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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. Seems funny. Icon and rgem were again better up top at h5 too. Former more so than the later equated a bit at the sfc
  2. I’m really gaining a bit of confidence with the solutions we are seeing, the Nam looked really solid leading into about h42, got a little more messy after that, but one more move west for a cleaner phase & tilt and it’s a boom scenario for most of us.
  3. Nam is trending towards yesterday’s GFS runs. One more improvement at h5 and it’s gonna have 18-24 over I-95
  4. There isn’t a model I’d put less weight into at the moment. It has been horrid.
  5. To be fair, I’m still expecting 1-2” IMBY. I like the trends but so much fail potential. That said, to assume the euro isn’t going to go west more or show more improvement at h5 after the move it just made may not be wise.
  6. The euro is making nice incremental h5 shifts every other run. That was the best h5 look yet, but the surface isn’t quite as beefy to correspond.
  7. I’m mainly just looking at h5 and the tilt at h57, a bit more south at the base and a cleaner interaction of the energy. That and the sfc low is absolutely further west which at the very least influences the IVT a good bit.
  8. Watches will probably go up this afternoon further east and up the coast a bit seeing this development.
  9. Time for it to piss us off like it quite literally always does. 6z was better than 0z which was worse than 18z which was a lot better than yday’s 12z…
  10. @stormtracker you on euro pbp for 12z? Also I pm’d you. maybe you decided to buy WiFi on the plane???
  11. What I'd like to see is the base of the h5 a bit more south these next few runs this aftn and evening. That and we'd like to see things sharper unless the whole orientation is going to slow down a bit and allow what we need despite a broader trough.
  12. Can only hope the trends are a sign the gfs is the one with the central solution and hope the others keep going. The damn euro is starting to look like the odd man out...I'm sure it still will in an hour.
  13. Figures that our favorite member grey hat will probably get 2' in this storm... mother nature does some funny things.
  14. I agree, NE is more about less of a capture and slightly progressive move but still a solid low pressure track. CMC was improved at 12z vs 0z (not surprising given the RGEM). Of course its all on to see what the damn euro does.
  15. I see it, I agree. Makes sense and could actually get better. I think thats why some things looked worse but others looked better and had the boom potential...still ended up a good run.
  16. Best run yet of the AI GFS I believe. It's a crappy model, but its been moving in the right direction.
  17. That's kind of what I'm seeing. So long as the rest of the 12z suite doesn't look hateful, I think some people might need watches later this aftn.
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