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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I see it, I agree. Makes sense and could actually get better. I think thats why some things looked worse but others looked better and had the boom potential...still ended up a good run.
  2. DDweatherman
    Best run yet of the AI GFS I believe. It's a crappy model, but its been moving in the right direction.
  3. DDweatherman
    That's kind of what I'm seeing. So long as the rest of the 12z suite doesn't look hateful, I think some people might need watches later this aftn.
  4. DDweatherman
    To be honest, minus 3 feet over Chestertown, this distribution of snow totals and the numbers NW of the fall line to the bay COULD happen at this point. IVT looks impressive as well with a lot of coastal influence even on the other 12z runs.
  5. DDweatherman
    As long as the GFS doesn't make too many more moves SE, this run went about 30-40 miles in that direction, feeling like this has some teeth. ICON, RGEM, and NAM all made moves in the GFS direction here at 12z.
  6. DDweatherman
    Agreed, AI GFS got better again as well.
  7. DDweatherman
    The low getting going and deepening is important to cleaning up the column when the heavies get going. Glad this is Feb 22nd not March 2nd, not a huge difference but it helps.
  8. DDweatherman
    The other models are trending towards the GFS still, and so the compromise continues to improve... we didn't expect a full cave to GFS and capture type of modeled solution. This is good stuff.
  9. DDweatherman
    6z was a good move, need to keep the beat going.
  10. DDweatherman
    I stuck up for you getting a hard time from people a few weeks ago, but this morning you’re bringing the heat upon yourself…
  11. DDweatherman
    Sadly, there isn’t much use. You’d just rather them be in your camp than not.
  12. DDweatherman
    I actually was thinking this. It’s not really much of a “compromise” look. Gotta pick a side and then extrapolate from there.
  13. DDweatherman
    Shit I hope dc gets 20, if they do you’d be on the way back anyways. Seems almost statiscally impossible at this point the gfs has this magically nailed while others look so much different…
  14. DDweatherman
    Stay in the Richmond, VA “anals” please
  15. DDweatherman
    I’ve seen many of those ways on both sides, I can concur.
  16. DDweatherman
    Is perhaps 10/1 showing bigger #’s and that’s where SV got their totals?
  17. DDweatherman
    Just a few runs ago, that piece wasn’t really as much of a player, right? I only really resumed looking at this this afternoon, but I know there’s some differences in evolution there. It wouldn’t be too much weenie casting to say as this new feature gets a little better forecasted/sampled, we might get a little better clarity.
  18. DDweatherman
    It seems east of 18z but isn’t earth shattering. A lot of energy aloft to sort through. Some things better aloft coming in, some worse.
  19. DDweatherman
    At least you’re more consistent than some of these models
  20. DDweatherman
    I just thought about what night it was. Is it him or Wwxluvr that said they get angry Thursday nights?
  21. DDweatherman
    In most years the way we’ve been running. Trust me, I didn’t want to get on the plane back from Texas this evening… that weather was mint. We’re damaged goods at this point.
  22. DDweatherman
    Looking at these runs upstairs, we might STILL be a 12-24 hour window from the final-ish solution. This is such a chaotic and developing situation. Relatively small margins can create huge downstream implications.
  23. DDweatherman
    Of course, but that doesn’t mean less accuracy closer in. It means broader brush precip and edges
  24. DDweatherman
    Unreal how many times were mid decent trend in the right direction at 18z euro wise, then it just goes way in the tiger direction at 0 with the ai and parent.
  25. DDweatherman
    Sure, I think BWI flies to Hobby in Houston too but that’s SW? I’m a United guy so IAD to IAH. Usually I find Dulles a little cheaper in those situations. I don’t have a “close” airport but 3 options all 1h 15 to 1h 25.
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