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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    14 degrees here at the moment. Don’t hate these temperatures.
  2. DDweatherman
    Models all on board minus the Nam, let’s cave for shits and giggles at 0z for poetic justice.
  3. DDweatherman
    Even the icon improved. AIFS has been strong for us during this too. Some of the mesos beefed up this afternoon. Nams need a 0z cave.
  4. DDweatherman
    Why is the euro doubling down on being basically the snowiest model for us? Gfs and UKMET were aggressive on 18z too.
  5. DDweatherman
    I gotta go back and check but that might be better than 12z for some? Definitely is juicy around our yards.
  6. DDweatherman
    Gfs was actually colder. N/W crew gets taken to the impound lot.
  7. DDweatherman
    I thought the fv3 was the next gen gfs? And I had heard here it wasn’t going to make it to the big game for a while still if it did
  8. DDweatherman
    that actually made me laugh out loud. Serious question for a sec, why did the FV3 GFS replacement never game big time? on this storm, it has been consistently colder and snowier for most than the other suites, but not all that different than the OP GFS. Does it have a published cold bias that just can’t be corrected?
  9. DDweatherman
    Just like HighRisk reminded us that the short term US models do know thermals, do need we to remind you the Euro’s resolution is better than that of all models outside the 3k NAM?
  10. DDweatherman
    Especially important when the thermal profile is determined by rate dependencies…everything in a WAA thump with advancing ML warm intrusion.
  11. DDweatherman
    I agree it’s had value before, but that doesn’t diminish the horrible accuracy of the NCEP short term model suite. The blanket NAM sucks might be silly, but it’s also the anomaly on precipitation amounts vs the other suites. There’s a reason they’re all being decommissioned, and SOME of them don’t even make it to commissioning at all.
  12. DDweatherman
    Hope you taking the Nam over the euro is as dumb as it SHOULD be.
  13. DDweatherman
    Happens every run, never learn.. it was better earlier, then it got past its useful range of 12 hours out.
  14. DDweatherman
    Eh the r/s line is a fair bit south out in the TN valley and so is the overall precip shield.
  15. DDweatherman
    Anyone in Nashville have accumulations to report? Looks like it’s been snowing nicely there for a while.
  16. DDweatherman
    Good thing it starts in 15 hours, that does help.
  17. DDweatherman
    That’s definitely sleet unfortunately.
  18. DDweatherman
    All for Boston to laugh at us when they pick up 20” in this…fitting end to yet another disaster for us. Just hope it thumps, and when it doesn’t we can sail off into the sunset.
  19. DDweatherman
    Just need to root for the best model in the world and its AI companion. I guess if we’re down to the end here, it’s a good teammate to have.
  20. DDweatherman
    Closer to hour 30, even worse. It’s QPF inconsistency is volatile even when we’re tracking inside hour 12.
  21. DDweatherman
    If 13z went out as far, it would be different. The US mesoscale sweet is literal trash outside of 25%-40% its range. (HRRR hr 12, Nam/3k hr 36, rap and RRFS hour 0)
  22. DDweatherman
    Wxmodels page doesn’t have kuchie like pivotal for icon, 10:1
  23. DDweatherman
    6z RRFS map
  24. DDweatherman
  25. DDweatherman
    Basically, Euro folds to the GFS then the GFS folds to what the Euro or the warmer models were. Lost 1-2 inches in most places from 0z-6z gfs; 6” line moved NW. Lost 5” IMBY.
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