DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Very nice Mitch, the MOGREPS didn't actually do too bad with this past storm (I think at least )
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Ask some of the folks here, no way we can make up that time...
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Liked some of the changes up top vs 12z. We COULD be back at approximately 1225am
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Just need a little less positive tilt on the backside. Definitely still in the game.
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Waiting for Randy's next few panels to say the Euro is better... not sure I see it based on these panels. Then again I didn't see h5 just Atari surface maps.
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Well to quit already would be silly. A day ago this wasn't even a possibility, then we saw multiple model suites, ensembles, and AI models give varying solutions that were hits or close. I myself don't love this threat, but its a lot less dead right now than it was this time yesterday even...
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I mean, I don't like it either. There's a reason for the 10 year big snow drought...
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People don't realize how small of a change in 1 or 2 factors here would have drastic downstream effects on this one...
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It's the slightest bit east with the mean low, but more tucked solutions and definitely deeper mb wise.
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132
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Better than 12z, just manually inputted the URL to confirm lol
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The ICON was almost another way to win a good storm, the case of a N/S digging and closing off passing where we'd like it to give us good snow. Just a few hours too late on the formation and tilting of the trough.
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If we do care about the NAM, it's worse up top to our NE than 12z. Done looking at it though, so no further discussion lol.
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Yeah I'd really want to see consistent runs showing that evolution between now and Wednesday. We have 48 hours, by hour 60 in the run we just had some knew it was going to be a bit east.
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Definitely need that PV placement for a good block in place.
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Yes, I'm thinking new england would be the place to be for this last second comeback. It does the short term overcorrect, then tends to "re-correct" back the other way. That said, we've seen a lot happen.
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Probably won't be getting wrecked at day 0 either lol. Let's hope though.
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Not really, in my head I only still have this at about a 20% chance of happening.
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Let me be the voice of reason a bit folks, this is still a northern stream dominant phase/close off solution. It did kind of pop back in "medium range", but its a long way off for this type of variable-complex driven solution. The models struggle with N/S waves often times, especially in these cases.
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That was a somewhat unusual evolution as well... and an awesome way to stack snow on the backside of the ULL. Insane ratios and all about blizzard conditions for a while.
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ICON made a pretty good move towards the euro as did its ensembles. Anyone have the 0z UK?
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I think it was or Tuesday perhaps, which is equal to where we are now.
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To reply to MYSELF, at about this range the gfs started trending away from the storm we just had then had to spend a whole day coming back.
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GFS is a step back from 0z and 6z for sure.
