There’s no way this came about 10 days before our first of 3 blizzards in the greatest winter we’ve ever had (though my current town might have gotten more in 13-14).
It’s definitely a move towards the gfs this run, not going to be “all that close” to what the gfs showed….BUT remember it’s minutia differences that make big implications downstream.
I'm more interested in that swath over central VA just shifting north over us. I think that's almost more possible than the low itself bombing and scooting north.
It's probably a moot point because the GFS is an ass of a model, but give me that h5 on some of the other major models and I bet we are dancing. If the euro even moves in that direction some at 18z or 0z, it would be a nice development.
I mean...not really, it's on the backside of the vort this time. If anything, that energy might look to phase in and not kick it. Looks far enough NW at h5 to me.