DDweatherman

I have three children, I would perhaps give a nut to make that UK run come to fruition. Or the CMC’s 18” blizzard too.

The ggem and uk just went ballistic. The big ones do lock in early…we def don’t want to peak 132 hrs out.

Lotta random energy on UK, that other models don’t have in a similar fashion. Don’t hate that it still brings us snow, south of 0z amped run.

Good point, to be honest the Canadian showed a “middle ground” outcome. Could’ve been a HECS in all honesty lol. Just another model run but damn.

No it doesn’t

It’s a folks run, stop giving us this explanation for a d6 run. Might not be anywhere close to what happens, but it’s a folks and a half. I’m gooning over it as we speak

Randy, if that’s not a folks, you need psychiatric intervention.

I’ve been reading and interpreting model runs for 15 years, this isn’t textbook for us in many ways. That said, can still score a decent event with a singular stream wave and some tapping of gulf moisture.

There’s the option that things come out, and a phase doesn’t happen. Could still give us love, but wouldn’t be the bomb. to be honest, a setup like this…I think we have to be a bit greedy to make up for the misses we’ve had since 2016 in some areas.

Who used to do our pbp back when it used to snow, like 2009-10, 2013-16 years? JFC

What’s the obsession with storm threads? The grown adults can handle being focused on a storm during a real window. Mods will be tightening early if this looks legit.

My goodness.. all time record low in DC if it happened

I love where we are at this juncture. The cold is almost always slightly over modeled at range. The only true way we get completely burned in this is congrats Carolina’s. I’d take a low that travels up to WV knowing with this antecedent airmass and wedge we’d lay down 6-12” in thumping fashion over to some high impact sleet/zr if that’s what it came to. Let’s reel this one in.

We need this one, love what the AI’s are spitting out and their consistency. They’ve performed quite well lately, so to see where they sit at this juncture can’t be bad. Like seeing the UKMET join them. I’d argue that model does really well at these leads at showing a solution that is close to actual sometimes…before it bounces around like a pinball machine.

GEFS looks like it should be solid.

Damn right. It’s a dart board at this juncture anyways.

I do think Ralph was talking about letting this forum keep you and he’d stay in PA. But it’s hard to read people’s cryptic messaging. You guys bashing Ji’s insufferable posting is so funny to me. He just has the audacity to bitch and moan about the things half of you pathetic snow weenies think in your head but are smart enough to refrain from saying. There’s plenty of folks in here that would have a bad day or kick their dog after a bad set of 12z runs during tracking… here’s to hoping today’s 12z can keep our window in tact for next weekend. I wouldn’t mind seeing 1 or 2 fantasy hits to goon over while the ensembles honk the window.

Maybe they have the early access 0z runs

For reference, euro had basically nothing for these areas (<0.5”) at 0z. 6z was a bit better, but euro seems to still be catching up to the mesos and the Canadian of all models with the fronto/RER driven precip

The snow west of 95 back to the 15/81 folks tomorrow is mainly fronto forcing based; not all that much dissimilar to today: need good jet/vorticity for this. The coastal isn’t having much influence.

How much is from today?

Oh yes, damn straight. A key rule, 3B.

Love the potential that’s there. Just need moisture and the blocking/cold done up over the top, and we should score snow and wintry precip in good magnitude barring a massive letdown.

Such a pusspop for an hr192 frame. Who cares if it’s folks or not it’ll look different in 6 hrs, just say it. No one cares if it goes flat, we’re deprived.

Could tell this morning where radar was that map and NE would get the local jack