended, it’ll look similar to those UK maps.
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Well the UK met looks strong again, MECS+ for a majority of the sub.
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I am mobile, but was gonna say, that doesn’t look like an appreciable step back. Qpf max in similar spot, definitely not like the op.
