DDweatherman

Put my ji hat on to say the overnight and morning runs will be just enough of a COC tease to then crush souls when the rgem is closest to right or the euro/AI abandons us like an orphan at 1230.

Noise differences up top on the gfs at h5 in the wrong direction made for a step back a bit.

If it snows 4” I’m getting a tattoo of Roy Orbison.

I guess..there’s not much good there for us. Uk is a fair bit from where we’d want it

Fv3 6z to 12z was much improved so I wouldn’t tie that directly to gfs.

Need it to also be good at qpf in this case…

We’d all welcome and accept with open arms. Something tells me the final chapter on this one isn’t written yet. That said, the euro will probably do what it’s been good at recently…lead us all down a dark alley then leave us for dead

In weenie fashion, what I’m taking from the “ass” models - SREF, RRFS, etc. is that they made huge moves from 6z to 12z, much like the 3k Nam did and even the 12k to some extent. At least lends credence to that crack rock the gfs has been smokin on since last night.

If this happens I’m offing myself.

I have a hunch the gfs might look kinda like the Nam in a bit here.

Past hour 6***

3k Nam made a big move as well towards the snowier camp. Lots more phasing earlier on.

Edit to say it’s gonna be a bigtime run for the south coast folks, lots of phasing evident early on. I may not be able to make it up to CT for work Monday morning

It does indeed, bet this shows something of implication for the 84 and south folk up your way.

There’s some good content here but for you to write this type of post on a Saturday morning during coffee time addressing the wall that is Chuck, you need a bourbon and a Prozac.

Why do we always end up back at the shit gfs showing the solution we want the most? there’s been good trends north on many models, but gfs is coldest at the surface

Knew 6z AI would be its usual step back just from peeking at h5 maps showing slightly less interaction of streams. 6z almost always sucks.

Definitely looks north. H36 streams are oriented closer to each other, may show some interaction in the later frames.

Anyone have AI EPS/Eps yet? Interested what kinda stream interaction they might show

Don’t worry I’m sure the AI will be over Jacksonville at 18z

@bncho you have a euro map?

I don't think so good sir, GFS had about .5-1" for some I think? AI has been baiting us since yesterday back and forth. That was one of its more aggressive runs though.

Obligatory post for obs purposes to say its a bright & sunny 25 degrees this morning, still about 3-4" snowcover in the yard It is amazing up there, congratulations on the business move and the success. My wife would never let us move from somewhere not far from here, but I've been toying with where I'd want that second place to be. It was FL before, and to be honest, these winters have made me care less and less about snow thanks to the repeated screw jobs... but we're all weenies at heart. The other place I'd consider is out near Denver in the northwest hills - Black Hawk or somewhere at some higher elevation where snow is more frequent but there are plenty of sunny days and its 20 degrees warmer 2 days after snow.

Jealous, I've chased LES events there and its a wonderland... should be fun. Wonder how they statistically do in ninos up there?

That’s the same way I feel, it’s absolute bullshit. Especially up here in the pretty far N/W burbs, where that storm can absolutely drop 18” if we don’t have bad trends the last 24-36 hours to penetrate the primary so much more north and a razor thin ass warm nose at 925…