DDweatherman
-
Posts
5,998 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by DDweatherman
-
I actually agree with this. I find they’re meeting in the middle and have moved towards each other since yesterday, including some of the aspects where the Euro has moved more towards the GFS (snow on the backside of the storm).
-
Can someone post a total QPF map for the 12z runs, at least NAM and GFS? GFS seemed pretty damn wet.
-
A second reply to say the coastal is closer to the coast and the models are trending in the gfs direction of giving a change back to snow for some and adding several inches, it’s at least something to watch.
-
Yeah I know my BY can afford a little wiggle room vs metros obviously, but I am okay with everyone winning and getting 10+ OTG and rolling dice from there; see where the chips fall. RGEM thumped super hard at 12z too.
-
I agree in some ways, especially since no one’s complaining if we get a 2014 10-14” thump
-
That is exactly what we want to see, and hopefully models respond as such.
-
Does anyone have the total QPF map from the nam?
-
I think somewhere in between for now sounds the “most” accurate. Nam definitely was closer to keeping the sleet lines SE especially towards the back half of the storm. If it didn’t shoot the ML warm nose northward so quickly this run, the totals would have looked similar to the FV or at the very least a lot closer.
-
I agree, it’s a product of the shifts that @psuhoffman shared. Again; there were positives for sure.
-
I’m taking the positives out of it, because I agree it was a fair bit better in a lot of ways. This anomalous airmass is extremely impressive and I know warm air to tongues can easily screw the mid levels, but we don’t have a screaming jet sending in a firehouse here like we have sometimes to just send it all to shit.
-
A lot of analysis for the 12z Nam at 48 hrs…cycle through the last 6 runs at h5 and surface and tell me you’d make a forecast off it?
-
I could even see back and forth precip types N/W of 95 depending on intensity for a time.
-
6z suite looked pretty good mostly, euro looks colder as the precip moves in then just warms slightly quicker. Noise mostly, but obviously has meso implications depending on area. The thump seems to lock in 6-8 for most even down to the SE.
-
I think I like 10-15” for your backyard, and I SHOULD be far enough n/w for 12-18” (wishful thinking?)
-
It’s also location based
-
What does the ole FV3 show? Saw a comment but mobile, can’t pull it up at the moment.
-
The NAM’s run to run differences are amusing to say the least. I’m not that worried after seeing most of what the 18z suite had to offer us.
-
Definitely an all snow sounding there.
-
Oh it’s easily snow for DC.
-
My oldest is exactly 6 and ALSO hasn’t seen the same. Good looking map, we’re excited for this one. New sled is on the way. 18z suite looked a bit better.
-
Still not him, not yet.
-
I feel like there are some good places in the Gettysburg area that would be a fun spot for this. What kind of place are you looking for? If I don't answer in a minute, I will in first thing in the AM. It's been a long day and I might doze off here in a sec.
-
This has some excitement factor IMBY as well, the kids have never seen more than a 6" storm yet.
-
January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!
DDweatherman replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
the beginning of the end perhaps? We've staved off the rug pull for quite some time. All the model readers talked about how it was better...til it sucked. -
Especially advection precip, not usually an issue.
