DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Maps coming out now, I'll defer to our friends that like to post them, its a FOLKS.
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I'm 90% sure Euro is FOLKS for quite a few in the sub based on the precip maps.
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It's a drubbing for most. I'll lock that in right now.
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You guys living and dying by one model run at 96 hours is impressive. Even if the Euro looks like the CMC, that doesn't mean thats what's happening. I didn't know the outcome is determined by a couple runs 4 days out. Sure there are some amped runs in there as a trend, but let's look at the synoptics and also we've seen a lot of systems de-amp in the mid range.
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That's what I was saying. A banana 1040mb+ HP dome being driven into by a low thats not even sub 1000mb? Unlikely.
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Well and the other thing is we’d rather Randy be conservative and say it’s a wee bit drier than it end up wetter. If he honked it was a qpf bomb and ended up drier, we’d have him tied up in the corner
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Def was drier panel to panel, but then the run itself went postal for us all don’t think anyone’s complaining!
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they’re both right. Randy was comparing panel to panel, bncho the run and the feed overall. I get the 1 person on pbp but don’t give the unnecessary hate when he’s also not wrong sheesh. You guys have nothing better to do but blast a teenager (not saying you Kenny).
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6z Euro is a FOLKS worthy panel for the dc Baltimore crew.
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Does anyone have a good final totals map from the 2014 event? From what I remember the N/W crew (which I was not a part of at that time) totaled 20” in spots
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I think what you’re saying for the group is heights are a bit lower in the east
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2014 is exactly what came to mind @WxUSAF when I saw some of the 0z suite. One of the best WAA thumps we’ve had of the last 25 years.
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Will, is the QPF map through the entirety? I’m thinking its hard for places to get 6” of snow off 10:1 ratios with .48 qpf…
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Good thump for most of the sub, 8-12” before the lowlanders SE of 95 would have mixing issues. Transfers to a low off VA near the end of the run, but cuts off for most at hour 120. Not at the computer for nice graphics, trying to log into wxmodels site to paste a total QPF/snow, but hasn’t loaded there yet.
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ICON at 6z joins the more amped camp, out thru 102 with heavies over most of the sub and a low down in the south. It’s going to be a huge hit, but will review uppers. Phase occurring a lot fair west earlier/cleaner than prior runs.
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GEFS is a beaut, love to see the northward creep and bump in QPF.
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In some of the top biguns CHO tends to do really well, I could see them over to to EZF being a jack zone
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A wall of overrunning precip 600-800 miles wide can put down some big numbers.
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I do agree, I feel like it would have to put down those 2’ totals through a prolonged event and backside CCB with high ratios…not as much a low capture or neg tilt that bombs a low off the capes.
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Love seeing the totals there in a correction run. Have to think of more phasing occurs those numbers are between rich and Baltimore areas. Shows what kind of potential this has and that run didn’t even do the full Monty.
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Yes, we’ve seen what the runs that do it look like. Gfs was close.
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Love that the run looks really solid but this looks as a major upside option. The ceiling for this is definitely a HECS level event, even if not likely.
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It’s a really nice course correction from 12z taking the mass fail scenario back to close to off table. Seeing its AI be way better at 18z also helps a whole lot.
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I actually would lean towards reality ending up a pretty clean phase if we can get those pieces where this frame has them. Nice correction back in the right direction for the gfs.
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H120 is going to be key for many…
